Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

Mr Jiesen, since you work in the bio-pharm sector, could you take a look at this week's news re: HTI (another San Diego-based company) and give us your opinion.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061205/nytu166.html?.v=69

My opinion: FANTASTIC!

This is a great deal for HTI. They're getting between 20M and 100M from Roche to develop their delivery technology (and possibly a whole lot more, if it actually works), as well as a 5% equity purchase. This gives them an enormous benefit in having that partner to back them up along the way. Of course a lot of that is reflected in the jump in price from $2 to $6, but the price is still climbing, and it may be worth a stab at riding it up to the next level (8 or 10?). I don't think I'd put any long-term investment in HTI just based on this PR, but definitely wish I'd heard about this earlier, like Wednesday... I still might look at this as a potential play for next week. Thanks for bringing it to my attention, Park!

The company itself seems a bit on the light side- just 37 people according to Yahoo... I bet that's changed or will change shortly with the new money coming in. For a 40 person company there do seem to be quite a few of them making some decent pocket change (at least 4 at 200k+ listed):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HTI

But at least they appear to be financially sound, only losing a couple million or so each quarter in cash, with about $20M left in the bank. As long as they keep the stock price up, they should be able to keep the lights on for a long time- and the Roche deal should be just the ticket for them.

HTI news

Mr Jiesen, since you work in the bio-pharm sector, could you take a look at this week's news re: HTI (another San Diego-based company) and give us your opinion.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061205/nytu166.html?.v=69

[Websman]

ouch, sorry to hear this.

I have one OTCBB that I like to cheer for: UCPJ I try to keep OTCBB and Pinksheet listings out of my portfolio.

AMLN looks good today. Maybe we'll get a nice bottom right here...

One of these days, you will rule the world. Probably the same day you stop buying pinky's

I'm still holding my UCPJ shares...jejeje

Go UCPJ!!!

[peanuts]

that was stupid after all, but I'm gonna make it all back by buying another 1% today at 0.057 on a 5M share buyback announcement. just you watch. After this I'm swearing off the pinks forever... (yeah right)

ouch, sorry to hear this.

I have one OTCBB that I like to cheer for: UCPJ I try to keep OTCBB and Pinksheet listings out of my portfolio.

AMLN looks good today. Maybe we'll get a nice bottom right here...

One of these days, you will rule the world. Probably the same day you stop buying pinky's

[jiesen]

bought 1% GFCI at 0.057 (when will I learn?!)

call me stupid but I took a 1% position again in GFCI at .21

that was stupid after all, but I'm gonna make it all back by buying another 1% today at 0.057 on a 5M share buyback announcement. just you watch. After this I'm swearing off the pinks forever... (yeah right)

[jiesen]

Thanks, Billyjoe. I will try not to get lost in the crowd... but it is definitely a more secure job than my previous one. Benefits are excellent as well. I would expect the stock to double within 4-5 years. If this happens, the options they have given me would be worth around 50% of my portfolio as it stands now. GPRO got dinged on the last earnings report for giving out too many options... I don't care, though, as I'm on the receiving end of it! Besides, lots of options (plus rising stock price) = happy employees.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
GPRO is sure bigger than LJPC. Don't get lost in the crowd. I see GPRO is rated an excellent place to work and their stock looks good too. Good luck in the new job.

-----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Ljpc

Just started my second week at the new job today (I now work for Gen-Probe) and have deposited my last shares of LJPC bought through the employee program- bringing my total exposure to LJPC to about 20%. I think this is the last purchase I'll be making for a while of LJPC. Of course, I will be buying stock (and receiving options) in my new employer now, and so I should get a better balance in my portfolio eventually, and not need to sell any stock to do it. I still think LJPC will be a 10-bagger eventually, just a matter of whether it gets to $1 or $30 first in the next 3 years. It'll depend totally on the results of the ongoing trial though, which breaks down like this: (this is great, I finally get to talk about my ex-employer)

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061106/lam053.html?.v=69

82 patients enrolled so far
27 were enrolled about a month ago
65 sites operating (enrolling patients)

At this rate (about 45-50 patients/month) it would take 10-11 months to get the remaining ~500 patients enrolled, but by increasing the # of sites to 120, they should shorten this to 6-8 months, depending on how fast they can do that. Since the trial ends one year after the last patient is in, that means 18-20 months until completion, and maybe another 3-6 months before results are known.

