Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Websman]

OK, I'm a bull again. Took +100 in dow futes position and will be looking for long entry on Monday. Vector convincingly bullish at close. Weekly channel longs on weekly SPX, INDU, and COMPX (expanding). Where's that bullish avatar I had lying around here.......

OK, let's have a look at BCRX, NGS, and HLEX....

I'm a step ahead of you bro. I used my Vulcan powers to bring the bull back a few days ago.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=28756&postcount=83

[dmk112]

Spike, don't you think we will get a bounce from being oversold and then sell off again?

[IIC]

Spike, don't you think we will get a bounce from being oversold and then sell off again?

Geez...I just posted the same thing in the portfolio thread...I didn't see your post before I posted it either...IIC

[spikefader]

Well dmk and IIC, I'm actually very bullish again for whatever that's worth. Call me an optimist

My gut says big rally and I think shorts may be about to get their heads handed to them; but where's the logic in that?! haha.

Evidence to support long case: I'm looking at the weekly vix chart. This past week's candle spells trend reversal to me, and we all should know by now that declining vix means rally. I'm also looking at Qs high bullish volume Thurs and Friday, and the weekly Qs candle whispers trend reversal. That's coming off a channel long. So is S&P and Dow. I note EFA has a nice cupnhandle off an uptrend, and that's coming off a channel long too. SPY is coming off major channel long too, and from an area of vol by price that's impressive. Despite the SPY drop, weekly money flow has remained positive, as has S&P money flow. I note the conflict in P&F targets for all those, Qs bullish, $SPX bearish, $INDU bearish, SPY bullish. That's a mess heh. But bottom line is what yall expect to be an oversold bounce could easily get some traction as the Dow rallies 300 points to resistance.

[IIC]

Spike...from a technical perspective...I agree with you...but what is there to really get excited about?...Bankruptcies for all these people that didn't meet the deadline???...Foreclosures in '06-'08...The CPI...The big Boys/Gals claim the core CPI was OK...What???...We don't drive anymore?...We don't need to heat our houses??? I paid 305.9 for reg. gas last week...Fortunately I drive a co. car and have a gas card...And I live near the beach in So. Cal so I don't really use heat and I don't even have A/C at my house...But it has to hurt the majority. I fail to see anything to get excited about...Except a minor bounce.

I read today that Jewelry sales are expected to be great for the holdays (at Kitco.com) ...so maybe CTHR will bounce???

But anyway...About this new BK law...I personally blame the Banks and credit card issuers...and when it comes time I will blame the mortgage lenders...they all wanted this law...But their own crookedness(Well maybe it is not illegal...but their greed is unethical IMO) caused it to come into being...If I had my way, the CEO's and COO's of these outfits would be thrown to the wolves.

[Websman]

...The big Boys/Gals claim the core CPI was OK...What???...We don't drive anymore?...We don't need to heat our houses??? I paid 305.9 for reg. gas last week...But it has to hurt the majority. I fail to see anything to get excited about...Except a minor bounce.

So, let's put our bull suits on, but only for a couple of weeks. lol

Gas prices have definitely had an effect on me. I use to go fishing every other weekend. Now I'm down to once a month or less. My boat has a 40 gallon tank, which used to cost around $50 to fill up. Now it runs in the neighbor hood of $120. Then I have to put gas in my truck, to get the boat to the boat ramp. So my fishing trips have gotten more expensive.

It's not that I can't afford to pay extra for the gas. It's the principle of the whole thing. I expect to pay a high price for fuel in Europe, but this is America and I want my cheap gas.

Luckily, I live on a lake. I can still fish off of my dock.

[Runner]

I have not seen much to get all fired up about in the markets and for now I still remain in the bear camp. It will take more then a few up days to prove to me that the bulls want to play. Indices could not take out old highs and most of then failed on 3 attempts. Sectors do not look in good shape and leadership has been lacking. I think we are in a D/T’ers environment or maybe even a few day swings, but that is it.

[dmk112]

Spike, you forgot to mention the $COMPQ, the volume on this bounce is low compared to the drop and this usually follows another leg down. I think We are going to see the low's of May.. The COMPQ broke the very strong support @ 2100 and we know that now that becomes strong resistance. So maybe it bounces there (44 points away). Yes, its a rally but not really tradeble except for day traders and maybe one swing...

