Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[DSteckler]

<< What an ugly ugly day. >>

Not for the shorts.

[Runner]

Sure did pop lol Amazing in the face of blood in the streets. Maybe a sign that it's in surgery for a face lift hehe

Thanks for checking FRD out Spike. Have ya ever noticed when the market tanks that the stocks that suck seem to bounce. I’ve never been able to figure out why

[dmk112]

Spike, just checkin and looks like you caught most of that move yesterday, 213 points! Holy crap. I should just quit my job lol.

[spikefader]

Spike, just checkin and looks like you caught most of that move yesterday..

Yep, another system success.
I caught +204 of the move from Thursday eod (325 point drop) is pretty good.

[New-born baby]

What do you think?

Spike,
I have a friend pumping HARB. The reason: this 3% divy payer stands to profit from the rebuilding of Florida. I thought I'd call upon the expert to tell me what he sees here. I'd appreciate it

And Dave, Robb, et al: throw down your comments, too. I'd like to learn something

Here's UGLY:

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/872/chart19ra.gif

[DSteckler]

<< I have a friend pumping HARB. The reason: this 3% divy payer stands to profit from the rebuilding of Florida. >>

Why just HARB? That rationale could apply to any bank down in FL.

That notwithstanding, I see where HARB pulled back to its 50-week MA. That's happened four times since 2001. Each time HARB traded a little below the MA then bottomed and made a higher high. Could be an opportunity coming up soon here.

[New-born baby]

Why just HARB? That rationale could apply to any bank down in FL.

Sure it could. But this bank is the strongest bank in the entire region. It not only has money to loan, but it is conservative in making those loans.

I do think this one bears watching. Currently sitting dead on support (daily chart). If that support holds Monday, then it might be a good trade.

[spikefader]

Spike,
I have a friend pumping HARB. The reason: this 3% divy payer stands to profit from the rebuilding of Florida. I thought I'd call upon the expert to tell me what he sees here. I'd appreciate it

And Dave, Robb, et al: throw down your comments, too. I'd like to learn something

Here's UGLY:
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/872/chart19ra.gif

Hiya New-born! Gee, it's great to see ya! You are missed when yer not around. Pray yer havin' a blessed New Year.

HARB weekly and daily fer your consideration. It is looking very toppy to me.

The weekly chart is ominous, pointing to 30.00 support.
The daily shows an approaching setup with a daily green channel long - looks like 'last-stand' support considering all things, and the r/r just won't be there to make the setup worth taking. In my book I'd pass on that play and look for the weekly channel. If/when that daily setup does fail.....I'd expect a fast drop to that weekly support areas of 33.00, then 30.00, then perhaps as low as 25.00 support, where there appears very solid support, and that area would be well worth the 6-12 weeks wait.

Oh, and I just noticed a high volume gap down in July 05 from 39.21, which proved to be the failure area recently. Yep, I think it's stalk time for this one.

[New-born baby]

Thanks, SPike,

Spike,
Nothing like a good cold shot of sanity from the Spikefader! I thank you and appreciate the chartwork!

[New-born baby]

Gm

Spike,
If you get bored with nothing to do (LOL), would you care to offer your opinion of GMs chances for a rebound here?

[DSteckler]

<< But this bank is the strongest bank in the entire region. >>

In what way? Loan reserves? Asset base? What metrics are you using to define "strong?"

[New-born baby]

Pump

<< But this bank is the strongest bank in the entire region. >>

In what way? Loan reserves? Asset base? What metrics are you using to define "strong?"

My friend just said that HARB is in the best position to profit from the recovery because it is best positioned to via loan reserves with a substantial asset base.

[spikefader]

Spike,
If you get bored with nothing to do (LOL), would you care to offer your opinion of GMs chances for a rebound here?

Sure thing dude!

Hey, did you know that there is an unfilled gap for GM at 7.40? Well there is! Back from 12/31/1974! lol And it wasn't even a high volume gap up.

I think that gap is going to fill. Ugggh!

Some observations prior to drawing the charts up:
* 7-day 'c' short from 20.50 on Thursday.
*Runaway gap support failure at 27.41 from May 05)
*Exhaustion gap (high vol gap up that was sold immediately) from 10/17/05
*a couple of gap downs in the weeks following
* very bearish band action in November

The sellin' ain't over yet in my humble opinion. That gap surely will fill, and LOOK out below if that 6.92 price support doesn't hold. If that breaks, I would be expecting it to go to zero.

I'll draw a chart up now.

[spikefader]

GM charts:

It ain't lookin' rosey for GM dudes.

[DSteckler]

<< *Runaway gap support failure at 27.41 from May 05)
*Exhaustion gap (high vol gap up that was sold immediately) from 10/17/05 >>

Those are breakaway gaps, not runaway or exhaustion gaps.

Breakaway gaps are singular in nature, i.e., one gap only. Runaway gaps (also called continuation gaps) are either clustered, e.g., several consecutive days which gap open each day or every other day, or a gap between days 1 and 2 and then between days 2 and 3.

An exhaustion gap comes comes at the end of a move and always in the direction of the preceding move. The 10/17 gap open higher was opposite the direction of the 7/19 - 10/14 move, which was lower.

The 10/17 - 10/26 move (gap on both ends) is a fairly rare pattern called an island cluster reversal. It's an island pattern formed by several bars and a stronger reversal signal than an island reversal, which is a single bar. Here's a good description:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/island_reversal.htm