Two things have to happen in order for this stock to take off:
1) the trial has to run to completion- this means they will need to raise money next year (significant dilution here)
2) the results must be good

I put #1 as a better than 50/50 bet, and #2 (assuming #1) about a 50/50. So that's a better than 25% chance of a big payoff. Of course, there's a good chance of failure, too, and if #1 or #2 don't work out, the stock will be toast. So if you have a few bucks you want to throw on a risky biotech for 2+ years, this could be a fun long-term play for you.

Milestones to look for:
1) Funds raised for remainder of trial (needs to be within 1 year)
2) Trial completed (should be within 2 years)
3) FDA approval (could be in about 4 years)

[jiesen]

Gpro

I will most likely be making a significant investment in GPRO next week... stay tuned for details (but please comment on this, I want to hear your opinions):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GPRO&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

[jiesen]

Thanks, Webs! It's good to be back, though I am wishing I could still be on vacation.... it was really nice not to have to think about work for so long.

[Websman]

well, I'm back at work... sucks with the jet lag, but I did notice the market is floating into the sky. So I further reduced my market exposure here, by selling off about a 1.5% position in an equity fund.

Mushi mushi!
Welcome back to the USA Grasshopper!

[jiesen]

sold a 1.5% mutual fund position

well, I'm back at work... sucks with the jet lag, but I did notice the market is floating into the sky. So I further reduced my market exposure here, by selling off about a 1.5% position in an equity fund.

[jiesen]

So, you're still in Osaka Jeisen? Cool!

I got back home yesterday and have to go to work first thing Monday morning.
I'm thinking of going to London or Switzerland for a week in March though.

yep. still here! im here till friday, then back to work the next monday. so the POTW cumulative results will be a week late or so... but oh well, thats how it goes, eh? sorry your vacation is over already- but glad mine's not!

went mountain hiking yesterday, had an awesome time!

Europe will be great, Im also planning on a trip to Spain, Switzerland, maybe Prague in a year or so, whenever I can get the time free to go. London is excellent for a trip- never been to Switzerland, though.

[Websman]

So, you're still in Osaka Jeisen? Cool!

I got back home yesterday and have to go to work first thing Monday morning.
I'm thinking of going to London or Switzerland for a week in March though.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
Sorry to keep bothering you but all these companies seem to be from your neck of the woods. Have you ever had dealings with SAIC ? Impressive company from what information I've gleaned. Saw that they started in La Jolla and it made me think of you and LJPC. Put a limit order in for 16.95 and doesn't appear that it will fill. However did get some for 17.75. The employee/owners are going to do very well here getting a 15.00/ share special dividend and who knows how many shares they'll continue to hold. If you divide the total special div, by #employees = $57,000 each.

------------billyjoe

Not at all, billyjoe! Im only sorry that I cant provide the responses your questions deserve at the moment... vacation is being very good to me now. Im glad not to be at work now, especially given the latest development at LJP. (Ill expand a bit more on that after my vacation is over and I catch up on some things...like the POTW etc)

But yeah, I do have a few friends at SAIC right now, and although I havent dealt with them (completely different industry) I did apply for a job there once. I think this could turn out to be a fantastic investment.　they sure do know how to make money. Hopefully that doesnt change after they turn into a public company. I would probably want to see a few quarters worth of statements and earnings trends before putting my money in SAI, but the ipo is always an exciting and tempting place to get in, eh?

$57k/employee is quite a lot, isnt it? Though in actuality, they probably get more like $20k-30k of that for the rank and file, where the bigwigs will get millions each. just the way it works, i think. at any rate, thats still a lot of money flowing into the san diego area. SD real estate is likely to get a boost from that as thousands of SAIC employees are finally ready to make their down-payments just as the market for housing has softened...