Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[New-born baby]

Hov

Hi Spike,

Can I get you to post your view of HOV? I view the HOV chart as bearish. I see near-term support at $53. Do you think HOV can go lower than $53?

Thanks for any comments.

Mike

Go to HOT PICK OF THE DAY for my view. And remember, Spike's view is the more experienced, more studied, and more valuable view.

[ForeverInvesting]

New-born baby,

Thanks for your take on HOV. I actually saw HOV mentioned in TeleChart last week as a short canidate. I took HOV short on Monday at $57.87. I was eyeing $50 to take my profit, I just wanted to get a much more experienced chart readers opinion (I am certainly do not fall within that catorgy, but I am trying to develop my chart reading skills.)

If you look at the Point & Figure chart, the bullish support line is at $51 so HOV may bounce there. The Point & Figure chart has a bearish price objective of $39 so if HOV breaks $51 it may be headed much lower eventually.

By the way, I have been reading this board for a while, and I admire your and Spike's charting skills. Keep up the good work.

Thanks again,
Mike

[New-born baby]

Hov

New-born baby,

Thanks for your take on HOV. I actually saw HOV mentioned in TeleChart last week as a short canidate. I took HOV short on Monday at $57.87. I was eyeing $50 to take my profit, I just wanted to get a much more experienced chart readers opinion (I am certainly do not fall within that catorgy, but I am trying to develop my chart reading skills.)

If you look at the Point & Figure chart, the bullish support line is at $51 so HOV may bounce there. The Point & Figure chart has a bearish price objective of $39 so if HOV breaks $51 it may be headed much lower eventually.

By the way, I have been reading this board for a while, and I admire your and Spike's charting skills. Keep up the good work.

Thanks again,
Mike

Mike,
Nice short! Great job!
Why don't you post some of your activities around here? We could all use the experience.

HOV will probably saw-tooth its way down to $39. You could always jump out at $51 if HOV bounces temporarily, and short into strength there. Spike is very good at that. If you ask, he or I might be able to throw a chart up at the time.

Best to you! And we are looking forward to some posts about your activities.

[ForeverInvesting]

I was following HOV before last week but did not short it before earnings due to the volatility. Hindsight says I should have shorted HOV, but you know how it goes. I always say never regret a missed trade since there always one around the corner.

As for setups, I will try to post some that I come a cross.

Thanks again for you feedback.

Mike

[ForeverInvesting]

Hi Spike,

I agree with New-born that $50 looks like a reasonable target for HOV. Can you post your take on HOV?

Thanks,
Mike

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Is NGS overextended and setting up for a fall? If so would GRP be a better bet in oil/gas machinery? Thanks


billyjoe

[spikefader]

Spike,
Is NGS overextended and setting up for a fall? If so would GRP be a better bet in oil/gas machinery? Thanks
billyjoe

I think NGS has more left in it. What a quarter it's had! It's been booming all the way up, and so that's your trend until it isn't. Fresh channel long on Friday sets up for another wave up. Friday intraday pattern was a 6% plunge followed by an ascending triangle off the intrday low that stepped up nice and orderly to provide the bullish candle. I think the movement is bullish action and buying the pivot tomorrow is a reasonably good play, with a healthy r/r of 7 if you target 32.00 (see below) and limit your stop to 4%.

The count isn't clear to me, but on the weekly I'd guess it's in a huge 5th impulse. On the daily it looks like it's in a small 3 of 5 within a bigger 5th, so it's got the current little 3rd to finish, a small 4 retrace and then the final 5th. Guessing waves could make 32.00ish as the chart stands now. Impulses, as you know, can be very unpredictable so it's tough to estimate with much accuracy, but I'm still very bullish on it until it tags an upper channel or breaks down from a 'c' or forms a bearish pattern of some kind.



GRP is a great play too. It seems to be coming off a 'c' long with a channel turn up that green lighted a long at 38.20 a couple days ago. I can see 43.00ish out of it right now, and it looks like it's in a 5th on the daily, so the r/r isn't as good as taking NGS, but it's still a bullish chart.

[spikefader]

I sold those jan 06 calls for market yesterday and they got filled at 1.90. That is a 18% gain in a day not bad right??? Lesson learned NEVER enter a market order for options. I should have entered a limit order for 2-2.10.

