Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[dmk112]

Added to YM 10923 10 point stop.

Nice, I'm in with ya @ 10928. Where do we put our stop? b/c if I set one myself I'll probably get stopped out to the point. lol

[spikefader]

Nice, I'm in with ya @ 10928. Where do we put our stop? b/c if I set one myself I'll probably get stopped out to the point. lol

OK, back now. Good job dude! Had to go do some last minute Christmas shopping. I'd put a stop at 10916 if I were you.

[mystiky]

What can I expect from PETS?

I want to wish everyone here a very Happy Holiday season!

Perhaps I found a "present" under my own tree a little early...

Towards the end of the trading day, I bought some shares of PETS (in the 15.40's). The reasoning for it was twofold; 1) it finally broke out above 14.90 and 2) there was talk that if it closed over $15 today, it would go into the IBD 100. The "estimated" place for it to debut was around #20.

Well, it closed today at almost the high of day, and did indeed debut in the IBD100 list at #11 - higher than anticipated.

I see that the float if 16.4 million shares with about 11% of it being sold short as of November 15. The December numbers have not come out just yet, but should come Tuesday morning. Something tells me that with the recent runup, there are probably more like 15% of the float short.

So, Spike -- what should my initial target be for PETS? I know that stocks that debut on the IBD this high usually gain anywhere from 7-12% on the following trading day. But PETS has really broken out. The RSI concerns me a bit, but stochastics look good.

Any suggestions? Should I let it ride, or might be taking profits around $16.50 - $16.75 make sense?

I know you can't predict the future, but it is very hard for me to chart something that just closed at it's all-time high.

Thanks!

[spikefader]

hey mystiky. PETS is going to run bullish for months I predict, as it is impulsing off a handle of cup. Look for a corrective wave down soon on the weekly, followed by a few more impulses up. I think on the daily it is in 3 of 5 up. Just posted in Ski's thread on PETS: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=561
profit taking upper channel is 16.11 and rising on the daily. If I were you, let it run until it shows you reason to exit, and target a 5th completion, upper channel tag, or 'c' long failure. Good luck.

[skiracer]

hey mystiky. PETS is going to run bullish for months I predict, as it is impulsing off a handle of cup. Look for a corrective wave down soon on the weekly, followed by a few more impulses up. I think on the daily it is in 3 of 5 up. Just posted in Ski's thread on PETS: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=561
profit taking upper channel is 16.11 and rising on the daily. If I were you, let it run until it shows you reason to exit, and target a 5th completion, upper channel tag, or 'c' long failure. Good luck.

Mystiky,
I've been in an out of this stock on several occassions since late August/early September and have done very well with it. I agree with everything Spike stated over on my thread and feel it will probably go to $20 if this next report is above or in line with guidance. But there is no guarantee of that. Very similar situation to SMSC in front of eps report. Anyway I think that you got in at the top of a range where I would be looking for a pullback/some type of consolidation, of recent gains. I have been watching it every day recently and was looking for a short setup Monday/Tuesday on any pullback to around $13.50/14 area and then take it long again. These things don't go up like this stock has recently without consolidating those gains in the process. What continues to amaze me is that you first buy the stock then ask for someones take on it. You must already have a plan in mind to have bought the position initially. Did you look at the daily and weekly charts? Their both at the top line of the RAFF channels and could be signalling a short trend reversal on a pullback right now. I would be keeping a real close eye on it Monday morning. I would be surprised if it didn't back up some very soon into that c stage on the weekly.

[mystiky]

more on PETS

Spike / Ski,

Thanks for the comments...

It is probably due to me still being an "begginer student", but the UPDATED chart doesn't have any of the 1,2,3,4,5 - a,b,c markings on it. Perhaps
someone can re-mark it?



Also, what happens if PETS gets above the 16.11 mark, to let say 16.50? Does it now mean that low 16's is the new "short-term" support line?

I know that you guys are making alot of smart and good trades with technicals, but I really think that the "pop" from the IBD debut at #11 could have PETS trading around $16.60 at some point intraday on Tuesday.

My plan right now I think is that once it is above $16, to put a stop at 15.99 and then see how far it will get up.

Happy Holidays!

hey mystiky. PETS is going to run bullish for months I predict, as it is impulsing off a handle of cup. Look for a corrective wave down soon on the weekly, followed by a few more impulses up. I think on the daily it is in 3 of 5 up. Just posted in Ski's thread on PETS: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=561
profit taking upper channel is 16.11 and rising on the daily. If I were you, let it run until it shows you reason to exit, and target a 5th completion, upper channel tag, or 'c' long failure. Good luck.

[mystiky]

Any update for MCX?

Spike,

Just realized how quickly time flies. It's been a week since we looked at MCX. Doesn't it look like its starting to "bottom" around this 12.20 - 12-50 area for another trend up? Volume is dying off, so I guess most of the sellers may be done, while buyers are not yet commital.

Thanks again!


