Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

I don't think so NB. You want em to be exactly equal lows or a penny or two off might be ok, but you're looking at $0.32 difference there. I'd worry about the double top and move on to greener pastures for a while. Did you sell calls for BMHC?

[New-born baby]

Yup

I don't think so NB. You want em to be exactly equal lows or a penny or two off might be ok, but you're looking at $0.32 difference there. I'd worry about the double top and move on to greener pastures for a while. Did you sell calls for BMHC?

Yup, I sold the calls, but I am in the green on them. I could cash out and forget this one. Almost did that at the close today. Too risky to hang around. If she gaps up at the open tomorrow, I might need to stick around. Otherwise, hausta luego, baby.

[Runner]

Spike I thought you would like this chart of DELL. Purple line detects volatility out 21 days with a 20 period smoothing. Notice the increase as price plunges.

[spikefader]

Spike I thought you would like this chart of DELL. Purple line detects volatility out 21 days with a 20 period smoothing. Notice the increase as price plunges.

Runner! You got that right. Check out these 2 charts!

The bigger ascending triangle for the indicator jumps from the page in my 1st chart. But also look at the second chart for a separate short entry. Thanks dude!

[Lyehopper]

So what's your target?

Runner! You got that right. Check out these 2 charts!

The bigger ascending triangle for the indicator jumps from the page in my 1st chart. But also look at the second chart for a separate short entry. Thanks dude!

Exactly how would you play this? Hypothetically of course.

[Runner]

Spike awesome job with the chart. You sure get me thinking!!!

[Runner]

billyjoe this chart of the S&P500 shows about a 22% profit. Once indicator dropped below lower trend line I guess one could have jumped off the ship. Nice channel formed here with nice bouncing action. I guess this indicator shows a nice channel with a little support and resistance. Notice the huge volatility that occurred before this channel.

[Runner]

Here is the current daily on SP-500. Notice the break out

[billyjoe]

Spike, Runner, New-born,
Is there a quick way to calculate an oversold stock just by looking at volume bars red/blue compared to daily volume average and price?


billyjoe

[Runner]

Spike, Runner, New-born,
Is there a quick way to calculate an oversold stock just by looking at volume bars red/blue compared to daily volume average and price?


billyjoe

Billyjoe, I’ve never herd that before. Volume normally will increase during a healthy uptrend or down trend. Once the buyers or sellers are done it is normal to see volume turn very light before the next push.

[billyjoe]

What is considered a healthy ratio of shorts vs. float on a stock? At what point does bullishness on a stock turn bearish?

billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Rsi

Spike, Runner, New-born,
Is there a quick way to calculate an oversold stock just by looking at volume bars red/blue compared to daily volume average and price?


billyjoe

BillyJoe,
The RSI will show you 'oversold/overbought' conditions. IB has that running real time in their free charting service.

[spikefader]

Exactly how would you play this? Hypothetically of course.

Lye, several ways to play it.

1st: Short the stock after the bullish breakout of the green ascending triangle by the purple indicator line. That breakout signifies potential for volatility to rise to the X target line in the days ahead (which is what eventually happened you'll note). So that bullish breakout of the indicator coincided with a bullish day in the stock, so it's a gift to short into that strength. Make sense? (EDIT: actually, the purple line may not have 'broken out' until the day after that strenght, and in any case, that breakout is the reason you're shorting, whether it's into strength or not)(and in fact, it's even better that volatility is bullish during selloff in stock price - this means that price action in the stock is suddenly moving IN LINE with increasing volatility, which is like a confirmation that the short side is good).

2nd: You could wait for the breakout of the indicator to fail to support areas, i.e. the yellow channel line where I have written the yellow 'entry' and you see the gray line falling, that's the move you are catching. The indicator bounced from that yellow channel support and rallied to the X target, which is volatility rallying, which coincides with selloff of the stock.

3rd: short entry in the stock about 4 days ago when the purple line retraced back to the green horizontal ascending triangle support area. You'll note it bounced from that support, and gave the short profit over the last 4 days.

4th: this is the most aggressive and late play, is to short the boom bullish break by the purple line out of the yellow channel, which was close of Thursday, to catch the volatile move down on Friday.

So as you see, it's all about equal and opposite nature of volatility as an indicator. Increased volatility usually corresponds to selloff in stocks. All you have to do is find the breakout/support areas of the indicator, and short the stock based off that 'action'.

[skiracer]

Billyjoe,
Here's an explanation of the RSI indicator an an example of an oversold stock and what opportunity it can offer. Right now there are plenty of decent stocks out there that are way oversold. The TA sharks are always on top of these just like they were with FRGB the other day. It's not written in stone but it goes down that way alot if you're aware of it and looking for those situations. I think Monday morning will present a few of these with a bounce up because of this type of situation across the board.

[ForeverInvesting]

Another Example of Runner's Volatility Indicator

See chart below.