Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Spike, what are your thoughts on WMT? I was thinking it might be completing a “C” corrective wave off the daily. If current area does not hold is back to 42 area in the cards?

Only problem with the abc is they are so large and more impulsive than the impulses up, if they are impulses, which I doubt. I suspect what you see as abc I'm seeing as a fresh 123 off a 'c' short on the weekly.

Optimists will call that an inverted SHS on the weekly, but I suspect it's in some dire straights if that shoulder doesn't form like now. Vol by price shows it's heavy up top and thin down bottom, not good for bulls, nor is the runaway gap down back in late 04. There's reason to think it'll search for double bottom (bearish bollinger band action), and should the DB fail, and subsequently 40.00 fails (which happens to be a 'c' long area from 5 years ago) then it's got some serious potential of impulsing down to 20.00 or worse. Poor money flow for 3 years, approaching bearish zero line reject area, a failed weekly channel long. Nothing much good to say about it really, apart from the SHS potential/double bottom potential which is yet to show itself.

I think NB picked a wonderful short.

[Runner]

Spike awesome write up. I just looked over the monthly and I think I see the 5 up from back in 1985. It is now sitting at the make it or break it point right here. If the bottom line is taken out look out below. This could get interesting

[spikefader]

IIC

Are you familiar with LKQX? It jumped on double volume for the last three days. My position is up 17%. My impatience is telling me to sell into this strenght. Any opinion is wecome.

Spike any comment

Hey Adam. Here's the weekly. Now that I've drawn it I'm now favoring taking profits here and buying the abc correction. BUT my count could be wrong, could reveal later it's only in a 3 of a bigger 5 not shown in the chart yet and that will involve 'booming' or expanding of that regression channel I've drawn.



Autoparts sector; I like these too: ALV KEYS TEN JCI

[New-born baby]

Double Ugly

Only problem with the abc is they are so large and more impulsive than the impulses up, if they are impulses, which I doubt. I suspect what you see as abc I'm seeing as a fresh 123 off a 'c' short on the weekly.

Optimists will call that an inverted SHS on the weekly, but I suspect it's in some dire straights if that shoulder doesn't form like now. Vol by price shows it's heavy up top and thin down bottom, not good for bulls, nor is the runaway gap down back in late 04. There's reason to think it'll search for double bottom (bearish bollinger band action), and should the DB fail, and subsequently 40.00 fails (which happens to be a 'c' long area from 5 years ago) then it's got some serious potential of impulsing down to 20.00 or worse. Poor money flow for 3 years, approaching bearish zero line reject area, a failed weekly channel long. Nothing much good to say about it really, apart from the SHS potential/double bottom potential which is yet to show itself.

I think NB picked a wonderful short.

I don't have the capability on Stockcharts right now; something screwy with my computer, so you can do this yourself. Look at a 6 year monthly chart on Walmart. No doubt about it: awful. I agree with Spike: $20 or worse is in the cards. It may take a year or so to get there, but it is awful. This last runup to $50 in NOV/DEC was nothing but a retest of a lower symmetrical triangle line. And the height of the triangle is HUGE: $30!

[Runner]

Spike, looks like a 5 or close it to me!!

[dmk112]

Speaking of shorts, GM was up pretty big today - you know what that means

[Runner]

I don't have the capability on Stockcharts right now; something screwy with my computer, so you can do this yourself. Look at a 6 year monthly chart on Walmart. No doubt about it: awful. I agree with Spike: $20 or worse is in the cards. It may take a year or so to get there, but it is awful. This last runup to $50 in NOV/DEC was nothing but a retest of a lower symmetrical triangle line. And the height of the triangle is HUGE: $30!

I see what your keying on NB. It could be in trouble if the bulls don’t jump in here like yesterday!!

[IIC]

IIC

Are you familiar with LKQX? It jumped on double volume for the last three days. My position is up 17%. My impatience is telling me to sell into this strenght. Any opinion is wecome.

Spike any comment

Yes...I am very familiar with it...Has shown up on my scans for quite a while...but I never did buy it (although I may have dt'd it...I'd have to check)...But right now I think it will correct...If I owned it I would trim at this point...If I had a small stake...I'd bail...but keep it on watch..

I really like strong stocks that pull back on lower volume...maybe consolidate for a short time and the start to move on increasing vol again...This could???

I like that pattern on 1 min charts to daily charts...I might even like it on weekly charts...but I don't look at too many weekly charts...Best, Doug(IIC)

[Adam]

Thanx for the scoop. Much appreciated.

[IIC]

Thanx for the scoop. Much appreciated.

On a side note...I started trimming more often last year...I highly recommend it.

An example...and these figures are not exact...but they will be close enough to make my point:

I bot FORD 18.30's in late Oct???...It went up nicely but one day it pulled back hard...I sold in 19.40's and it bounced back from high 18's that day...I went back in at 19.32.

I trimmed in 21.90's and I think 24.90's...I believe it went to 27 somewhere in there...but on my last sell I got out low 18's...Overall, a nifty profit...Coulda been better I guess...But I was satisfied overall.

Nothing worse than getting an immediate profit and then watching it go down the drain. Trimming allows me to get more profits on more trades...Maybe I miss out on the BIG one's w/ a full position...But at least I have more overall profitable trades...And although I never calculated it...I think I do better overall because I like the high volatility plays which can turn either way at the least bit of news...Doug(IIC)

[spikefader]

Thnx Runner!

And thanks for that chart; it gives a great perspective of the support it sits near and the apparant significance of it.

[spikefader]

Creme of the Crop #2 (Merry Christmas Dump) What a dump it was! It's outperforming Crop #1 by a couple percent on the average with stocks that look like they could all stay bullish for a while This is good, diversification while building profits!



You can see MDR has done a fine job, taking 4 positions green for a total of 41.48% over 4 positions, and WDC 9.64% over 2 positions. The others still doing quite well, with the laggard being PKD with only 2.2% in 1 position.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++

Creme of the Crop #1 Update:
Superstock #1, MCO: I don't give enough raps to this stock. Look at it over 3 months compared to the DOW, and look at it since Nov 14, the start of Creme of the Crop. That performance while the market was mostly sideways is pretty cool considering this is a pure system play. The system filtered the mess out, cut the dogs, leveraged the strength, and here we are, almost 8 weeks later, and MCO is still leveraging that strength, with a very real potential to keep this PSAR trend running for a nice long 5th wave up on the weekly.

[Lyehopper]

Go to sleep Spike! lol

You still up dude?.... Man I've been puttin in some long days lately, looks like you have too..... No pain no gain. Right DUDE!!!!

[Runner]

Thanx for the scoop. Much appreciated.

Adam, here is an approach worth looking into. Trail your stock with a stop. Since we do not know with certainty what will happen you could switch to the intraday chart and trail your stops off that chart. If it pops up and runs sideways place stop under the consolidation zone. If it pops up again repeat your stop. This way you’re still in the position and your getting more aggressive on protecting those gains. Who knows it might go up another point or two.

Just a thought!!

[skiracer]

Runner's post makes sense. Alot of other guys would have taken some off the table by now. You're in around $32 range so you're probably up $6.50 or so.
Why not take half off and place that trailing stop up close to protect those gains because the weekly is showing a channel short signal. Nice gains to date so protect them at least if you don't take some off the table.