Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings once again,

For informative purposes only,ZHNE which I mentioned a while back,had fallen down to the 1.80ish mark.since it has risen to mid 2s,but insiders this week have bought in to the tune of 6 million.

The chart looks hodgepodge to me,yet the CEO,CFO ,COO have dumped alot of money here this week,could be a deal in the works.

Sorry for boreing you folks to tears with these insider stories,I just remember the old quote "there are many reasons for an insider to sell a stock,but usually only one when buying in big."

cordially trying to bring something to the table Tom

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Tom!

Greetings,

Yeah they took a whipping,and I think more is on the way.
Ive been taking advantage of some good dips lately,I hope to maximize their potential in the future.

Approx. 3 weeks ago PBT tanked to 10.75,I grabbed some at 10.92,its now over 13.Watch this one,as its on Mcdeps list as a buy the last time I looked.BR is selling 25million units of it so many buying opps will be coming up.
Sell range is mid 13s,so watch for a dip into the 10s soon.

PTF is channeling between high 13s and 15,Im looking to get that one again soon.

EENC is on Spikes bull list,and Ill buy any share in the 20s.

I figure if I can at least double the distribution amount,its worth trading,instead of holding.

cordially Tom

On the Canadian side, they took a major whipping. I am moving over to Interactive Brokers, so for the next 4-8 days, I can't do anything. I sold everything I had, took the profits and ran.

I appreciate you posting what you see. Thank you.

As for making a living trading, well, some would depend upon how much you want to make a week, month, year. And everything constantly changes. If you are milking $3k a month out of the market now, as the economy changes you may have to change your plays to get the cream. All cows eventually go dry for awhile. . . .

[spikefader]

Greetings ,
Thanks for taking the time to explain,I assume it must be to an advantage to trade those instead of the QQQQ or an ETF?
Would you mind sharing how much time a day you spend with the markets? I have my laptop at work,and peek from time to time at my interests,would love to do it full time if I could earn a living.
I hope to be able to bring as much help and info as you someday,thanks for all your input.
gratefully Tom

Hey Thomrich, you're welcome. I spend all day watching the market. I closely follow the futures market for scalping opportunities. I use a handful of self-designed scalping systems for ES, NQ and YM. I have two intraday swing setups for the ES that aim for 10+ intraday moves when they present themselves. I'm happy if I get 25 scalp signals a day and one swing signal a day. I also look at stock swings of course, as discussed in this thread, but futes are my passion these days.

Yes, absolutely there is an advantage to trading futures. Most daytraders who experience futures, their volatility, their liquidity and speed of execution, their absence of market-maker games, their absence of a down-tick rule, and probably they biggest element of all, their challenge, rarely go back to daytrading stocks. But futures are a particular kind of beast and may not suit some traders. There have been many who have tried to develop systems based on indicators - looking for a Holy Grail - and many have failed, which brings a few thoughts to mind:

I think until a person truly appreciates the power of support and resistance, of patterns, of just plain and simple price action with volume, and releases their grip on the belief that to be successful one needs an indicator (or group of indicators) one won't be very good at ANY kind of trading, let alone futures. Now I'm not saying indicators do not work; I use them. What I AM saying is that you may have to use those indicators or adapt them relative to support/resistance/price action to spot significant points in time, and trade according to those points in time. To simply take a trade based on stochastics being extreme, or because there is a divergence in the CCI, or because price has reached the Bollinger band, or you've got a signal based on one of the hundred different indicators out there, and to force your opinion on the market that price SHOULD do what you think it should, isn't going to take you to success. Interpreting price action relative to indicators is a far more important thing to consider. If price is ignoring an indicator signal that you're looking at, isn't this telling you something? So does that mean if price ignores an indicator that you should fade the indicator at that time? I'm not saying that either. It may mean that the bias at that point in time is in the direction of fading the indicator, but the action to get to that point may mean that price is going to do something that makes fading the indicator statistically hopeless. But perhaps the right thing to do is to wait until price does something that you're in ambush for so that you can well-time that entry to, in effect, fade the indicator that has failed back there. But remember, where is price action relative to the bigger trend? How will this affect your timing? Enormously, I say. So it's a very complicated thing to anticipate and predict price action. Your system has to be adaptive; it has to be flexible; it has to be intuitive; it has to plan for statistical significance, and it has to be able to admit defeat at some point in time, all the while keeping your win/loss ratio and positive probability of success on the positive, so that your equity curve is going to grow and not shrink. Otherwise, you'll be handing your money over to the bigger fish in the pond who pray on emotion and poor discipline and losing systems.

But getting back to futures, what I love about them is the opportunity (albeit slim opportunity) they provide to the average Joe to start up a little daytrading business with low startup fees, and provides a liquid trading vehicle to work your way to become financially independent...that great capitalist dream most people possess. What other opportunity in capitalist society exists to get your foot in the door to leverage a large equity position with as little as $2000 to open an account and as low as $300 margin per futures contract (some brokers go this low, although most are over $1000 - such as IB). I'm not dismissing the fact that most people who try will fail, and sure, it's financially detrimental for them, but freedom is about choice. The right to choose to attempt to do something seemingly unlikely or even impossible to everyone else, despite the odds of probability or possibility. This type of dream-filled risk-taking has historically been regarded with admiration and inspiration and rightly so. It's the element that leads to great discoveries and great achievements. Without this type of freedom of choice to do the seemingly impossible man wouldn't have landed on the moon, and perhaps America would not even exist. So back to futures again, sorry for the digression , if one has the discipline required, and a great system/s, and an appreciation for what the market really is, one can be profitable and fulfill the great American dream of financial independence.

