Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

I know you've done it before, but if you could, would you please post a link to the current version of your screener? I have three versions bookmarked right now, each producing slightly different results.

As well you should. The concepts remain the same, but you should play around with it to see if any particular screen is missing something really compelling. Here is a link to the one I have used most recently. The most interesting variation here is the addition of a minimum gross margin. This was actually triggered by some comments made by lindsayleeds on the PDEX board.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077194&tid=pdex&sid=7077194&mid=971

Whenever I consider adding some new term, first I set it to "display only" and see what it looks like for the stocks currently discovered by the screen. I look to see if I really like anything that would be eliminated by setting a threshold. For example, this screen without the gross margin requirement, turns up JBSS, one of the $$$MR_MARKET$$$ picks, kind of a nutty pick.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L5ZF136Z00F138Z05L3ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L85ZF307Z04L50ZF137Z05L0%2e3ZF134Z04L1%2e3ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF234Z05L10000000000ZF163Z04L30Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bPrice%20high3mo&Tickers=25

[stenzrob]

Re: WOW!!!

Growth slows or price/sales ratio gets over 5. Sell there.
...
Some stocks may continue to go up to higher price/sales ratios. Most do not.

TRCI is becoming a textbook ("Techni-momentu-mental Investing" by stenz) case. I sold when the price/sales ratio got over 5. They reported yesterday a sequential decline in revenue. Growth has slowed and the price/sales ratio just went up in a step function. Down 13% today at this hour. If anyone here is still holding TRCI, run, don't walk, to the nearest exit.

Is it possible that the price will bounce? Sure, maybe.
Is it probable that the stock will go on to new highs and stenz-like returns? I doubt it.

[stenzrob]

CPTV

CPTV making a move.
Triple average volume reversal last Wednesday.
Triple average volume approach to resistance yesterday, where I bought some more, again at 12.50.

Today - above average daily volume before 11 am, approaching 52 week high.

[stenzrob]

XTND

I just bought some XTND for my IRA, for the usual reasons. Paid $6.02. It's possible that it could still have a pullback to the 20 or 50 day moving average, about 15 to 20% down from here. If this happens on lower volume than the recent advance, I will buy more. If this happens on roughly the same volume or more, I'll reconsider. Target is about $10, +66%. We'll see.

CLZR, which is on my screen but I never bought, jumped today on an FDA approval.

[tokyojoeskid]

pdex

everything about pdex looks great and Im thinking of jumping in with you, the only thing that worries me is the avg volume and it not being over 30k
but maybe I can get over that problem and purchase some,

aslo right now im fullyvested and about 5% on margin, Im a student but have a decent portfolio value and was wondering your take on how much you should look into going into margin?
I currently hold 6 postions and really dont want to sell any of them
qvdx in at 4 and 4.6, gmai in at 10.20, sndk in at 17(sold half today), utsi in at 34 (aslo 04 calls at 10.50), nutr in at 13.5, and hbio in at 6.50 and 9.65.
right now in those postions I would most willingly sell gmai.
understandly in a bull market margin is the best way to make a lot more money, but there is also more risk involved

nutr is treating me well its been unstoppable in the past week with a p/e of just 10 it still looks attractive.

[drchrislee]

Stenz's port

I've noticed a lot of people posting regarding stenz's holdings...awhile back I started collecting this data (and made a post on it). So here is a spreadsheet updated with the most recent info on stenz's current port and closed items back to June or so of last year (the current prices on some stocks may be off - I haven't checked them all).

[drchrislee]

try again

Doh, forgot the board won't let me post attachments. Here's a link:

http://www.clpayne.com/stocks2.xls

[stenzrob]

Re: pdex

everything about pdex looks great and Im thinking of jumping in with you, the only thing that worries me is the avg volume and it not being over 30k
but maybe I can get over that problem and purchase some,

aslo right now im fullyvested and about 5% on margin, Im a student but have a decent portfolio value and was wondering your take on how much you should look into going into margin?
I currently hold 6 postions and really dont want to sell any of them
qvdx in at 4 and 4.6, gmai in at 10.20, sndk in at 17(sold half today), utsi in at 34 (aslo 04 calls at 10.50), nutr in at 13.5, and hbio in at 6.50 and 9.65.
right now in those postions I would most willingly sell gmai.
understandly in a bull market margin is the best way to make a lot more money, but there is also more risk involved

nutr is treating me well its been unstoppable in the past week with a p/e of just 10 it still looks attractive.

PDEX volume is low but increasing. Just barely met my screen threshold. I can see why this gives you pause, but I think it will pan out.

I use margin on special occasions, but never for more than a few days.

Not familiar with all of your positions, but of mine, GMAI is the one I'd be tempted to sell, too. The reason: lowest gross margin.

[stenzrob]

Re: try again

Doh, forgot the board won't let me post attachments. Here's a link:

Thanks again, doc. You can be my "Karel".

I sold all the NTST for $15.20 on 1/5/04
I sold all the TRCI for $21.50 on 1/6/04
I sold all the VLGC for $3.85 on 1/12/04
I bought additional PDEX for $2.50 on 1/15/04
I bought CPTV for $12.51 on 1/8, and again for $12.52 on 1/20.

Current holdings: CPTV, PDEX, QVDX, EONC, XTND, API, HBIO, GMAI

[drchrislee]

update

Thanks stenz...I guess I missed some. The spread sheet is updated.

[stenzrob]

Thanks for the spreadsheet, doc.
For my use, I added annualized gain to the current holdings.
One final correction/update -
There's still a piece of TRCI shown as open, I dumped ALL of it.

Posted about it on the TRCI board -

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687572&tid=trci&sid=4687572&mid=1619

[mrmarket]

Thanks for the spreadsheet, doc.
For my use, I added annualized gain to the current holdings.
One final correction/update -
There's still a piece of TRCI shown as open, I dumped ALL of it.

Posted about it on the TRCI board -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bb...2&mid=1619

Don't you know that there is no such thing as ANNUALIZED GAIN?? Do I have to ask Dr. Bruce to give us another lesson on investment arithmetic??

yeeeeeeeshhhh

[stenzrob]

Don't you know that there is no such thing as ANNUALIZED GAIN?? Do I have to ask Dr. Bruce to give us another lesson on investment arithmetic??

yeeeeeeeshhhh

LOL, MM!
It can be calculated, therefore it must exist.
Please, please, do not ask Dr. Bruce.

[Tsevni98]

Stenz what is your largest holding?

I am looking to pick up a stock tommorrow. CPTV does look interesting.

I was just wondering which Position you like the best

[stenzrob]

Re: Stenz what is your largest holding?

I am looking to pick up a stock tommorrow. CPTV does look interesting.

I was just wondering which Position you like the best

My largest holding is QVDX, but I like them all. I try to stay balanced between them. Look at the last few days, for example. Yesterday, EONC and QVDX were up big, and CPTV and PDEX went nowhere. Today, QVDX and EONC retreated a bit and PDEX and CPTV were up. The net result is that the portfolio as a whole just keeps advancing. HBIO also just keeps chugging along. CPTV could be a good choice if you have to pick just one. The chart looks like it could be setting up for a breakout. As usual, my answer is longer and less clear than you were probably hoping for.

My method works on statistics, really. The kinds of stocks I pick will sometimes crash, but as long as over 80% of them do outstandingly well, and I limit the losses, the occasional clunker or bad timing doesn't get in the way of market-trouncing results. Check the spreadsheet that drchrislee posted. You'll see an occasional loser there, and I certainly hadn't intended for there to be any losers. I cannot lay claim to any kind of unbroken streak, unlike our gracious and sagacious host.