[spikefader]

Spike...from a technical perspective...I agree with you...but what is there to really get excited about?...Bankruptcies for all these people that didn't meet the deadline???...Foreclosures in '06-'08...The CPI...The big Boys/Gals claim the core CPI was OK...What???...We don't drive anymore?...We don't need to heat our houses??? I paid 305.9 for reg. gas last week...Fortunately I drive a co. car and have a gas card...And I live near the beach in So. Cal so I don't really use heat and I don't even have A/C at my house...But it has to hurt the majority. I fail to see anything to get excited about...Except a minor bounce.

I read today that Jewelry sales are expected to be great for the holdays (at Kitco.com) ...so maybe CTHR will bounce???

But anyway...About this new BK law...I personally blame the Banks and credit card issuers...and when it comes time I will blame the mortgage lenders...they all wanted this law...But their own crookedness(Well maybe it is not illegal...but their greed is unethical IMO) caused it to come into being...If I had my way, the CEO's and COO's of these outfits would be thrown to the wolves.

Yeah I agree with you about the crooks and the mortgage lenders. Ya know, if the economy really hits the skids and commodity prices keep rising, it's just a matter of time before there will be a lot of people with a lot of long-term debt to pay off and no money to do it with. What is going to happen to those people? They gonna lock them up?

And speaking fundamentally about what is there to get excited about, shoot, I'm bearish from a fundamental standpoint. But I've never been able to time the market well using fundamentals. Certainly not when you add emotion and fear to it. I think the U.S is in for some tough times, but maybe I'm just too pessimistic in that regard. But frankly, I don't put enough time into researching all the news, and reports and true meaning of them to justify trading off fundamentals. I'd be better off listening to you guys for that. But what I do know is that despite fundamentals the market can do nutso things and rally for no apparent reason. And when a market is rallying during a time when there is bad news, then that's your whisper that it's a bull market. And that is what has happened lately; rallies after bad news. I'm happy to catch it and exit with the right TA signs and then contemplate the fundamentals in my dreams (or more accurately, nightmares) and not let them get into my reality too much haha

[spikefader]

Spike, you forgot to mention the $COMPQ, the volume on this bounce is low compared to the drop and this usually follows another leg down. I think We are going to see the low's of May.. The COMPQ broke the very strong support @ 2100 and we know that now that becomes strong resistance. So maybe it bounces there (44 points away). Yes, its a rally but not really tradeble except for day traders and maybe one swing...

$COMPQ has a bullish chart too. That's an ascending triangle with price in solid vol by price support. At this point, logic targets X until the triangle fails, especially given the channel action (expanding minor channel long) and the count (c long entry). But I'll be cautious since the channel is expanding and be a sleeping bull whenever Vector takes me to bed.....but right now bullish is the bias. And from small things..........


in edit: readded chart (imageshack deleted original one)

[MEA_1956]

Fwiw

Things are realy slowing down at the bakery these last couple of weeks. Breads last dough was 6:00 pm -- Norm. 3:00 am mon. morn
Buns last dough is around 11:30 pm -- Norm. 6:00 am mon. morn

It seams like no one came even afford to buy bread or eat at a fast food. Burger King is one of our major accounts, not much happening there.

Marlin

[spikefader]

ELN short

[spikefader]

OK, let's have a look at BCRX, NGS, and HLEX....

BCRX. Very very strong. Channel turn up on Fri close was the last play for it. That price was around 16.80, and had you put a limit order in for today, you'd have filled at 16.20 or something and had no pain for the entry and all bull. Shame I didn't look at this one over the weekend. Would be playing out nicely now
NGS Do you see the channel long on Thursday there? That was your play.
HLEX The play was the channel long on Thursday. Nice move off it. Who doesn't like channels??? Point them out and I'll give them an uppercut. Channel longs are awesome. HLEX looks like it's starting to boom on the weekly. Buy the gap support is the play for this one, since it's at weekly channel resistance. That may be a runaway gap there last week, but I think it'll come back for a 2 or abc that will be worth buying. Great money flow this one.

[spikefader]

Took Dow futes long at 10335 a few minutes ago. 30 point stop and to target +300.

[spikefader]

OFG followers....I think it's headed to 8.00 support....Shorting HOD or 16.00 is where people will be selling.....another play is shorting the descending line in anticipation for a bearish break. That's a better r/r as you can put your stop above the descending line.

Well well well. It hit the gap fill target I mentioned earlier, and it just get worse.... weekly channel turn down and falling from heavy vol by price. This is what can happen after a weekly double top, then a big channel bust, gap down on volume. Learn from it, move on, and wait for the next setup. I wonder how many people who read all the posted TA held on anyway.... Is OFG an open MM pick still, I can't remember.