Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[DSteckler]

I think she is forming a cup with handle and could explode on you.

That's not a cup and handle formation. It is a potential H&S Top formation.

[mystiky]

more on SMSC

That's not a cup and handle formation. It is a potential H&S Top formation.

Thank you bot hfor the quick reply. I see the STOCHASTICS also pointing up, but can someone please explain that crazy action during the last 3 weeks? It just doesn't seem like it's building any kind of a base.

But of course, if it breaks above 34.10 and CLOSES there, I would be very concerned with my short position. I am not greedy, I would love a cover around 30 -- thats where the 50-day moving avg is. And from the stocks recent history, it has violated that many times!

By the way, the H&S& Top is a bearish setup, right?

[spikefader]

Some of you might remember me of buying SMSC the day of the earnings and just avg. down (aginst all odds) from 30.50 all the way dwon to like 27.80. They reported very well and I sold it all back at 30.50 for a nice gain.

This was about 3 weeks ago. I did not touch the stock again, until today. But today, I started to short it.

Any comments? It looks to me like it can go back down to the 28.50 - 29.50 levels, and I look forward to covering there. To me, the upside run has been on smallish volume and will be met with resistance anywhere from 33 - 34.

Any comments?

THANKS as always!

Yep, I have a silly comment. "You're mad!" hehe. Just kidding.

Seriously though, looks like it's coming off both a weekly channel long and a weekly 'c' long. Money flow has been good the last 6 months, the vol by price is solid all the way down to 15.00 and there are runaway gaps on the daily. I think you're on the wrong side of it and trying to short something with power building up to bite bears. Agree with NB.

There are much better shorts out there imho, like NTY, MVSN, WON, CXR, EDE, BMHC, KBH, WMT.

But good luck with it!

[spikefader]

That's not a cup and handle formation. It is a potential H&S Top formation.

OK, 2 bulls, 2 bears? lol

[spikefader]

...can someone please explain that crazy action during the last 3 weeks? It just doesn't seem like it's building any kind of a base. By the way, the H&S& Top is a bearish setup, right?

Is that crazy action a bizarre volatile type of coiling that precedes a big move??
I think that's a stretch. What's more logical to me is that it needed to test support a couple times. i.e. the gap support there. So yes, there's your building going on. And now it's acting impulsive up; i.e. currently in a 3 up so look for 4 and 5. I think it'll break out but I don't see the r/r setup for it yet and would stalk it. But the bias is clearly long, and yes, there is the potential SHS there on a 6 month chart, with the R shoulder forming now. or arguably already formed with that drop to 27.50 and the move since....so prices over 32.99 shows that funky R shoulder failing, and there's your fuel for an up move (in addition to all the c long and channel long nonsense I've been talking about for it).

The fact that you can't see that is OK cuz one man's trash is another man's Potpourri



Good luck with it!

[Adam]

Thats a cute picture of you spike. Is that the one you use for your online dating? LOL

Hope you can take a joke.

[spikefader]

Thats a cute picture of you spike. Is that the one you use for your online dating? LOL

Hope you can take a joke.

lol oh yeah. If I couldn't laff I'd cry! Jokes welcomed for sure.

[Adam]

Yep, I have a silly comment. "You're mad!" hehe. Just kidding.

Seriously though, looks like it's coming off both a weekly channel long and a weekly 'c' long. Money flow has been good the last 6 months, the vol by price is solid all the way down to 15.00 and there are runaway gaps on the daily. I think you're on the wrong side of it and trying to short something with power building up to bite bears. Agree with NB.

There are much better shorts out there imho, like NTY, MVSN, WON, CXR, EDE, BMHC, KBH, WMT.

But good luck with it!

If your going to short, wouldn't it to be more profitable in put options. I would think you can control more stock and have less risk if the stock takes off for some reason. Does that sound correct to you?

I will see you in the options thread.

[New-born baby]

Dave

That's not a cup and handle formation. It is a potential H&S Top formation.

Dave,
Appreciate the comments. Yes, I see that potential s~h~s, but I discounted it because the stock moved up with such power two of the last three days. Big moves--10% at a time. Furthermore, it has to break the neckline to be valid, and it isn't ready to do that just yet. And yes, my "cup with handle" isn't a pure cup because the bottom is not rounded. I guess we'll have to wait and see which formation really develops. Which brings me to my second point: you are a GREAT addition to the forum, but I hope you have thick skin. We don't always agree around here. (as you just witnessed). Then we have to wish the best to the man with his money on the line, even if we disagree.

As for Mysticky, I agree with Spike. "Look for better plays." Short weakness. This thing you've got ahold of is like a tiger--and you grabbed its tail.

[DSteckler]

<< I hope you have thick skin. >>

LOL! Spend some time on the AOL investment boards and you'll experience new shades of flamage.

[IIC]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
Thats a cute picture of you spike. Is that the one you use for your online dating? LOL

Hope you can take a joke.

lol oh yeah. If I couldn't laff I'd cry! Jokes welcomed for sure.

Geez...if you two want to start your own Private Thread...I'm sure Karel can arrange it...LOL

[Adam]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
Thats a cute picture of you spike. Is that the one you use for your online dating? LOL

Hope you can take a joke.






Geez...if you two want to start your own Private Thread...I'm sure Karel can arrange it...LOL

Your welcome to join us IIC!

[IIC]

Your welcome to join us IIC!

Thanks...but I've got more than I can handle...LOL

[Adam]

IIC

Are you familiar with LKQX? It jumped on double volume for the last three days. My position is up 17%. My impatience is telling me to sell into this strenght. Any opinion is wecome.

Spike any comment

[Runner]

Spike, what are your thoughts on WMT? I was thinking it might be completing a “C” corrective wave off the daily. If current area does not hold is back to 42 area in the cards?