Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

Congrats on the coal success, NBB. I wish I'd taken your tip and switched out of ARLP into FDG, but hindsight is 20/20, and I'm sure coal will continue to be very profitable for both of these companies going forward.

Yes you could do worse than DNA. It's not exactly my kind of company, since it's a little late to be buying it, now that all of its success is laid out on the table. It seems a bit expensive to me, but then again, it always has, and as it turns out, there's never been a bad time to buy DNA. It's one of just a few biotechs that made it into a full-fledged pharma co. There's a myriad of products they have on the market, which also makes it tougher for me to guage its value, but I know they're growing like crazy, and hiring everyone in sight around here. I'm pretty sure that it's a lot more fully valued than some companies, which I am trying to seek out. But if you want a steady profitable drug company, DNA could be just what the Dr. ordered. Just remember, that like any other drug company you could wake up to see it down 30% on some terrible news about a recall, or a failed trial. So if you want to be smart about it, wait until AFTER one of these announcements to pick the stock up on the cheap, rather than buying it before and regretting your decision a month later.

[New-born baby]

Gennetech

Hey Jiesen!
You know your drug stocks. What do you think of Gennetech. They have a lot coming in the pipeline. Looks like a future winner. What think ye?

BTW, not only is Fording Coal hotter than a firecracker, but so is Arch Coal. I bought a load yesterday at $60.64 and sold the Oct $60 calls for $4. Its a great stock . . . a divy, and now if it would just gradually rise to $63.65 and stay there . . . I could keep the call and the stock I think it will get called away.

[jiesen]

I may consider some OFG myself this week. How can you turn down a bargain like that?

You can't! See, the CEO of OFG thinks so, too. He just bought last week, at nearly the same price I did:

http://www.snl.com/Interactive/html.asp?F=1912753.HTML&T=OFG&Y=4&D=8%2F25%2F2005&S=1&V=DMZ2

Now if the CEO buys stock in his own company, shouldn't that give you at least some sort of a clue that it's a bargain? Just looking at the balance sheet, you can see it's trading below book! C'mon, this is not a bank about to collapse. The CEO is putting up some of his own money to say just that.

[Websman]

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

I may consider some OFG myself this week. How can you turn down a bargain like that?

[jiesen]

Bought OFG

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

[spikefader]

I'm thinking MRK may still be a good short.

It's hard to deny the monthly and quarterly bear flag for it. Price is breaking down from it.

[Websman]

Yeah, well Cashmaker is buying shares by the truckload now. . . .

I'm thinking MRK may still be a good short.

[New-born baby]

Cashmaker

Ok, so I was wrong! I just sold out at $28. Too bad I didn't get back in from lunch 10 minutes earlier, or I would have sold it then.

253M for one heart attack without evidence? They're screwed.

We're screwed, too. There won't be any new medicines for another 50 years, I bet.

Yeah, well Cashmaker is buying shares by the truckload now. . . .

[spikefader]

Weekly channel long today. Technical buy opp at the inverted SHS and neckline break at $28.10.

[jiesen]

Ok, so I was wrong! I just sold out at $28. Too bad I didn't get back in from lunch 10 minutes earlier, or I would have sold it then.

253M for one heart attack without evidence? They're screwed.

We're screwed, too. There won't be any new medicines for another 50 years, I bet.

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050819/vioxx_trial.html?.v=4

See? The jury is actually considering the evidence, and if they do that, rather than just consider a widow's grief to base their decision, it must be a verdict in favor of MRK. So, there's no verdict today, no MRK tanking...

We'll see what happens next week.

[New-born baby]

Options expiration day

No I didn't...thx

Doug,
As you know, very volatile day this one. I look for some serious red today. Monday will be green, (I hope), but this one looks red to me at 4:49 a.m.

[IIC]

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

No I didn't...thx

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

I think it already tanked, and 26 was a great time to buy. 30 is less attractive to me, and if I were looking to buy, I'd probably wait for a discount on a negative verdict, but I wouldn't expect it. I think MRK will walk from this one relatively unscathed. Fear is still pretty well priced into this, and anything less than a $10M verdict (which would get reduced to $2M eventually) will likely send MRK higher as the path to recovery clears up. Needless to say, I'm definitely not selling here, and probably won't sell until at least $40-$50 or so. I had considered buying the $30 puts for 0.3 this week, as that could protect from a truly bad verdict tomorrow AM, but I seriously doubt the jury would be so quick to condemn one of the world's leading producers of life-saving medicine. Jurors may be generally naive, but I give them at least that much credit.

MRK all the way, baby!

[New-born baby]

Cashmaker's latest post

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?