Portfolio of the Week

[skiracer]

It's one of the hardest things for me to control and the one primary emotion that I have to work at very hard on a daily basis. I have always loved the action and nothing beats being in action an that winning feeling. But knowing yourself and controlling those feelings is one thing. Knowing yourself and not being able to do so is a problem that can and will cause you to lose your capital and bring you down. I've always felt fortunate to know an understand those characteristics about myself and being able to admit to them and not deceive myself about them being a strong part of my pyschological makeup. If you know that about yourself then half the battle is won. The other half of admitting to it and controlling it is a much bigger battle and harder to keep in control. When you keep doing the same thing over an over again and know you're doing it then you need to do some work in that area.

[Websman]

What? MTEX dares make a fool out of a Vulcan? This can not be... I will comand MTEX to make a big move up tomorrow. It is written. I must win.

[Websman]

Yep.... Thanks to you and Ski for discussing the negatives. This forum is potentially very profitable in many many ways....

Problem is.... I (really) own OSUR STILL.... AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! BillyJoe! I feel your pain dude! I have been really killed the past three days! When will I learn to take my profits and just sit in cash?!!!! why Why WHY does it kill me to sit in cash? I must have a severe mental problem!

I have a sever mental problem, yet I only hold one position at this time. I will buy more when the opprtunity presents itself. Become a Vulcan Lye.

[Websman]

Yep.... Thanks to you and Ski for discussing the negatives. This forum is potentially very profitable in many many ways....

Problem is.... I (really) own OSUR STILL.... AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! BillyJoe! I feel your pain dude! I have been really killed the past three days! When will I learn to take my profits and just sit in cash?!!!! why Why WHY does it kill me to sit in cash? I must have a severe mental problem!

I also have a severe mental problem, yet I only hold one position at this time. I will buy more when the opportunity presents itself. Become a Vulcan Lye.

[Lyehopper]

Got too much cocky "gambler" in my blood.

Thanks fellas (Spike, Ski, Webs) for the advice.

Spike, Here's how I played OSUR. I bought it just before the gap up. I sold very near the top and waited for the "little" gap to fill. when that happened, I bought again and rode it for another nice short term gain. I took just south of 17% total on the two trades an about 4 days.

Then I looked hard at shorting it, thinking that the "big" gap just might fill, I even posted (in Webs short thread) that it looked to be a good short play (but I never went short). But I also said that IF the "big" gap filled @ 12.38 I'd load the truck... Which I did. MISTAKE! the stock fell and filled the gap NOT because of a normal correction but because of negative news, YET I BOUGHT THE GAP (hard) ANYWAY!!!! STUPID!!!!.... Then I made the mistake of dismissing the news, reasoning that it wasn't really bad news, defending the company (personal attachment) and actually added more shares near the bottom yesterday!!!! STUPID AGAIN!!!! thus overloading my portfolio very heavy on that one stock (that's what killed me in real $$$).... BREAKING ONE OF MY MOST IMPORTANT AND STRICT RULES!!!! VERY STUPID!!!!.... THEN mad money Jim Crammer trashed OSUR last night and the ____ thing crashed 10% today (-10% on an overweighted and margined stock = OUCH!!!!)..... I see where I went wrong with OSUR but what really pisses me off at myself is this....

I traded hard and (almost) flawlessly during Oct and Nov this year gaining 44% in those two months alone (short and long).... I followed my rules (pretty much) and I was on a roll.... thought I was unstoppable! WHY didn't I realize that I was just a bit lucky and on a hot streak and just sit tight and nail down my nice gain and sit on the cash when I saw the (broader) correction developing? (I figure I should have gone into cash the week of 12/05) I saw it happening, I've seen it a so many times before. I repeated mistakes that I had vowed to myself to never repeat all because I was too cocky. It's funny how a big winning streak can make one stupid!.... Well I'm humbled now and I'm a tad gunshy too.

I spotted a great short play early today and I failed to pull the trigger because I was too busy worring about (and holding) a couple of long trades that were going bad (including OSUR)..... STUPID, STUPID, STUPID.... Sorry I'm rambling on. It helps me, I think..... Anyway the short mentioned is one I've stalked for months and it's finally time to go and I haven't taken my position yet, I've blown my perfect entry and NOW I'm way off my game....

I shook it off and dumped OSUR today backed out of margin and rebalanced my portfolio according to my rules.... I gotta regroup in my head... focus.... and hit this thing smart starting tomorrow, I haven't lost my recent gain but I've put a bad dent in it over the past three trading days. Well I gotta post the POTW score and hit the sack....

Again fellas.... thanks.

~Lye

[scifos]

I traded hard and (almost) flawlessly during Oct and Nov this year gaining 44% in those two months alone (short and long).... I followed my rules (pretty much) and I was on a roll.... thought I was unstoppable! WHY didn't I realize that I was just a bit lucky and on a hot streak and just sit tight and nail down my nice gain and sit on the cash when I saw the (broader) correction developing? (I figure I should have gone into cash the week of 12/05) I saw it happening, I've seen it a so many times before. I repeated mistakes that I had vowed to myself to never repeat all because I was too cocky. It's funny how a big winning streak can make one stupid!.... Well I'm humbled now and I'm a tad gunshy too.
~Lye

I'd suggest WRITING YOUR RULES DOWN and taping them to your monitor. When you feel like making a buy/sell/short/cover just read your rules before pulling the trigger. Hey, a mistake can actually make you a lot of money if you learn from it.

[Runner]

Lye, sorry to hear about OSUR. Heck I thought you were short this stock. I think once traders begin to get some returns they often through the discipline out the window. Then once the humble pie is given to them they get back in the zone. I would only suggest one thing. Write down your rules and tape it to your screen. Read it each morning and I would bet after a few weeks it will become a habit.
I've been told it takes about 21 days to form a habit and this would be a good habit to form. When I messed up my last trade with HOLX I was mad because I did not follow my rules.
Lye, you'll bounce back from this and I bet you learned something very valuable and sometimes getting hit where it hurts is the best teacher.

[Runner]

I'd suggest WRITING YOUR RULES DOWN and taping them to your monitor. When you feel like making a buy/sell/short/cover just read your rules before pulling the trigger. Hey, a mistake can actually make you a lot of money if you learn from it.

Scifos, we must have been on the same wave talking about rules.

[Lyehopper]

Tuesday's score....

Doug is on a roll now fellas!.... You're hot IIC!!!!.... You might wanna try your hand at the "tables" while in sin-city this week dude!

Jiesen's AMLN is showing some real strength now too.... Heck I might just buy me some....

Here's the score dude's.... Chin's-up!!!.... Clear your mind.... Tomorrow's a new day!!!



If you can't open the above link click here.

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/628/potw1213059gt.png

[skiracer]

Scifos, we must have been on the same wave talking about rules.

I think that to be successful you have to develope a strategy, plan, discipline, rules or call it whatever you want, as long as they are what is comfortable for you. Then stick to it unwaveringly to a tee. The other day I set that stop on HOM at my 7% stop loss point and was prepared to bail and walk away from the position when an if it hit that stop regardless of the money loss on the trade which was around $2000 under normal stop loss conditions. The same with entries. You set your point of entry and if it triggers then your in the position. If it doesn't or you miss it for some reason then you missed it and you move on. My own personal feelings are that you have to remain as close to constant and consistent in everything that you do in executing your plan or strategy in every trade if you really want to be successful. Once you can do that in an almost robotic like fashion you'll begin to see a higher success rate and less failures and confusion in your mental state of mind.
Everyone is going to make a mistake or violate one of their rules occassionally. We all do it. But if you know you're doing it on a consistent basis then you need to take a firmer grip on your emotions. How you do that can only be answered from within your own psyche. It can only be accompolished through a long repetitive process of enduring losses by honoring your stops, regardless of losing 7% or whatever it is, and cutting your losses short. By never hoping or believing that the position is going to recoup those gains. By never chasing a stock beyond your trigger or changing your plan to get into a position because you want to be in it. By never going into any trade without a plan including an entry, exit, and r/r computation of what you expect to gain or lose. By never trading just to trade for the love of the action. It would be easier to go to a resort and put your money on either the red or black. Your odds would be better. My feelings are that if you can't do this whether you are a daytrader, swingtrader, or medium term inverstor then you might have to consider not doing this. Or just buy the blue chips in a DRIP account and sock them away for the dividend growth an your retirement.
One good thing that we all have in common here is that we seem to be able to open up to each other in an honest manner and even though we appear to have acted foolishly in our actions we still get the straightforward feedback that at times will embarrass you but is at least honest and necessary if we want to keep building up from our knowledge bases.

[skiracer]

Lye,
Sent you a private message regarding my score. Check it out please.

[Websman]

Lye, I'm dumping MTEX in the morning and buying CDV. CDV will rock for the rest of the week and will make me victorious.

[jiesen]

Amln

Yeah, alright! Go AMLN! And yes, AMLN is only just getting started...

Check out the drug revenue estimates:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

This quarter looks to be headed for $40-50M up from around $20M last quarter. AMLN is HUGE!!!

[Milk Man]

Lye, I read an excellent book recently called "Adaptive analysis" by Aussie, Nick Radge. One thing he mentions is that being right is not the be all and end all of trading. Its the dollars lost and gained that makes things work. If you win less often but have larger wins then losses then it may well be better. Extremely simple, and probably patronising to someone whos been trading for so long, but works in theory. Bottom line is that it pays to be right in the system as a whole rather than being right on each individual trade. Plenty of reviews down under.

[Gary611]

Dem dames will kill ya!!

Not crying or anything, but, in the words of Christopher Walkin, " I gotta have more cowbell"!!! Take me out of DEBS (girlie play) & in CRI (who says I'm not crying!) long. Can't take those double digit red letters! If that keeps up, I'll grow my hair long & can the rosy specs, whoop-whoop!