Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[New-born baby]

Just sniffin'

lol ya.

I looked at the weekly and said 'wow'. lol There are better plays in my opinion, BUT it's possible to do OK if you time it right....but timing has to be perfect. You're the expert with selling calls and I'd look with interest at the play. It's booming on the weekly and the daily, and booming nicely. BUT you could go for a 5th impulse completion on the daily (I think it has one little impulse up left, and currently in a 3). But take a booming stock for what it is; ignoring channels.... and I'm still very bullish on the market right now so I say caution when you do it. You want a good entry. I see those gaps down there on light volume which is supportive of a decent correction in the next few weeks.... Good luck with it!

Haven't done a thing right now. Just sniffin' around, lookin' for some meat.
Sooner or later the momo has to turn back down.

I bought PBR Tuesday for $69.26, and she has rocketed up to $76.34 or so (I missed the close). This thing sports an $.84 divy per quarter, the ex-date being next Tuesday. That January 2007 $75 call is pretty nice, around $9.60.

[Runner]

Spike, you really got the Dow thing figured out. Awesome job with your plays!!

Happy New Year!!!!

[DSteckler]

MCX update

Draw a Fibonacci retracement series between the 11/17 low and the 12/15 high. The pullback to the 12/28 low (tentative end of Wave 2) was a 61.8% retracement of the advance between November and December. Today's move ran back up and closed just above the 38.2% retracement level. A higher close tomorrow or Friday should set the stage for a test of the 23.6% retracement level, around 14.60, and after that a test of the Dec. high. Once that has been cleared, Wave 3 will be in place.

How far it goes is subject to debate but one school of thought holds that the price advance of Wave 1 (about 6.85) should equal the price advance of Wave 3. If Wave 3 began at the 12/28 low at 11.68, that suggests a target objective of around 18.50.

[Runner]

Draw a Fibonacci retracement series between the 11/17 low and the 12/15 high. The pullback to the 12/28 low (tentative end of Wave 2) was a 61.8% retracement of the advance between November and December. Today's move ran back up and closed just above the 38.2% retracement level. A higher close tomorrow or Friday should set the stage for a test of the 23.6% retracement level, around 14.60, and after that a test of the Dec. high. Once that has been cleared, Wave 3 will be in place.

How far it goes is subject to debate but one school of thought holds that the price advance of Wave 1 (about 6.85) should equal the price advance of Wave 3. If Wave 3 began at the 12/28 low at 11.68, that suggests a target objective of around 18.50.

I think MCX may be getting ready to run in a 3rd wave I also thought wave 1 and 5 should be about the same move and wave 3 should be the longest run. I could be wrong in this wave assumption though??

[DSteckler]

Wave 3 normally is the longest of the three impulse waves but at a minimum, it should be as long as Wave 1. It could easily be 1.382 or 1.618 times the length of Wave 1.

[rickflyboy]

Goog

You guys were sure right about google last year. Is it going to $500 or $600 this year? Or has GOOG run out steam?

[spikefader]

Hey Spike,

Great call yesterday on those futures long...

Tell me, I am trying to follow this MCX (as I hold some) closesly. It seems like it is still on the "1" of the new pattern, as there has not been any kind of a pullback. When there is a pullback, where do you think (based on todays close) will the "2" takes us down to before "3" should resume up?

Still learning.... all ears...

hiya mystiky!

Thanks!

MCX, what a cool move huh! I tell ya, those 'c' longs are worth waitin' for.

I think it's safe to say it's in a 3 right now, pending changes haha but seriously it could be in the 3rd of 5 of the 1st for all we know. Said another way, it could be in a fresh 1st that's 3/5ths of the way over. Whatever it is the trick and the hint that I look for is the abc corrective. Spot where they are in a chart and work backwards and forwards from there to get a count that 'looks' right. I'm a simpleton and don't follow the formal rules of EW (hopefully yall will forgive me for the weakness hehe) so what I make up will have a purist EW pick a fight with me.

But whatever MCX is doing right now, it's the right thing; it's actin' right. And it's a very good example of why waiting and being patient and disciplined and looking for good r/r can pay off. It might not ever get to 5 waves cuz there's no guarantee of anything. But look at the zero line money flow reject; a bullish thing if I ever saw one. So the future is so bright I gotta wear shades for MCX. At least until the clouds ruin the fun.

