Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

[skiracer]

Spike,
This one is working out nicely. Do you own it?

[spikefader]

No ski, still just an experiement. It might need some tweaks before it's ready for real dollars, although I think it's close to being as good as it can get. I much prefer half the number of candidates, a lot less work tracking.

And guess what! Crop #1 is still open and working out nicely after all this time - with ascending triangle breakout now on the daily and a brand new bullish PSAR after 1 day of bearish one. It came very close to the 61.00 profit protection stopout, but this has a very very real chance to be huge.

I can't wait for the next dump already.

[spikefader]

scalp YM long 10746.

What a start to 2006!!! Great stuff.

[spikefader]

Random thoughts for the day:

Well I'm glad to see GOOG coming back, like there was any doubt harhar. I've managed a good average price for those calls (GOPAI) when they were at 0.90 (average of $1.37 now). They last traded at 1.50 today so I'm slightly in profit and looking for a nice follow through to new highs this week. A glance at the chart makes me feel pretty good about this play. Shows a clear long bias while that channel long holds, and working on a daily channel turn up. Bullish zero line reject with money flow on the daily and on the weekly chart there is a channel turn up going on.

I actually sold all of the large GOOG position in the SPIKE paper fund today so I could load up on ELN at the close because I think that's a better play with its channel turn up at the close. Sold the profitable EFA on the way up today for a quick 2% profit on a large position. Bought a little of AIS cuz the money flow looks so great, and it looks to be in a 3rd up. AMLN looks like it's getting ready to move north too, having tested the triple top. I increased OPLK to 10% today, figuring the daily c long is going to get bought now, and the 5th on the weekly about to produce itself. Citigroup's weekly 'c' long looks like it's getting bought now...maybe those calls I paid $0.60 for will start doing something good this week...

Very very very bullish right now. Bears beware. I'm amazed my POTW short NTY earned +1.6% today that's for sure

[skiracer]

Spike,
I watched it all day Friday and today. I was looking for an entry on ELN and PETS. I bought PETS but I just don't see the strenght in ELN right now. Nice move back up on Friday but today in light of a strong afternoon it just didn't produce in a strong market. Makes me leery. Do me a favor and post your EW count on the daily for me please. I want to see how my count compares to how you see it. Is the c move down just starting now on the daily?

[spikefader]

Sure ski.

Here's my preferred count:






There's absolutely no reason why one couldn't expect that gap to close within 6 months, perhaps as fast as 3 if it gets nuts.

[skiracer]

Thanks Spike. I was seeing it just a little different but I can see how it would be easy for two people to interpret the waves differently. I saw #2 where your #3 is which would move everything up one wave and make the c down just beginning. I've really never used it to much in the past other than what I've read from others but I see that it works and like the added dimension it gives to the chart analysis.

[SiatyM]

Ovti

Hey Spike,

Thanks for all your great analysis. What is your opinion on OVTI? It seems to be the consensus that it is ready to break out. Do you concur?

Thanks!

[DSteckler]

The weekly chart shows that OVTI has stalled at a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline between the weeks ending 12/5/03 and 8/13/04. A weekly close above the 21.35 range should set up a test of the 61.8% retracement level, around 24.25.

Here's a link to the chart:

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=38114&u=dave&a=MyCharts&id=690

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike. I was seeing it just a little different but I can see how it would be easy for two people to interpret the waves differently. I saw #2 where your #3 is which would move everything up one wave and make the c down just beginning. I've really never used it to much in the past other than what I've read from others but I see that it works and like the added dimension it gives to the chart analysis.

Yep, absolutely. It really is an added 'dimension'. Good word And so true. It gives one another layer to add to the equation, to at least consider...and always with the caveat that any count you see may change into something else.

I'm always very prepared to say my count may be wrong, because even when it looks 100% right the market will show you something else and change it all in your face and make one look foolish if you aren't flexible and willing to say change your count where it's needed. And the other thing to remember about counting is you never ever know how long each one is going to be. You can use measured moves and the like, but bottom line is a 3 can last much much longer than what one may think. It can form subwaves within a bigger move, and a 'c' correction may fall way below the 'a' low, or it may never fall below it. So as long as the trader makes his plays with that in mind and makes the risk reward sensible it's an edge that can make a positive difference to the bottom line.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike,

Thanks for all your great analysis. What is your opinion on OVTI? It seems to be the consensus that it is ready to break out. Do you concur?

Thanks!

Hiya SiatyM.

You're welcome, thanks for the feedback.

Well the count sure sets up for a breakout. Money flow and reaction to the big gap up is a little bearish, but a glance at the weekly makes you think 'oooohh, nice 3 about to happen" lol. Bullish bias while the 'c' holds/gap holds. It's coming off a weekly cup with handle too. Yep, clearly bullish this one.

Here's the daily:

[spikefader]

Added to swing long YM 10892. 20 point stop.

[DSteckler]

Spike, money flow (as measured by the Volume Flow Indicator) has been improving since 12/23 and turned bullish today. Weekly money flow has been bullish since early November although it's been weakening the last three weeks.

BTW, the weekly chart is breaking out of a HTF (high tight flag) pattern.

[spikefader]

Hiya Dave.

Welcome to the thread! I suspect you may have missed my welcome in your thread, but not to worry.

Haven't used VFI myself. I really like the concept and will research it some more. The obvious first question is how does one tell if the volume is coming into and not out of the issue? No doubt my research will answer that one. I glanced at the formula but it didn't jump from the page heh

Anyway, I really like CMF and find it helpful. Love those zero line rejects But it's just one thing in the equation. Yep, I'd agree money flow has been good on the weekly for OVTI. The weekly impresses much more than the daily. But frankly I'd not be a buyer at these levels. The best r/r is gone in my book. But I'll be stalking if for sure.

Your thoughts always welcomed.