Of course I am kicking myself because Sndk comes out with big news which pushed the price up in after hours and is further driving it today, so I proceeded to "re-buy" into my Jan 06 options with a limit order in for 2.55 which got filled. It is now trading at 3.00 intraday. I need to learn to have some patience, but the only reason I sold in the first place was to repurchase when it formed the handle. I will prolly hold this for a while, but be on the look out for the sell on the news on Sept 27th.

any of you guys have further advice for options strategies?
tjk

Yep, nice gain for 1 day, and bad luck on missing that jump. It's getting very due for a pullback to make the handle. That kind of bullish breakout doesn't always happen, and you can't complain about carving a nice chunk out of it.

On order type for options, sometimes it's very wise to hit the market price. Sometimes you need to. But when you have the opportunity it's much much better to limit price it at a point in time when you can exploit some fear or greed that makes people chase and hit your limit. If ever buy into weakness and sell into strength was true, it's with options. That is a distinct edge. Requires patience, and timing the chart perfectly. Also requires not getting greedy in the face of the intraday patterns. It's an art form to set the right bid and ask limits when you're doing options. Takes a lot of practise to get there.

[Runner]

Spike strange that you bring up GRP. I think this was the perfect play on it. Entry here at close @ 34.53 and stop @ 33.54
Target upper channel.



Channel tag here for 8%

[spikefader]

Spike,
Re-reading many of your older messages, I found a wealth of information. However, there is one thing I am still kind of confused about: Do gap's usually fill or not?
For example, let's look at HOKU, which is running like Ben Johnson on steroids. I see that there are TWO a complete gaps formed.
On September 14, it closed at 6.12 and the following day it opened at 6.82 and the low intraday was 6.42
Yesterday, it closed at 7.60 (with intrday high of 8.04) and opened today at 9.26, with a intraday (so far) high of 10.69 and low of 9.23.
So, how do you usually deal with such things? Do you think that the gap from 8.04 to 9.23 will eventually get filled, or do you think that it really doesn't matter. What about the earlier and smaller gap?
I can give you ten's of cases where they did fill, and ten's of cases where they never filled.
Would love to hear your (or anyone else's) comments on this theory. I realize that HOKU is chart which is still being drawn up as I type, so perhaps you can use it as a real-time example.
Many thanks and good trading!

Glad you found value in pages of the past

Gaps; do they fill or not. I've posted lots about gaps in the past. Short on time now but the quick answer is that the majority of gaps fill. Yet there are plenty out there that don't fill for years, if at all. Volume on the day of the gap has a lot to do with whether they will become runaway gaps that don't fill for a long time, if ever.

On HOKU, that volume is huge so there's the likelihood this will become a runaway for a period of time, where you'll see bullish price action, and then it may fill in 6 months time; or 3 years time, or if there's aweful news, maybe 2 days time. It's very unpredictable, and it's all relative to past and future price action and of course fundamentals and The Street's perception of them, and all the other ingredients to speculation that drive price around. HOKU is a young chart, so if I were long, I'd be very cautious and wouldn't feel safe holding long merely because of a single interpretation that that last gap should be a runaway, because the fact is, it might fail and fill, and fail, and the smaller gap fill because it's low volume. But the fact is, it's a very bullish chart right now. It may be different in a few days if support fails. And it comes back to this; support is only support while it is support. The market drives a stock to take out solid support and tough resistance all the time. The market will turn on a beautiful chart, often with unexpected speed and savageness, and turn it into an ugly one. All we can do is say 'if price does this; I will do that', and play the game according to and within our own parameters.

[spikefader]

Greetings,
Thanks to NBB,and Spike.
Spike I put a bid in on SNAK at 5.50,hoping it falls to support there,with a stop at 5.05,since its not a huge position I want to give it a little wiggle room,since I like the odds of a return to the upper 6s.8% risk for 25% reward,acceptable?
cordially Tom

You're welcome

SNAK; well you almost got the fill. And now, with the chart how it is, I wouldn't want a fill at 5.50. I think if it trades there, the channel turns down and it's no longer a bullish chart. That channel long is expanding by the way, which is caution longs. If that low of 5.57 fails now, you don't want to be long.

Good luck this week!

[spikefader]

On SOSA guys, you've got potential double top there, with a channel short on Friday. The multiday count looks it's had 5 completion up to Friday's high and the 'abc' with 'c' failing, so it sets up short while that's going on.

[Runner]

Spike ya think that LNG will tag the upper channel again?

[Runner]

Might be worth about 5 point nice action here as long as this lower channel is not violated.

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,

Can I get you to post your view of HOV? I view the HOV chart as bearish. I see near-term support at $53. Do you think HOV can go lower than $53?

Thanks for any comments.

Mike

Sure. I'm with you on that bearish view. Here is what I see: