Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

<< *Runaway gap support failure at 27.41 from May 05)
*Exhaustion gap (high vol gap up that was sold immediately) from 10/17/05 >>

Those are breakaway gaps, not runaway or exhaustion gaps.

Breakaway gaps are singular in nature, i.e., one gap only. Runaway gaps (also called continuation gaps) are either clustered, e.g., several consecutive days which gap open each day or every other day, or a gap between days 1 and 2 and then between days 2 and 3.

An exhaustion gap comes comes at the end of a move and always in the direction of the preceding move. The 10/17 gap open higher was opposite the direction of the 7/19 - 10/14 move, which was lower.

The 10/17 - 10/26 move (gap on both ends) is a fairly rare pattern called an island cluster reversal. It's an island pattern formed by several bars and a stronger reversal signal than an island reversal, which is a single bar. Here's a good description:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...d_reversal.htm

I'd have to disagree on all points you raise Stickler.

On the runaway distinction, I refer you to

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/GapsandGapAnalysis.html

which writes that breakaway gap occurs breaking out of their trading range or congestion area. There was no range or congenstion in the May gap up. But there was increased interest in the stock (news based), thus it is by definition a runaway gap (see same referenced webpage).

Regarding your assertion re the island cluster reversal, I refer you to your own referenced site

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/gaps.htm#Island+Clusters

where they make it clear that must be a gap to be an island. In GM's case, there is no full gap since it was filled prior to the gap down, i.e. the gap was from 27.49 on 10/14/05 and it filled 3 days later when price traded down to 27.37. So it cannot be an island.
What actually occurred was an exhaustion gap up that was immediately sold. Yes, exhaustions usually occur at the end of a trend, but I'd assert that the move was clearly exhaustive in nature. The "double bottom" move came from the 25.01 low, there was a gap up that exhausted buyers. The interest simply wasn't there and that move exhausted itself. Yes, it wasn't after a long bullish trend, merely a short bullish move, but it still counts in my book to be called that, especially considering your "fairly rare pattern" of an island doesn't exist.

Thanks for the chance to ponder gaps once more. They are truly fascinating.

[Lyehopper]

<< *Runaway gap support failure at 27.41 from May 05)
*Exhaustion gap (high vol gap up that was sold immediately) from 10/17/05 >>

Those are breakaway gaps, not runaway or exhaustion gaps.

Breakaway gaps are singular in nature, i.e., one gap only. Runaway gaps (also called continuation gaps) are either clustered, e.g., several consecutive days which gap open each day or every other day, or a gap between days 1 and 2 and then between days 2 and 3.

An exhaustion gap comes comes at the end of a move and always in the direction of the preceding move. The 10/17 gap open higher was opposite the direction of the 7/19 - 10/14 move, which was lower.

The 10/17 - 10/26 move (gap on both ends) is a fairly rare pattern called an island cluster reversal. It's an island pattern formed by several bars and a stronger reversal signal than an island reversal, which is a single bar. Here's a good description:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...d_reversal.htm

GREAT!!!!.... Then I'll enter you (long) GM in the POTW next week Steckler. Your pick last week came in 22nd out of 24 players.... You really seem to know your crap DUDE!!!!

[sekto]

Im insulted Webs, I challenge u to a duel !
jk ilu web.. ur my hero =]

But on a serious note all u have to do is pull a Sekto and stay in CASH allweek and win by default when Speckler beats himself with a losing pick. =P

[spikefader]

New-born,

Here's GM's 20-day chart showing that 'c' short I referenced. Bulls have a chance should 'c' short fail, but the in both this hourly and the daily is showing an 8-day bear flag, low and tight price the last 2. Bulls gotta be worried at this point.



And for anyone looking for a good short, this is good r/r imho. Short current prices of 20.05 with 2.5% stop above 'c', to target gap fill of 7.40. That's 63% profit and an exquisit r/r of over 25. Shoo, I may even short it in POTW this week hehe

[DSteckler]

<< HARB is in the best position to profit from the recovery because it is best positioned to via loan reserves with a substantial asset base. >>

Good to know that, NBB. Thanks for the info!

