Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

My first short was CNXT at 128. As amazingly good of a call it was, I still managed to lose money, when I covered in a panic at 132. (I didn't want to lose money, either!)

Imagine the coulda should woulda I felt when CNXT made it to sub-$1 territory.

[peanuts]

Thanks for the encouraging words, Webs. No, my underperformance is not going to keep me down for long. I am only learning to be better, and in time hope to trounce even your HUGE 32% gain one of these days.

If it seems that I've defocused from the market lately, that's because I have. I believe that now is not the right time to be putting too much cash into the market, and I'm averse to (and uneducated in the art of) shorting, so I'm trying to do more study into the fundamentals of companies I might choose to buy when the time is right (and price is low).

I began to make short plays last year. All but 1 were profitable. I think the fact of my inexperience and constant babysitting of the position helped me to make a profit. I was so scared to be wrong, that the moment that I thought I was too right, I closed the position. I could have made even more on some of those positions.

[jiesen]

Don't give up Jiesen. The Vulcan portfolio had a 32% gain last year, but this year sucked....no big losses, but real gains either.

2007 will be huge though. Stick around you'll see....

Thanks for the encouraging words, Webs. No, my underperformance is not going to keep me down for long. I am only learning to be better, and in time hope to trounce even your HUGE 32% gain one of these days.

If it seems that I've defocused from the market lately, that's because I have. I believe that now is not the right time to be putting too much cash into the market, and I'm averse to (and uneducated in the art of) shorting, so I'm trying to do more study into the fundamentals of companies I might choose to buy when the time is right (and price is low).

[Websman]

Geez...Nothing has traded yet this year and it already sucks???...Not a good sign for the VTP Webs

Always the smart ***... But the Vulcans still like you!

[IIC]

Don't give up Jiesen. The Vulcan portfolio had a 32% gain last year, but this year sucked....no big losses, but real gains either.

2007 will be huge though. Stick around you'll see....

Geez...Nothing has traded yet this year and it already sucks???...Not a good sign for the VTP Webs

[Websman]

Don't give up Jiesen. The Vulcan portfolio had a 32% gain last year, but this year sucked....no big losses, but real gains either.

2007 will be huge though. Stick around you'll see....

[jiesen]

One other thing I should add is that I now have a position in GPRO options which, due to a recent 5% rise in GPRO, would represent about a 4% position for me, if it were fully vested (this will happen over 4 years, though, so it's not necessarily appropriate to include as part of the port yet).

Don't count your chickens until they hatch, right? My LJPC options (from up to $33) will all expire this month worthless, with the exception of a few pennies on the few options I have under $3.

[jiesen]

Another year, another investment report card...

A year later, and it's time to reflect on my portfolio again, to see how it's been working out (or not). This year has not been very spectacular for me. Though I'm not up at all, I'm not down much either (down perhaps 5% overall). Both of my major holdings this year (XING and LJPC) took major hits, and I all but closed out my XING near its low at around $6. I've continued to buy LJPC(D) automatically (as I do bonds and mutual funds) through my retirement plan (guess where I work) so while it's down over 50% for the year, most of what I've bought this year is still worth 15% more than I paid for it (I get a 15% discount to market). While the returns from these two positions alone would be enough to make me cry, these poor returns were nearly balanced out by decent returns from the rest of my portfolio: $$MM stocks returned around 15-20%, mutual funds ranged from about 6-12% and cash/bonds paid 2-4%. So, my portfolio ended up looking much like it did last year, with:

(approximately)
25% cash&bonds
25% mutual funds
25% $$MM stocks
25% other stocks
other stocks include:
15% in LJPC
1-2% each in XING MSFT AMLN GFCI.PK SSRI
<1% in DRUG.OB MSPD AFT

Also, in the 25% $$MM stocks, I still count my overweight positions in PRX BEL OFG and NUS (GGI was sold, as was RRGB) and still own a small position in WSB. I have also picked up small positions in ARLP and ACRG.OB (a $$MM top 5 stock) along the way, and still expect more than 100% out of each of those.

The year flew by, and it seems I've sort of been running in place- at least the results would indicate so. Although last year I ended up down a bit, I did make that back up, and am now about even from where I was two years ago (maybe up 1% or so) in overall investment performance. I owe the upside mostly to a rising market, and the decent interest rate (of about 4%) my cash/bond position is paying. The cash and mutual funds have outperformed my individual stocks as a whole, and as a result of that, and the fact that I've added more to cash than my other investments, my overall portfolio now looks like this:

~30% cash&bonds
~25% mutual funds
~25% $$MM stocks
~20% other stocks
other stocks include:
~15% LJPC, 1-2% each in XING and AMLN. <1% each in DRUG.OB, GFCI.PK, and MSPD.

I'm planning to put maybe 5-10% cash position to work back in stocks and funds, but hopefully at a better valuation than the market offers right now. Also, my position in $$MM stocks now includes quite a few stocks which are no longer held in the actual $$MM port. They amount to about a 5% position in (from biggest to smallest position) PRX, WSB, CBK, ARLP, and BEVFF.PK. So I guess I should include these in the "other" group going forward.

Owning $$MM stocks has benefitted my portfolio, and by $$MM's analysis his stocks have done better than the 15% the S&P has returned. While mine include a few others, I'll assume that at least a basic 20% of my port has returned about 15%. My mutual funds have also returned around the 15% that the market has risen. Here are my two largest fund holdings (each is about 5-6% of my port) in comparison to the index:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MEICX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hwlcx,%5EGSPC

Which leaves the "other stocks" responsible for the overall mediocre performance- mainly my large position in LJPC, which has dropped from about $4 to $3 this year. I wouldn't have minded that as much, though, had I just held onto my 10% XING position through the trying times, but that's over and done with now. Dabbling in the pinks and .OB stocks (GFCI and DRUG.OB) has hurt me this year, and the stellar performance of AMLN in 2005 was not to be found in 2006, so pretty much all of my own picks in my port are in the toilet right now. But I do remain optimistic that in the end I will be vindicated in most, if not all, of these positions.

Another pattern I've noticed from looking back, is that all of the positions I sold this year have turned out to be sold too soon... check this out:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XING&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=ssri,aft

So maybe a little more patience is required for success. Anyway, I'll stick my nose back to the grindstone now... Happy New Year everyone!

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIO&...=l&c=a,wat,bdx

I've always liked Bio-rad, but never bought it. :regrets:

of all the companies making money off of my lab activities, though, I'd have to say Sigma-Aldrich tops the list:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SIAL...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SIAL&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=bio

hmm, now exactly why didn't I ever buy these again??? I sure gave out some good advice a year ago... why didn't I just listen to it?

Sometimes the best ideas are just staring you right in the face, but you push them out of the way so you can focus on the shiny things just out of reach.

Wow! Fisher Scientific was bought in November? Did not know!

TMO is another great Massachussetts company..one thing they sell alot of is bird flu test kits, which may explain the strong chart, in part.

[riverbabe]

one youse guys might like or at least put on your radar is TMO. Its way over done at these levels, but I know alot of you guys here like to chase these high fliers.

Wow! Fisher Scientific was bought in November? Did not know! Now, that's always been a great company! Will definitely keep this one on my radar. I also have a family and professional connection to FS. Agree it's way high now. Will do some DD and watch the chart for a technical entry if the DD is positive. Thank you Tatnic! Riverbabe

[jiesen]

but, but, but... I've got this great little Florida scuba company that you would just love....

you know, I just might swing by it after I'm through checking out some of the hot real estate prospects over there... I hear wetlands are all the rage!

River and Jiesen,
Have either of you ever owned BEC? It's been between 50-60 all year and I see earnings growth is down 51%

-----------billyjoe

one youse guys might like or at least put on your radar is TMO. Its way over done at these levels, but I know alot of you guys here like to chase these high fliers.

[peanuts]

Just sold these shares for 0.067 today. That's a one penny gain (or 17.5%). Not enough to make up for my original position, which is underwater from 0.21, but enough to make me glad I took the extra plunge into GFCI.

Never again, though- that was more than enough pinky excitement for me!

but, but, but... I've got this great little Florida scuba company that you would just love....

[jiesen]

that was stupid after all, but I'm gonna make it all back by buying another 1% today at 0.057 on a 5M share buyback announcement. just you watch. After this I'm swearing off the pinks forever... (yeah right)

Just sold these shares for 0.067 today. That's a one penny gain (or 17.5%). Not enough to make up for my original position, which is underwater from 0.21, but enough to make me glad I took the extra plunge into GFCI.

Never again, though- that was more than enough pinky excitement for me!