Jiesen tries to take over the world

[IIC]

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

No I didn't...thx

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

I think it already tanked, and 26 was a great time to buy. 30 is less attractive to me, and if I were looking to buy, I'd probably wait for a discount on a negative verdict, but I wouldn't expect it. I think MRK will walk from this one relatively unscathed. Fear is still pretty well priced into this, and anything less than a $10M verdict (which would get reduced to $2M eventually) will likely send MRK higher as the path to recovery clears up. Needless to say, I'm definitely not selling here, and probably won't sell until at least $40-$50 or so. I had considered buying the $30 puts for 0.3 this week, as that could protect from a truly bad verdict tomorrow AM, but I seriously doubt the jury would be so quick to condemn one of the world's leading producers of life-saving medicine. Jurors may be generally naive, but I give them at least that much credit.

MRK all the way, baby!

[New-born baby]

Cashmaker's latest post

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

[New-born baby]

You are right...MOST have been difficult to read lately...that is a sign of a bad overall market...Doug(IIC)

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

[IIC]

Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

You are right...MOST have been difficult to read lately...that is a sign of a bad overall market...Doug(IIC)

[New-born baby]

Bear Flag

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

Jiesen,
From a Dow Theory perspective, NGPS is working on a bear flag on pathetically low volume (the lower the volume, the faster the fall).
She's in the same category as KBH. They are headed South (IMO).

I thought that $6 drop in one day ought to, perhaps, put the fear of God in you when it comes to buying NGPS. But you are the best bottom fisher I have ever seen, so I defer to your knowledge.

Best to ya, Jiesen & Webs.

[spikefader]

Yea, bring on the TA guys. I want to make some money from NGPS again. Will I still be able to buy it in the teens? Inquiring minds want to know.

P&F bearish target is 12.00.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=ngps,P

Sheesh if it goes to 12.00, I can see 9.00 pretty easy from there.

I think there's a bunch of better longs out there than this one. Put this one in the draw and inspect it from time to time to see how it's developing. And when it's ready, ambush it. And it's a long way from that right now. But Jiesen is the astute bottom picker here (that sounds aweful) so I'd follow his lead if you were gonna trade it.

[jiesen]

Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

got back in at 24.4 earlier. and sure, all opinions help- even NBB's guaranteed $18 share price in 15.41 days. gives me a feel for what the market is thinking.

[jiesen]

It's amazing. Last year DHB was on a roll, then the CEO screws the shareholders by dumping a s#!tload full of stock.

I think there's somewhat of a parallel here with what CMC's selling did to NGPS after that stock hit $50. If they had just kept holding, who knows where it'd be by now... probably in the $100's I would think. But these big guys throwing millions of shares into the market sure can put a stock into a good tailspin- which can make for great buying opportunities.

A big difference between these situations, though, is that CMC is finally out of NGPS, and their people on the board have resigned, so that chapter is done for NGPS. DHB still has the CEO in place, and as long as he's there, I'm sure he can find a way to keep printing shares for himself. Best to watch out for that! When people get a taste of money for nothing, it's kind of hard to stop them from wanting more of it.

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

[Websman]

Well, just looking at book value and earnings, I'd say $3-4 would be a pretty safe entry for this one, since you have $2 in book and $0.7 EPS and growing. I'm sure it's really worth quite a bit more, though, as long as those earnings materialize as they're supposed to- but look what happened to BEL- there may be things you don't know about coming down the pike. I'd say if you don't like the CEO, then find a company whose CEO you do trust before putting up your money- or at least wait for a price damn near BV before you buy. Just remember that even the book value is potentially at risk- just look at ABRXQ today. $100M in BV as of the last statement, and a $5M market cap now- perfectly justified, too!

It's amazing. Last year DHB was on a roll, then the CEO screws the shareholders by dumping a s#!tload full of stock.

[Websman]

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

Yea, bring on the TA guys. I want to make some money from NGPS again. Will I still be able to buy it in the teens? Inquiring minds want to know.

[jiesen]

Well, it's another 'finish-at-the-low-of-the-day' for NGPS. What do you think? Some high roller is shorting the close every day? Perhaps he's a peace-nik that doesn't like defense stocks. I just don't think this is the bottom.

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

[jiesen]

Any thoughts on DHB? I'm wondering how far this thing can go down.

They have all kinds of contracts and business seems to be good, but the CEO sucks.

Well, just looking at book value and earnings, I'd say $3-4 would be a pretty safe entry for this one, since you have $2 in book and $0.7 EPS and growing. I'm sure it's really worth quite a bit more, though, as long as those earnings materialize as they're supposed to- but look what happened to BEL- there may be things you don't know about coming down the pike. I'd say if you don't like the CEO, then find a company whose CEO you do trust before putting up your money- or at least wait for a price damn near BV before you buy. Just remember that even the book value is potentially at risk- just look at ABRXQ today. $100M in BV as of the last statement, and a $5M market cap now- perfectly justified, too!

[Websman]

Any thoughts on DHB? I'm wondering how far this thing can go down.

They have all kinds of contracts and business seems to be good, but the CEO sucks.