[DSteckler]

<< There was no range or congenstion in the May gap up. >>

Sure there was. GM traded in a narrow range from 4/22 to 5/3. That makes the breakout on 5/4 a breakaway gap.

<< the gap was from 27.49 on 10/14/05 and it filled 3 days later when price traded down to 27.37. So it cannot be an island. >>

You're right on this one. I was eyeballing the chart and didn't see that the 10/19 low was lower than the 10/14 high. Thanks for the checking the prices on that.

BTW, are you 6 years old? Are you incapable of diasgreeing with anyone without resorting to name calling, like a little child?

[DSteckler]

<< Then I'll enter you (long) GM in the POTW next week Steckler >>

LOL! With friends like you, who needs enemies? <BG>

[Lyehopper]

Steckler.... This ain't AOL.

LOL! With friends like you, who needs enemies?

I ain't laughin.... What's your goal over here on Spike's thread Steckler? It seems you have some sort or personal agenda.... Why do you constantly "correct" him and attempt to belittle his efforts? This is Spikefader's thread.... It's his "house" so-to-speak. If you came to my house and started a fight with me you certainly wouldn't be welcomed back. AND if you returned to my property uninvited to start up more crap you might just wind up in a hollow somewhere.... Does that make sence to you? Do you even care? Spike has been more than generous with you by replying to your posts. It's clear to me that he's waisting his time to even reply.

You were welcomed to this forum with opened arms. Show some respect for the established members here why-don't-cha? This ain't AOL or Yahoo.

[mrmarket]

Remember some of us enjoy the ribbing, others aren't as interested in it all. Let's know our members a little before we decide who we want to fence with.

Think of it as a fraternity party....you'll pour beer on the head of a friend you know, but you might wait a little while before you do the same to a stranger.

(you can all pour beer on me, as long as you buy me one first).

[New-born baby]

Gm

Spike,
I was unaware that GM had a gap down to $7.14 from 1974. WOW. My charting subscription doesn't go that far back Pretty ugly chart. I was hoping for better things, but hope doesn't buy much in this market. "Keeping your fingers crossed is not a good indicator."

[mrmarket]

If the temperature gets too hot in the oven for any of you guys, I will remind of you of Karel's wisdom:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=989

[spikefader]

BTW, are you 6 years old? Are you incapable of diasgreeing with anyone without resorting to name calling, like a little child?

lol Hey Lye! You said a while back it's hard to get this guy's feathers ruffled. I think I've stumbled on it. He doesn't like Stickler as a nicknames. hehe.

Stickler (soon to be Stinky Stickler if you're not careful hehe) if you'd have bothered lurking in this place for a while, or perhaps reading some of the threads to get 'aquainted' with not only the social norms of this forum environment but the 'personalities' of the regular characters who love coming here to share ideas and encourage each other, you'd quickly have realized the answer to your question of me. You'd have also realized how unique and friendly this place is, certainly not like any board you've been on before. Also, you'd have learned some of the etiquette that we practise here. But unfortunately, it seems you didn't lurk and didn't read and have no clue about me, or the way I interact here, and what I might have to 'add' to the harmony of the place, or the profitiability of anything I have to add.

And instead, you've come here and stepped on a few toes and scuffed the shoeshine of some seniors with your rude manner, and your little pithy critical comments here and there. Personally, I greeted you warmly and encouragingly. Not only did you fail to reply to my welcome, but you've since failed to reply to my other comments, charts, and ideas I've posted in your thread. That's fine, perhaps you missed them, perhaps you're too busy or stressed with your trading to worry about my thoughts. That's fine, I "wrote all that off" as a courtesy to you. But it's certainly relevant for me to bring it up when you start getting troll-like and disruptive and critical of senior members.

