Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[New-born baby]

Cers/geri

Spike, what's your feeling on cers today?

Cordially,
Geri

Are you a holder? Sell the MAR $10 calls for about $1.10 and get free protection. Hey, if you do, you'd be in great shape if CERS fell to $9.99 by MAR 17th. Really And if it breaks out, you'd be in great shape too.

[gerihearne]

sell the MAR $10

Are you a holder? Sell the MAR $10 calls for about $1.10 and get free protection. Hey, if you do, you'd be in great shape if CERS fell to $9.99 by MAR 17th. Really And if it breaks out, you'd be in great shape too.

Do you know if I can do this on scottrade?
If not, what do you use?
________
medical marijuana card

[New-born baby]

Get Out Now :d

Do you know if I can do this on scottrade?
If not, what do you use?

Geri,
Here's excellent advice:
Get out of Scottrade as fast as you can. They want you to call there office to execute an option. RIDICULOUS! And the fees! Used to be $7 plus $1.25 per contract. I think they went up on the $7 business, but I don't really know since I left them last year. In summary: RIDICULOUS!

Sign up with IB.
Why?
Because you can sell an option for 75 cents. You buy/sell stocks for .01 per share for the first 500, .005 per share for all the next ones. Inexpensive
You are in this business to make money, not buy your broker a new Cadillac And the safety you will add to your account will be wonderful.

Here's how I played CERS:
I wasn't totally convinced that this was the very bottom, but I have been wrong many times before. So I checked the option chain. I discovered I could buy the stock at $10.77, sell the MAR $10 calls for $1.15x100 shares=$115-$.75 commision=$114.25, and still have a 3.3% profit if CERS is above $10 on MAR 17. IF not, I have the stock and $114.25 pocket change, and can sell next month's option for another $115 or so. So you see, you can earn 3.3% per two weeks with relative safety.

Conclusion: get out of Scottrade If you could earn 3.3% every two weeks, how big would your account be in 52 weeks? Let's say you had $50,000 account. 3.3% of $50k=$1650 per two weeks. But remember, this compounds because the second two week period now has $51650 to start with. And 3.3% of that is $1,740.45. And so forth . . . in one year's time you'd have $116,299.51, minus commisions, of course

[skiracer]

NB,

Wouldn't things be great if it was just as simple as you stated an if things never went the opposite way that you want or expect them to. We would all be millionaires many times over. There wouldn't be any poor people and we would all be driving super big SUV's. Count me in on that please.

[TFred]

Greetings,

Hey Spike,concerning my past input on HGT,I mentioned they cut the dist level,and since its been dropping hard.Is there any short left in that one?I think you had it in a triangle,would this harsh break be tradable?

BTW how do you like my platinum grill?I figure I'll put my money where my mouth is.

cordially Tom

[alice4321us]

Here's excellent advice:
Sign up with IB.

I signed up with IB Friday. Lets see how it works out. First cool thing I have noticed there that I can transfer all my account holdings from Ameritrade to them online and free!!

[TFred]

Greetings,

Spike Im definitely looking on the short side of things lately,Along with my POTW pick VC,LEA is at 10 yr lows,and could wind up like DCN,which was at 18 less than a year ago.

Im also looking at PBT,looks like a tumble could occur if it breaks 15.Charts coming soon,Im busy polishng my ''grill''.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Hi spike, just a little experiment with your CERS charts:



(I left out the third image)

I just used the same deep links to ImageShack as you use on your site, wrapped in a [ url= ] pair to the article on your site for the commentary. Even the invisible third image links to that article! Perhaps this is something to play with.

Regards,

Karel

That's really cool Karel, thanks dude. I'll test it out!

[spikefader]

Newborn,

That CERS call advise is interesting stuff. One day I'll get my head around how you think about selling covered calls.

For CERS, here's what I calculate.

The stock dropped 8.3% today. The calls dropped in value to $0.30x0.50. So the money received from the buyer of 10 calls to cover 1000 shares of CERS stock, totals $1100.

The 8% hit on the 1000 CERS shares today was an $870 loss in stock value. And the calls dropped to 0.30x0.50, so effectively you could buy the calls back for say $400 and you've just made $700, most of the loss you experienced in today's hit in the CERS stock. One would only be down $170 instead of $870.

Had CERS rallied hard is what I would like to ponder more......how much the calls would have popped to....and whether holding 1000 shares of the stock would cover the losses experienced in the short call position. Opinions on what those calls would be worth had the stock popped 8.3% today?

See that's the concerning element if selling calls......the significant risk if in the money calls pop hard. I have a suspicion ( a guess ) that had the stock rallied 8.3%, those calls would be worth a premium of well over the value of any gain in stock price one would have made. And if so, then how do you manage that risk. It would be a frustrating thing to see your stock rally well, only to see you experiencing pain on the call options. So NB, exactly how do you deal with that situation?

Thanks for your contributions to the forum dude.

[spikefader]

Oh, and scifos and mystiky, apologies for forgetting to reply to your GOOG and CRY questions. Do you still need an opinion?

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Hey Spike,concerning my past input on HGT,I mentioned they cut the dist level,and since its been dropping hard.Is there any short left in that one?I think you had it in a triangle,would this harsh break be tradable?

BTW how do you like my platinum grill?I figure I'll put my money where my mouth is.

cordially Tom

Wow, you're right HGT is getting smacked.

Yep, it's broken that triangle with some force.......and significant price support... but I would wait to see the closing value of the currently weekly candle. I think if it closes below 30.80, then it's acting really bearish on bollinger bands and is suggestive that it has more downside. Then it would be well worth stalking any stregth to resistance with good r/r setups, looking to target last year's 21.89 gap, or 27% profit from current levels.

Holler when you short and I'll consider it.

Good luck!

[dmk112]

Greetings,

Hey Spike,concerning my past input on HGT,I mentioned they cut the dist level,and since its been dropping hard.Is there any short left in that one?I think you had it in a triangle,would this harsh break be tradable?

BTW how do you like my platinum grill?I figure I'll put my money where my mouth is.

cordially Tom

Tom, cool avatar... are those diamond teeth?

[New-born baby]

Welcome to the Bigs, Alice!

I signed up with IB Friday. Lets see how it works out. First cool thing I have noticed there that I can transfer all my account holdings from Ameritrade to them online and free!!

Alice,
Welcome to the Big Leagues! Now you can trade with the Big Boys--Spike, for instance. Never heard of anybody regretting moving over to IB. Never.

[TFred]

Tom, cool avatar... are those diamond teeth?

Greetings,

Not Diamonds,$1000,00 an ounce platinum.I keep my investment with me always,as long as someone doesn't punch me in the mouth.

cordially Tom

[Rob]

What Is It?

Sign up with IB.
Why?
Because you can sell an option for 75 cents. You buy/sell stocks for .01 per share for the first 500, .005 per share for all the next ones. Inexpensive

Sounds cool. What's "IB"?