[/QUOTE]

[spikefader]

EFA opp now. At cup support on weekly, channel long area, tweezer intraday. Long 54.95 with stop 54.80ish to target 65.00. That's r/r of 60. Very nice.

In review. Cup support and channel long areas can produce nice results.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Just realized how quickly time flies. It's been a week since we looked at MCX. Doesn't it look like its starting to "bottom" around this 12.20 - 12-50 area for another trend up? Volume is dying off, so I guess most of the sellers may be done, while buyers are not yet commital.

Thanks again!

Yep, just replied to you over in the other thread and yep, it's time. I'm watching now and will post the entry when it comes. It's easy to see the abc correction now; 4 days down (the 'a'), one day up (the 'b'), the stall down (the 'c') and now it's time to hunt the 'c' completion to get the best r/r entry.

EW will reveal itself in it's own way no matter how you expect that it 'should', which is why it's like every other system; ya gotta be disciplined with your exits.

[mystiky]

Other thread on MCX?

Hey Spike,

I am looking for "the other thread", but can't find it...

Anyhow, thanks for the reply!

[QUOTE=spikefader]Yep, just replied to you over in the other thread and yep, it's time. I'm watching now and will post the entry when it comes. It's easy to see the abc correction now; 4 days down (the 'a'), one day up (the 'b'), the stall down (the 'c') and now it's time to hunt the 'c' completion to get the best r/r entry.

[spikefader]

Ah PETS; another good one in review.
previous charts:
This one in august calling for the green 4 correction and the bigger red abc:




Then 2 months later I did the following weekly chart showing the red 'a' had occured (this actually later turned out to be the red 'c' (red ab hidden in the weekly candle formation and it's clear in the daily that it was the abc).


Then the current chart for PETS shows that October low (what turned out to be the red 'c' at 9.30) was bought big time. ANOTHER example of the 'c' long being legendary. Folks, anyone looking for a good single setup for their life of trading, then take the 'c' long entry!! It's great and anyone saying different is not only blind but they're a knucklehead! haha Sure, EW can frustrate and is only ever confirmed after the fact, but despite that it's a wonderful trading method with good r/r management.

....still being an "begginer student", but the UPDATED chart doesn't have any of the 1,2,3,4,5 - a,b,c markings on it. Perhaps
someone can re-mark it?

Give it a shot. You might surprize yourself! I'll add my thoughts to your chart if it needs it.

Also, what happens if PETS gets above the 16.11 mark, to let say 16.50? Does it now mean that low 16's is the new "short-term" support line?

Let's cross that bridge when we get to it and I'll tell ya.

My plan right now I think is that once it is above $16, to put a stop at 15.99 and then see how far it will get up.

Whatever the plan, just make it pretty as far as r/r and make it disciplined Hard to go wrong then.

Happy Holidays!

Backatcha.

[spikefader]

[QUOTE=mystiky]Hey Spike,
I am looking for "the other thread", but can't find it...
Anyhow, thanks for the reply!

Yep, just replied to you over in the other thread and yep, it's time. I'm watching now and will post the entry when it comes. It's easy to see the abc correction now; 4 days down (the 'a'), one day up (the 'b'), the stall down (the 'c') and now it's time to hunt the 'c' completion to get the best r/r entry.

I meant to say in reply to your post in the christmas data dump here

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=34022&postcount=19

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,

look at this



bought yesterday at 26.34,should have waited a day.

cordially Tom

Tom, I see this one worked out nicely! Congrats!

[spikefader]

Creme Of The Crop #2

Creme of the Crop #2:

I've just now got around to looking in detail at MM's Merry Christmas data dump, and have culled them to 10 very impressive momo stocks. Here they are:

CIB
HOLX
MDR
OXPS
PETS
PKD
RGLD
USG
VPI
WDC

Every one of these 10 have daily bullish PSAR, positive daily and weekly money flow, and chart patterns that suggest bullish bias with upside (EW count, patterns etc). I also eliminate ones that I don't like the look of, for example charts with low volume gaps below that show potential vulnerability. So at the end of the screening I have the Creme of the Crop; MM good fundy stocks, with earnings, stocks that have impressive TA bullish bias, no obvious weaknesses in the chart, with money flow coming into bullish trends. Basically this method of culling finds the very finest stocks from a strength/momo perspective as of today.

This week I'll set up an imaginary portfolio with all of them, and cull the losers or weak ones as the week progresses (psar trends change to bearish or at -4% stop loss). And again, as they are culled, their funds will be directed into the strong ones, which will be leveraging the port's success. Hopefully a Superstock will rise to the occasion and impress with a bullish psar for several weeks and take the portfolio to hugeness, just as MCO is currently doing from Creme #1 (currently +11.43% from 1st position and 4.5% on a 20 position average)

Stay tuned for daily updates.

[spikefader]

Hope, Fear and Greed
"The spectator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit".

Jesse Livermore

Sunday evening looks strong.