Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

of the Crop#4 4.1% for the week; S&P +1.8%, Naz 1.3%, and Dow 2%. Who cares?

[TFred]

I just reflected back over past Creme systems and got some interesting numbers to show. The Creme series produces cumulative total of +23.2% (+5.8% average) versus a mere +2% for the $NDX Naz! lol

So in effect, MM's model (with a little yours-truly filtering) discovers gems that outperform the broader market by a very impressive margin!

Here's the scoop on the original ports if left open, as of today's close.

Crop #1: +10.8%
Crop #2: +14.6%
Crop #3: -5.5%
Crop #4: +3.3%
________________
Total +23.2 cumulative
+5.8% average.

In the same time frame:
NDX +2%
DOW +4%
SPX +4.5%

Is Creme any good? I think it's a no-brainer myself. The numbers only get better if you keep Crop #3 limited to -4% system stop out I posted (6.1% average per system, and total of 24.3% cumulative).

Original Creme of the Crop post here: http://tinyurl.com/cv2ms
from 11-12-05

Nice performance indeed,

Figures Id start with the crop that got stopped out.Seems the odds favor trying again.Even Vegas gives one up every now and then.

Glad to see you make a buck on PTF,as a side thought,would you consider a look at PBT and HGT?Both cut distribution levels today and I like PBT for a short to the 14s?

cordially Tom

[mystiky]

Nssc

Hi Spike,

Any comments on the chart of NSSC?

Looks like breaking out on volume. Got in earlier today myself. How does profit taking at $17 (short-term) sound to you?

Any thoughts?

thanks, as always!

[spikefader]

Thnx fer the headsup on all those picks you bring to the table, Tom! I'll do some charts for PBT and HGT sometime this weekend. Inital look at the weeklies bring an interesting observation to PBT....look at a weekly chart back from Oct 04 to May 05. That pattern is arguably similar to what's setting up now for it. Back then ya had ascending triangle that popped out breakout then failed by 30% downside. From June 05 to today you've got that same pattern; failed ascending triangle and a return to test the ascending line.... If it plays out the same, within the next 2 weeks there will be a 30% drop to 11.75.... Jim, if you're reading this it may interest you dude. You're a Déjà Vu Connaisseur hehe Actually, Jim, there's a good name for a thread or Screen name! hehe

Anyway Tom, that weekly candle is bullish but even so I'd be patiently stalking intraday every day next week to look for that perfect pattern to confirm the entry short. Maybe resistance high on the daily?? I know it's a channel long yesterday....but I'd hold off for a spike up to 16.80. That's bband resistance on the daily too..... But having said all that, there is a difference between those long-term patterns I've mentioned; and that's volume. There's a lot more volume supporting the current setup and there's great support at 15.00. Let's say it pops to the high resistance, fails, you've got double top and failed ascending on the weekly....and if it fails at 15.00 then it's almost a shoe-in to fall to 10.00, which will be 40% profit target. But you're probably just lookin' fer 15% or so....but thought anyway if you're lookin fer swing short on sumfin.

ENT (old EENC) prolly be a good short on a pop to 19.30 resistance. Target for that would be 14.00, which is 26%.

[spikefader]

POTW thoughts fer anyone interested.

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,

Any comments on the chart of NSSC?

Looks like breaking out on volume. Got in earlier today myself. How does profit taking at $17 (short-term) sound to you?

Any thoughts?

thanks, as always!

hey mystiky.
NSSC another fine display of bullishness. Booming major and minor weekly channels, very bullish band action. Clear bullish bias fer that one. Looks to be in 5 of 5 within a bigger 3 of 5. I really think it'll profit-take first thing Tuesday. If you're long already you might wanna just hold it and wait for the abc c failure to confirm and get out, OR just weather the 4 down and look for the 5th, which 17.50 is probably a measured move (nice estimation on your part on 17.00 by the way hehe). If you're lookin' for long entry, look for the abc 'c' long entry and keep a tight stop at 15.00 or 14.65 whichever sits best at entry (assuming I'm even right hehe). If you're lookin' short, then short 15.87 with 1/2% stop at 16.95 or wait for the 'c' failure. Good luck!

[scifos]

Hey spike, Does BBBY qualify as a dead cat bounce? and how does one trade a dead cat bounce? (if at all)

[RL]

Spike how long do you run the creme of the crop before starting a new one, think I will buy the top 5 Tue. morning.

[DSteckler]

<< If you're lookin' short, then short 15.87 with 1/2% stop at 16.95 >>

That's a 6.8% stop. (16.95 - 15.87)/15.87 = 6.8%. A 1/2% stop would be 8 cents.