Now in reality, most people try and fail and sacrifice a significant amount of their net worth to attempt the feat, but just because this is so doesn't reduce the intrinsic value of there being a vehicle to take you to that dream, however misguided or rose-colored that dream may actually be. When the daytrader restrictions were introduced to limit traders with equity less than 25K I felt it was a real blow to American freedom. OK, so it probably is protecting people from blowing their cash on grandiose misguided schemes in the stock market, but it was an un-American solution to a problem that still exists and will still exist while you have things like e-mini futures and casinos. Some people liken trading futures and stocks to gambling, and I'm still pondering that one. I know there are similarities, but are they the same thing? To be a successful gambler you need to manage risk, know when to leave the table, know when the odds are in your favor, know when they are not. Is successful gambling dependant on intelligent or intuitive money managing and systematical reliance on mathematical or statistical edges? I don't know; I'm not a successful gambler. I have gambled in the past, and have always felt that the outcomes were absolutely beyond my own control. Maybe perhaps that is just the perception of an inexperienced and destined-to-be-unsuccessful gambler. Maybe winning gamblers possess the innate and undeniable belief that they can control something in the equation well enough to consistently make money. I know that's how I feel about trading. I feel I can manage myself and my entries and exits well enough to 'milk' a profitable edge from the market. Oops....as I type this, I notice I'm close to stopping out of my first YM position of the day. Sheesh, where's the bull gone? Oh, that's right, I'm neutral at the moment


Good trading to all.

[New-born baby]

Spike, what do you see?

Spike,

Do you see a possible s-h-s developing, with the $58 target?



Yes, I'm bearish! When all you have is a hammer, you just want to smack everything! I think CVH gets whacked here soon. Please correct me, Mr. Neutral!

[This is all said with a smile].

[New-born baby]

Reit

Greetings Spike,

I may be short sighted,but it has come to my attention that the COO of FBR has just purchased 500k in stock at the mid 12 level.

A peek at a 6 mo chart looks like an inverted SHS on the daily about ready to complete.Insider puchases of that size warrant at least a look.Any thoughts?I have no idea what FBR does now,possibly mortgage backed securities?

BTW I post these not to pump,but to bring attention to possible movers.My only current holding is LEXR.

cordially Tom

Isn't FBR a REIT? I have friends who hold this stock for the divys, and they love it. Of course, REIT can get hammered in a rising interest rate environment. But, again, my friends love this stock.

[spikefader]

...cordially trying to bring something to the table Tom

Thanks! Always appreciate it.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Do you see a possible s-h-s developing, with the $58 target?
Yes, I'm bearish! When all you have is a hammer, you just want to smack everything! I think CVH gets whacked here soon. Please correct me, Mr. Neutral!
[This is all said with a smile].

lol yep, that's a SHS alright. The weekly channels set up rangebound from 64 to 70. I think I'd wait for that SHS neckline to break, then price to fall, come back up, test that neckline and enter there anticipating the drop to the target. Patience required

[New-born baby]

Nice Plan

lol yep, that's a SHS alright. The weekly channels set up rangebound from 64 to 70. I think I'd wait for that SHS neckline to break, then price to fall, come back up, test that neckline and enter there anticipating the drop to the target. Patience required

Thank you for the plan!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

http://img100.echo.cx/my.php?image=fbr9ia.png

maybe?

cordially Tom

[Websman]

Wow! That was quite an inspirational speach about the markets and the American dream Spike.

I remember what first turned me on to trading. I saw an ad in a magazine describing the riches that could be made by trading commodities by Ken Roberts. I was young and naive at the time so I ordered the Ken Roberts course. The course was expensive, but I was running the family business, so I paid for it out of my expense account. (Tax right off) Hahaha!

What I received for a very high price was Ken's book called, "The Worlds Most Powerful Money Manual. After reading this book, I thought I was on my way to riches. Fortunately, I was broke and didn't have the money to invest. The results would have probably been a disaster.

Looking back, though, I'm glad that I purchased the Ken Roberts course. Although his book offers false hope for instant success through futures trading, it offered me something else that has been equally as valuable. His book showed me the power of positive thinking.

From that point on, I had a new outlook on life. I learned everything I could about the power of positive thinking. Along the way, I also found what the true meaning of success was.

Success, I learned, was not about how much money I made. It was more about the quality of life that I lived. I found that there was a difference between being rich and being financially independent. There are many "rich" people, who are not happy. I wanted to be financially independent, but happy as well.

I haven't quite reached financial independence yet, but the quest continues. I have found that I am enjoying the whole challenge of achieving my financial goals. I am no longer poor though. I live very comfortably. I am Happy. I must be rich.

Now...time to find my next winning trade!

Webs...

[B.J]

Spike I see four charts that have potential. I don't expect you to look at them all, so I've posted them in order of what I think has the highest potential first.



INNO



AIRT



MXT



VNBC

Thanks in advance. (edit: I'm getting "red x's" for some reason, but the links do work)

[dmk112]

Spike, still bearish on Ford?

[spikefader]

Spike, still bearish on Ford?

Nope. You've got the channel turn up, so take the pivot long or the closing price. $16.01 or $16.17.

[spikefader]

Greetings,

http://img100.echo.cx/my.php?image=fbr9ia.png

maybe?

cordially Tom

Yep, the weekly shows a nice bullish candle last week, with expanding LOWER channel long (channel from the top). There is a distinct possibility this one could gap up soon to leave an island reversal in place. This is a tricky one, and stop placement awkward. Maybe wait for the daily channel long with double bottom intraday entry so you can get the lowest r/r possible on it. The fact that there is the expanding LOWER channel long on the weekly is still a warning that the covering didn't occur at the line. Also, this up could be simply corrective before another impulse down......

[spikefader]

Thank you for the plan!

Sure! Anytime.