Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175

    On that 5, there's a truncated 5th. Bad for bulls. 1min c long failure there.
    Closed my scalp for +8 and stalkin again. Intraday system weakening...

    Comment

    • spikefader
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 7175

      10851 is the valid short location now.

      Comment

      • spikefader
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 7175

        swing short 10845, 20 point stop.

        Comment

        • dmk112
          Senior Member
          • Nov 2004
          • 1759

          dammit! I step away for 20 mins and it drops! errr
          http://twitter.com/DMK112

          Comment

          • spikefader
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 7175

            And she's droppin like a rock on that long setup failure.
            Late comers will short any strength to the Dow pivot, so there's the logical place to get back on the bus dmk. That green c short workin nice now that it held through those tests of the resistance.

            Comment

            • dmk112
              Senior Member
              • Nov 2004
              • 1759

              I'll set a limit order to 10840 and see what happens. I was in @ 10860! sheesh...
              *upper cut*
              http://twitter.com/DMK112

              Comment

              • dmk112
                Senior Member
                • Nov 2004
                • 1759

                Originally posted by dmk112
                I'll set a limit order to 10840 and see what happens. I was in @ 10860! sheesh...
                *upper cut*
                Scratch that, I missed it, will wait till tomorrow.
                http://twitter.com/DMK112

                Comment

                • spikefader
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 7175

                  Originally posted by dmk112
                  I'll set a limit order to 10840 and see what happens. I was in @ 10860! sheesh...
                  *upper cut*
                  If it makes you feel any better, had I been trading that short I would have covered right when you did. Everything was whispering breakout north to me, until that failure I spotted. And see how quick it dumped when it did fail. Juts like the other day. Bearish bias daily, intraday long pattern that failed, then the dump. Your one mistake was not getting short again! The market is just rubbing your face in it for being disciplined at first, then too slow when it counted haha. Bad luck dude. You'll get one soon.

                  Comment

                  • spikefader
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 7175

                    Originally posted by spikefader
                    swing short 10845, 20 point stop.
                    Gonna tighten the stop on this one. Daily Vector closed solidly bearish and I got the perfect entry for the short. It's within reason that YM could drop to 10750 area to test the bullflag support, which is a nice 100 point profit with a distinct possibility that this major trendline resistance area holds and the weekly flag fails. No certainties, just the right side of the trade.

                    dmk, today will make you want to question your breakeven rule. Don't let it. It happens like that often enough. You practiced great r/r in the face of what the market was 'whispering'. The real lesson you should take away isn't the stop you used, it's why you didn't get back on the bus when the weakness exposed itself. You were away so, there was no error then. Just missed opportunity. Better to miss opportunity than lose money. That's what you should focus on, and not whether you should have left your 10point stop order where it was. Little consolation, I know, but shoot bro, getting in and out of the futes is easy. It's the discipline that's the hard part. You passed the first test with flying colors I think. You just missed the gun for the second.

                    Comment

                    • dmk112
                      Senior Member
                      • Nov 2004
                      • 1759

                      Originally posted by spikefader
                      Gonna tighten the stop on this one. Daily Vector closed solidly bearish and I got the perfect entry for the short. It's within reason that YM could drop to 10750 area to test the bullflag support, which is a nice 100 point profit with a distinct possibility that this major trendline resistance area holds and the weekly flag fails. No certainties, just the right side of the trade.

                      dmk, today will make you want to question your breakeven rule. Don't let it. It happens like that often enough. You practiced great r/r in the face of what the market was 'whispering'. The real lesson you should take away isn't the stop you used, it's why you didn't get back on the bus when the weakness exposed itself. You were away so, there was no error then. Just missed opportunity. Better to miss opportunity than lose money. That's what you should focus on, and not whether you should have left your 10point stop order where it was. Little consolation, I know, but shoot bro, getting in and out of the futes is easy. It's the discipline that's the hard part. You passed the first test with flying colors I think. You just missed the gun for the second.

                      Spike, thanks. I wonder too though, I got in at 10860 and initially set my stop to 10870 and then moved it up to break even after I got some breathing room. If I would of left it in place, which was my original plan, I would have benefited. Don't you think it is better to stick to your original plan?
                      http://twitter.com/DMK112

                      Comment

                      • spikefader
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7175

                        Originally posted by dmk112
                        Don't you think it is better to stick to your original plan?
                        You really want to beat yourself up don't you? LOL

                        Not necessarily. A good trader makes themselves flexible enough to modify plans in the face of what the market tells them.You traded what you saw didn't you? You saw the risk of the breakout. It was real enough; at least to me it was. There was every reason to move your stop to breakeven. Just because price moved in a direction contrary to your risk management, doesn't makeyour risk management logic invalid and erroneous.

                        Seriously, from my humble perspective,it wasn't a swing short until that long setup failed. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

                        Comment

                        • spikefader
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 7175

                          Add to YM short at 10766. 12 point stop.

                          Comment

                          • dmk112
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2004
                            • 1759

                            Spike, nice call.. I was looking for the DOW to bounce today off the bullflag support, it may be failing after all. What are you targeting?
                            http://twitter.com/DMK112

                            Comment

                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              Thanks dude. I'm studying a good area to target now. I'll be tightening the stop for the add soon, since the flag support has potential for a solid bounce, but if it drops on this weakness I'll be happily on board. Daily vector is clearly bearish, as is the intraday signal so I'd be nuts to cover at the moment. If I get taken out, so be it, but I'm going to let this have some rope. There is another short signal right here...



                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Stopped outa that add for -4. I'll look to cover the 1st down near low of day and see how it reacts to the bottom before I consider another short. I gave it a chance to stay weak and it didn't. I'll play this conservatively I think. Can always hop back on if lod fails.

                                Comment

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