[spikefader]

<< If you're lookin' short, then short 15.87 with 1/2% stop at 16.95 >>

That's a 6.8% stop. (16.95 - 15.87)/15.87 = 6.8%. A 1/2% stop would be 8 cents.

Fat fingers. Yes, meant to type 15.95, an 8 cent stop. And the logic is look for a tweezer top, i.e. only a few pennies over last high, and 8 pennies is what I'd risk. Tiny risk for great reward if it actually works.

[spikefader]

Hey spike, Does BBBY qualify as a dead cat bounce? and how does one trade a dead cat bounce? (if at all)

I view a dead cat bounce to be if a stock takes a very large hit, reaches the exhaustive sell-off crashendo and then bounces in a sharp fashion such that it's actually worth trading cuz the percentage in the bouce can be very juicy. But timing is crucial of course. Catching falling knives can be tricky. Jiesen has proven he's very good at it.....so make sure you seek his counsel hehe Personally, you want to look for long-term price support areas to do it. You can also attempt to locate 5th completions that turn into abc's with the c resistance failing.

I don't think BBBY qualifies.

[spikefader]

Spike how long do you run the creme of the crop before starting a new one, think I will buy the top 5 Tue. morning.

I do a fresh Crop with every new MM data dump. So the more targets he hits, the more Crops there are going to be.

As for how long Crops last, remember that Crop is a work in progress and I have recently made a significant change to the method. Initially, I designed Creme of the Crop to eliminate the weak ones and divert to leverage the stronger ones. Both Crop 1 and Crop 2 were traded that way and we ended up with SuperStocks for each one (MDR and USG). Crop 1 closed out for +4.1% and Crop 2 closed out for +7.43%. Reasons for closure were bearish PSAR trends.

It was at that point in time that I reviewed the data and realized the doing the 'leveraging' stuff was actually hindering the performance of the original port if left alone with wide stops. So it was for that very reason that I made a big change......for Crop 3 I decided to pick the Creme and leave every one of them open for the duration, to target +15% on the average, and to fully abandon the 'leveraging' practise and enjoy the protection of diversification.

So there's the history. To answer your question, I'm targeting 15% port average before closing it. I decided to keep the max drawdown rule of the Crop to -4%. You'll recall that Crop 3 took that stopout hit just recently. And Crop 4 is now open and +4% average on its way to 15%......so there's still +11% to go.....and as I look at the Top 5 that you're interested in buying, chart-wise I'm still very bullish on those Top 5. But having said that, I must ask the question as to whether it's widsom buying the strongest 5 of a Crop after they've moved 7.6% on the average of the 5......or whether it's wiser to buy the bottom 5 that are yet to perform??? lol I dunno!? heh I like all of the 10 charts still. But maybe best wisdom of all is waiting for the next Crop... I dunno.

But whatever plan you take, just make sure that the plan is full, and that you've got the downside covered and within limits if they turn South on you. For the system I'm doing a flat -20% risk on individual positions, and a -4% port average max drawdown. That way, I'm not enduring a long and painful death where capital is tied up during a bear run and I watch a Crop turn into a Crud of the Crop. Also, in a bear market, Ernie's dumps will be coming less frequently and thus Creme will run less, further protecting against losses. When the bull is here, I'll be trading Creme more cuz Ernie will be trading more. And this practise will be employing that rule of trading to trade more when it's working, and less when it's not.

Best!

[spikefader]

Speaking of Crop targets.........Crop 2 hits 15% on the average!

[spikefader]

Crop 1 average to date on the original.....only 4% short of a 15% target....

[spikefader]

Follow up to show patterns can work, fail, and modify into other things: Always plan for the downside and keep the r/r good and it's ok when they don't work out.

earlier post back last September: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=4202

RUSHA
before: http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/7...hasept87nx.jpg
after: almost there

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/7478/rushafeb187gh.gif

SNSA
before: http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/1...sasept80ga.jpg
after: breakout failed and turned into a SHS http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/2299/snsafeb186jc.gif

CEDC
before: http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/8...dcsept88cz.jpg
after: stalled and making descending triangle now

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/9889/cedcfeb196er.gif

HRS
before: http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/7246/hrssept86bh.jpg
after: target hit

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/6984/hrsfeb194qk.gif

CWG:
before http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/9923/cwgsept85mf.jpg
failed and turned bearish broadening pattern:
http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/1715/cwgfeb194qy.gif