And that leads me to some unprompted thoughts that I'll jot down if only for my own benefit. Whatever happens with a pick, set your plan, modify it daily if you must, and smile no matter what it does. No regrets, just smart planning and disciplined execution. I can read a thousand forum threads and read about millions of great stock 'picks', but just cut to the chase and show me the r/r setup, show me a chart, give me the bottom line and after all the DD in the world, or recklessness to it, then show how well you stuck to the plan, and how well you stalked it, and how patient and clever your entry was. THAT my friend is success, and it's better than any end of year total that stares at you from a black and white page or color LCD monitor. The truth of success is actually hidden in profit totals, cuz even an undisciplined gambling risk reckless knucklehead in a bull market or just on a lucky streak can make money. It is what is NOT shown on a P/L sheet that is more important. Don't get me wrong, profit is the ultimate goal, and why we try so hard. BUT the goal that precedes that money goal is discipline. How many disciplined and controlled trades can you brag about, where in the face of temptation and weakness and emotion you stuck to your plan? How many huh? Most people don't give a second thought to that one. Measure that, post about that, show the totals of that. Then the smart ones will truly know who's destined for true success. And I'm not talking about stops and searching for perfect entries; I'm talking about having a good plan and sticking with it, whether you're a TA fan or a FA fan, or have a HUUUUGe model like MM. There's bunches of ways to make money. But it comes down to a solid system and being disciplined, whether through diversification or holding til it goes bankrupt. And MM is one of the hugest as far as having faith and patience and discipline with his model; and the proof reveals itself in the face of self doubts and/or the skeptics. MM does'nt get the praise he deserves in that regard. Idiots bad mouth him for the losers and laugh at what they don't understand. Just like I'm sure many people laugh at TAers who think and analyse their butts off cuz that's what their strengths are in. Sheesh, how did I get on this preachin'! Runaway train! As "The Mask" movie line goes, "Somebody Stop Meeeeee!" heeh

[Websman]

...As "The Mask" movie line goes, "Somebody Stop Meeeeee!" heeh

Ahhh, Jim Carrey. My neighbor had a speaking role in the Truman Show. Of course, that's a whole different story.

Back to the discussion!

[spikefader]

....just sniffin' around, lookin' for some meat......

lol well whatever you smell, may it smell like roses!

[spikefader]

Spike, you really got the Dow thing figured out. Awesome job with your plays!!

Happy New Year!!!!

lol thanks dude. Happy New Year. May it bring the successes you deserve.

[spikefader]

Draw a Fibonacci retracement series between the 11/17 low and the 12/15 high. The pullback to the 12/28 low (tentative end of Wave 2) was a 61.8% retracement of the advance between November and December. Today's move ran back up and closed just above the 38.2% retracement level. A higher close tomorrow or Friday should set the stage for a test of the 23.6% retracement level, around 14.60, and after that a test of the Dec. high. Once that has been cleared, Wave 3 will be in place.

How far it goes is subject to debate but one school of thought holds that the price advance of Wave 1 (about 6.85) should equal the price advance of Wave 3. If Wave 3 began at the 12/28 low at 11.68, that suggests a target objective of around 18.50.

Aaaah FIBS, ya gotta love the FIBS!!! And wave schools; ya gotta love them, even if ya don't go to 'em! 18.50! beautiful

Seriously though, thanks for that. Logical, practical, and optimistic; what's not to like! heh

[sekto]

hey spike what do you think about TLAB?

Good entry or stalk it some more?

[spikefader]

You guys were sure right about google last year. Is it going to $500 or $600 this year? Or has GOOG run out steam?

Ahhh GOOG, what an amazing stock it is. It's got everything; gaps, raw power, volume, options, and probably killed more hedge funds than any other stock. I was reading the transcripts of the elitetrader chat today, and there's a poster called marketsurfer who is running a hedge fund and short 2/3rds of a postion that is likely 10,000 shares of GOOG and averaged in at 436.50 with one add left. Without questioning his sanity it's clear that he's still not breached sensible risk reward yet, and got as bad as -2.85% on the average. He won't talk about his stops, which is probably sensible considering the volume he is trading, and no-one should criticize him for that. But what I DO question him on is his timing. One look at GOOG and it's a long bias, with impressive things like runaway gaps, booming channel action, fantastic weekly and daily money flow, channel turn ups, and bullish zero line MFI rejects. Add to that a bullish market and the real chance of a strong breakout soon and the bottom line is Mr.MarketSurfer, you need therapy. BUT in his defense he's got a double top potential with GOOG, and what he calls inside sophisticated analysis/information. SHOO, whatever that is! Bottom line is that bubbles can be bubbles for longer than any short can remain liquid. I'm predicting he adds his third position soon and then stops out of the whole position. I've read one smart cookie target 1200 for GOOG within 5 years, and ya know what....while I cannot imagine that now I see it as POSSIBLE. I doubt anyone would have expected 445 in Sept 04, or even Sept 05! But look at it. There it is. It's huge, it's impressive, it's GOOG. And it's a bull market, and the trend is your friend until it ain't. Who knows where GOOG will stop. It's an animal. It's living and breathing, and sucking the life out of the knuckleheads who want to fade its bullishness. I say favor it on the long side until it SHOWS something bearish. Which it is yet to do. By the way, my GOPAI GOOG calls are +65.5% at close with no afterhours weakness in the stock. NBB had it right; "Puts! Puts! We don't need no stinkin' PUTS!" lol Where are my shades! lol

[New-born baby]

Point and You Figure

You guys were sure right about google last year. Is it going to $500 or $600 this year? Or has GOOG run out steam?

The Point n Figure chart, invented by Mr. Dow, says that the GooG price target is currently $608.00. Go figure.

[dmk112]

Dmk you about? This is impressive to watch. Talk about a good time to be readin' the tape. THIS is bullish behavior. Shoot, 11k???? ... maybe tonight. lol

Everytime I go on vacation, we get a rally. LOL. Hopefully I can still get aboard the train tomorrow.