Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[RL]

Billy there are no Tasr types out there right now but there will be one of these days and If I find It you will be the first to know.

[grebnet]

Smit

Anyone here looked into SMIT ???
I traded it once last year and am looking again......any opinions ??

[noshadyldy]

Eln

I dunno Spike, you knows I loves ya, but maybe the timing will forbid TA to play out in favor of those afraid to let go in anticipation of the big pop. (and I do so truly hope that maintains a one "o" status.)

Went to a Holloween party after leg one of my travels. Went as MEDUSA! So in the haunting spirit, here's one smiling Medusa coming at ya!

(thanks Karel, I was really between a rock and a hard place with this one.)

[spikefader]

Someone, no I do not remember who, did a study on candlesticks and found that a flip of coin had the same probability of success.

Well nothing wrong with that success rate. I can live with 50% too. See, with good r/r and smart money management you can turn that into a fortune. It's not necessarily the number of winners that counts; it's how well you manage the losers and what your final averages are.

You can have a low success rate but if your r/r is tweaked to the max you are going to make good money.

Here is an example:
A futures trader has an embarrassing success rate of 30% or 3/10. BUT the losers only cost him 70 points. If his average winner is 200 points, then the three winning trades make 600 points, and after commissions (10 points) he is in profit a total of 520 points or $2600 for those 10 trades.
Can he live with the embarrassment of having such a low success rate? lol let me think.........ummmm......sheesh......his ego might say no, but his wallet and wife says yes.

So it's not always about the success rate dudes. It's about tweaking your money management against your low success rate to turn you profitable.

If you have a success rate of 50% then tweak the numbers. Make you average stop out -3% and your average winner +15%. So for 10 trades your losers cost you -15%, and your winners make you +75%. You are up 50%. Increase the average winner and decrease the average loser and the numbers improve very quickly. Eg, 2% average risk and 25% average winner, r/r of 12.5, even if you hit 2/10, your stops cost you -16% and your winners make you +50%, you're up +34% less commissions.

It comes down to controlling your trades, fixing your downside in the face of the embarrassment and the emotion. Be a machine, be patient, stalk your entries, optimize your risk/reward, don't get greedy with targets, be realistic and logical and never compromise a rule. Listen to what the market is telling you, accept its gifts and take the punishment, but above all be disciplined dudes.

[New-born baby]

TMY retrace

Spike,
I see our friend TMY has retraced all the way back to the starting line of about a month ago. Do you think it has possibilities?

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

Would you consider reposting your short setup on ELN again?It seems to have been lost by imageshack.I am considering it for my first short trade,and would like top shelf perspective before I dive in.

cordially Tom

[diogenes]

Well nothing wrong with that success rate. I can live with 50% too. See, with good r/r and smart money management you can turn that into a fortune. It's not necessarily the number of winners that counts; it's how well you manage the losers and what your final averages are.

You can have a low success rate but if your r/r is tweaked to the max you are going to make good money.

Here is an example:
A futures trader has an embarrassing success rate of 30% or 3/10. BUT the losers only cost him 70 points. If his average winner is 200 points, then the three winning trades make 600 points, and after commissions (10 points) he is in profit a total of 520 points or $2600 for those 10 trades.
Can he live with the embarrassment of having such a low success rate? lol let me think.........ummmm......sheesh......his ego might say no, but his wallet and wife says yes.

So it's not always about the success rate dudes. It's about tweaking your money management against your low success rate to turn you profitable.

If you have a success rate of 50% then tweak the numbers. Make you average stop out -3% and your average winner +15%. So for 10 trades your losers cost you -15%, and your winners make you +75%. You are up 50%. Increase the average winner and decrease the average loser and the numbers improve very quickly. Eg, 2% average risk and 25% average winner, r/r of 12.5, even if you hit 2/10, your stops cost you -16% and your winners make you +50%, you're up +34% less commissions.

It comes down to controlling your trades, fixing your downside in the face of the embarrassment and the emotion. Be a machine, be patient, stalk your entries, optimize your risk/reward, don't get greedy with targets, be realistic and logical and never compromise a rule. Listen to what the market is telling you, accept its gifts and take the punishment, but above all be disciplined dudes.

Perhaps, but that overlooks the veracity of the claims for any relationship between what the system models and what it is supposed to model.Any putative relationship is negated by the 50% rate, i.e., pure chance.

Edit: I realize this is your thread and the topic has most likely been beaten to death.
So, my apologies for cluttering up your thread with my post.

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,

Would you consider reposting your short setup on ELN again?It seems to have been lost by imageshack.I am considering it for my first short trade,and would like top shelf perspective before I dive in.

cordially Tom

Here you go. Today's intraday pivot is 8.33 and that's a good price to enter I think.

[noshadyldy]

Eln Vphm Ford

Yes, I'm beginning to see it too now. It just isn't pushing through. hmmmmm. How tight of a cover stop do you suggest, Spike? I will be away for another week starting this Saturday. Hate to loose an opportunity though.

Also, I had higher hopes for VPHM and FORD. Both losing steam now. Don't knock yourself out here with charts and such but do you have any thoughts off the top of your head?
Thanks.

[spikefader]

Spike,
I see our friend TMY has retraced all the way back to the starting line of about a month ago. Do you think it has possibilities?

I think we've missed the best entry for it (neckline break which already delivered 17% profit), but I think it's worth bidding for down lower to optimize r/r. The c failure supports the need for patience and bargain hunting for it.

[spikefader]

Perhaps, but that overlooks the veracity of the claims for any relationship between what the system models and what it is supposed to model.Any putative relationship is negated by the 50% rate, i.e., pure chance.

Edit: I realize this is your thread and the topic has most likely been beaten to death.
So, my apologies for cluttering up your thread with my post.

Oh no; not clutter at all. It's worth beating to death until we 'get it'.

I'm having trouble understanding your first paragraph - perhaps too many late nights hehe but you're saying my post "overlooks the accuracy of claims for a link between a system's model and what it is supposed to model. Any supposed link is offset by the 50% pure luck rate". OK, now I've reworded it I think I'm getting there.

So are you saying what I said is one thing, but the point is that the real performance of a model can't truly be assessed because it benefits from 50:50 luck?

Thanks for the contributions.

[spikefader]

...How tight of a cover stop do you suggest, Spike?..

OK, here are today's thoughts for it. Stop is over yesterday's high, so say 8.50, so less than 2% risk to target 25% 6.00 support areas.

[spikefader]

:d

I dunno Spike, you knows I loves ya.......
Went to a Holloween party after leg one of my travels. Went as MEDUSA! So in the haunting spirit, here's one smiling Medusa coming at ya!

noshadyldy! You makin' me blush heh.
You sure are welcome to pop that very pretty smiling Medusa in this thread any time you want. That photo is too easy to look at You jus' be lookin' so good girl!

[tokyojoeskid]

In your opinion

Spike,

I was gifted a Roth Ira and want to basically pick two stocks "buy and die" style. I was looking at XOM and MSFT. I won't have access to trade on this account and this is just going to be sitting there for a long time. I am 23 years old. So at least until I am 59 1/2. What is your take on these two technically right now. I can inform the givers when to make the purchase and what to buy.

And anyone else what are your favorite "buy and die" stocks right now? and why?

Appreciate any insight

thanks
TJk

[New-born baby]

Ugly Exxon

Spike,
Would you care to comment on XOM? I tell you, this thing is ugly. I've got a price target of $48- on this one. Very nasty. And today's volume was equal to the volume for an entire normal week! Crash!