An example of your troll-like behavior is what you did over in the 'c' long thread. I openly encouraged thoughts and ideas over in that thread, took a vote if anyone was interested and the vote stands at 18 yes and 1 no for a thread like that being setup. Other people seemed to know what a 'c' long as I refered to it was, clearly others knew how I applied EW to the equation. Even you knew from previous discussion that I was applying simplified counting and breaking EW rules. Yet despite that, you go over there, crap in it, offend the author and scurry off without an apology or an attempt to smooth the shoeshine you clearly scuffed. And now you come into my home and crap in it with erroneous TA and pithy unfriendly comments again, with no attempt to bond or be nice. I'd encourage you to either change your ways and try to get along, and be positive, or please refrain from addressing or quoting me. Put me on ignore if you have to!

Listen, you are clearly intelligent, and certainly with MUCH to add to the forum. You have much trading wisdom and for that reason you are an asset to the place, and people can learn from you, including ME. But as a person, I think your social skills suck bilge water, and you're a liability lol. I think we all must pay some dues when we enter a new forum. You are a newbie and should respectfully act like one until you earn the respect of the locals. Maybe then you earned the right to be critical of the seniors. I came here and paid my dues, and am VERY PROUD to 'know' the senior members here, the regular posters, the occasional posters, the rare posters and offer every respect to any newbie who comes here. Even in the face of your disrespect of me I've attempted to remain calm and type with inflammatory remarks. Perhaps my using a nickname to you is inflammatory. But sometimes we earn the nicknames we get. I think you've earned yours. Let's cut to the chase; you're a stickler for rules, at least the EW rules I'm breakin'. You're clearly threatened by the simplicity that I apply, even though you posted Maudlin's rule #11 of simplicity.

I would ask you to please quit the digging and correcting and focus on your own stuff. You don't have to pick up teaching responsibilities on everyone's thread. You wanna be helpful? Wait for people to come to you for help. In the meantime, look for ways to post good stuff, friendly stuff. Build your reputation and repair the damage you've done. Otherwise you're at risk of destroying the magic here at MM. Tolerance, respect, and love dude. Three things to live by before you click submit.

[New-born baby]

My 2 cents

I know I should stay out of this; somehow, I can't. But I'll keep it short.

1. Dave, you are a very intelligent guy, and I'd hope you'll stick around and teach me a lot of things about the market. Please post all you like on Hot Pick of the Day. You've got a lot to give to this forum, and I, for one, want all that you have to give!

2. All of us: let's be careful not to give offense, and let's be careful to never take offense.

3. I hope no one puts anyone else on "ignore." Sure, obnoxious posters might earn it elsewhere. But here at MM Forum, I would hope that none of us are obnoxious. MM Forum is has always been 'a happy place.'

4. And now, let's just forgive and forget. Let's go on like nothing ever happened.

Best wishes to everyone on MMishuge!

[New-born baby]

Gm

Spike,
I find it hard to believe, but I think you are so correct on GM. I had GM long with calls to expire Friday. Those $20 calls did expire, and, ominously, the market maker did not call away the stock although GM finished above $20! I got to keep the stock and the premium. That tells me that the Market maker does not think that GM will rise this week. Never had that happen before. Always, if the stock finished just a penny or two over the strike, the MM took the stock away. "Lookout below."

My plan? Sell $5 JAN 07 naked calls.

[billyjoe]

Geez, I didn't think it was possible to rile Spike. I've asked him enough stupid questions and was always treated courteously. Without the use of any graphs, I've come up with the following simple analysis of GM and to a lesser extent Ford's problems vs. Toyota and Honda. This came to me while watching reports from the auto show in Detroit. This is offered free to the domestic auto manufacturers. I'll wave my customary 6 figure consulting fee.

FORD/GM--------------------------------------TOYOTA/HONDA

concept cars to be released before 2010-----cranking out hybrids today

putting lots of time, energy and $$$ into-----Factories going full bore, can't
restructuring and gearing up ----- ------ keep up with demand for
-------------------------------------------several models
figuring out how to get rid of obligations--------no such problems
to retirees--wants govt. bailout

very dependant on dwindling # of--------------very little dependence on
employees to purchase products---------------employee purchases

bad reputation--flawed vehicles---------------they run until you tire of them

schedule meetings with various levels---------- continue to manufacture and
of management to iron out problems----------- innovate new products

billyjoe