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  • billyjoe
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 9014

    New-born,
    These are Canadian Equity Analysts' best energy trusts picks for 2006 (Raymond James Analysts)

    TDG.UN and VET.UN How do you rank them, New-born ? Thanks


    billyjoe

    Comment

    • New-born baby
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 6095

      BillyJoe

      Originally posted by billyjoe
      New-born,
      These are Canadian Equity Analysts' best energy trusts picks for 2006 (Raymond James Analysts)

      TDG.UN and VET.UN How do you rank them, New-born ? Thanks


      billyjoe
      Billy,
      I rate TDG.UN #1 and VET.UN #2. Raymond James is very good in their work on the Energy Trusts. I don't know if you have been watching it or not, but the exchange rate has soared again. It is over .8736 USD for 1.00 CD. Too high. Could go higher, I don't know. But when you compare that to .73 last year, and understand that it is near all time highs, it makes me want to wait a little before I move money across the border. I have been investing on the USA side thus far this year.

      Billy, still own your FDG shares? Well yesterday the company comes out, after lowering their guidance for 2006 and 2007 last month, and upgraded the guidance for 2006 and 2007! That's why she's been on fire last couple of days.

      I still think the market pullsback fairly soon.
      Now, here's what I did; you can laugh if you will. But FDG is selling JAN 2007$40 calls for $2.75. That means that you'd get $42.75 for your shares. Add in the $5 divy ($1.36 X 4=$5.44), and the percentage works out to about 29%. If the stock drops, you have an extra $2.65 with which to console yourself.
      If it is called away, you can re-enter and sell a higher priced call.

      PCU is hotter than a firecracker. I was wrong to get out at $59.65, don't you think?
      Last edited by New-born baby; 01-04-2006, 10:09 PM.
      pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

      Comment

      • New-born baby
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 6095

        Wrong way

        Originally posted by Runner
        NB, excellent job there ya smok’in thus far. I only have 1 position open in AMD and cut it in ½ today. I’m back in wait and see mode here. I’d like for the S&P to pop old highs. I must say yesterday caught me by surprise.
        Yes, I too expected a pullback. I was mostly in cash, having only a few shares of FDG and NFI before Tuesday. I bought PBR and CHK Tuesday. Still I am over half in cash at this point.

        I hope you make a huge pile this year!
        pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

        Comment


        • NB, last year was a good year compared to the S&P. I met my trading goals and I can’t ask for anything more than that. I’ve re-tooled my game plan and will try to avoid over trading in poor market conditions. This was one of my down falls. I would day trade in the choppy waters and a few sharks caught my butt doing it.
          I hope you have re-tooled and reflected on your past trades and have learned more by doing it then reading some high speed book. I’m also only going to run 2 models this year and this will help with position sizing and risk management.

          Comment

          • billyjoe
            Senior Member
            • Nov 2003
            • 9014

            New-born,
            I've still got my FDG. You gotta love coal these days.
            With the big dividend on the way and cost averaging, I'm in good shape. The so-called coal truck tire shortage still has me suspicious. Wish I still had some PCU, but there's lots of fish in the sea. This is going to be an interesting year.

            billyjoe

            Comment

            • New-born baby
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 6095

              Runner

              Originally posted by Runner
              NB, last year was a good year compared to the S&P. I met my trading goals and I can’t ask for anything more than that. I’ve re-tooled my game plan and will try to avoid over trading in poor market conditions. This was one of my down falls. I would day trade in the choppy waters and a few sharks caught my butt doing it.
              I hope you have re-tooled and reflected on your past trades and have learned more by doing it then reading some high speed book. I’m also only going to run 2 models this year and this will help with position sizing and risk management.
              Runner,
              Last year, I had a high percentage of winning trades (over 85%), but I did get stung on two major trades: KBH was one of them--remember? My failure that was: 1. I was out of the office the day she took a tumble, and had no pre-arranged stop set. 2. I had not protected myself with any puts/calls.
              Take away those two trades and I would have had a great year.

              At this point in my trading life I am looking for 5-6% per month on short term trades (short term meaning five weeks or less). I look for setups in which the stock appears to be on an upswing, and usually I can sell a covered call that will offer to me insurance. Furthermore, I like to be pushing the stock near the ex-date for the dividend. The dividend usually produces a run-up, and so I have an extra measure of insurance here, too.

              If one can capture 5% per month, (60% per year with some measure of reduced risk), I think that is pretty good.

              I am also going to be taking some pure option plays. Investing just a few hundred in calls or puts. These can be highly profitable if the timing is correct.

              Have a great 2006! I look forward to you posting some setups, trigger points, etc. You are an excellent thinker, and often your counter points (re disagreement) with my takes are very worthy of consideration.
              pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

              Comment

              • New-born baby
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 6095

                BillyJoe's Coal Futures

                Originally posted by billyjoe
                New-born,
                I've still got my FDG. You gotta love coal these days.
                With the big dividend on the way and cost averaging, I'm in good shape. The so-called coal truck tire shortage still has me suspicious. Wish I still had some PCU, but there's lots of fish in the sea. This is going to be an interesting year.

                billyjoe
                Billy:
                Read this:
                POINT ROBERTS, WA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 4, 2006 -- www.China-AsiaStocks.com (CAS),
                an investor and industry news portal for the China-Asia sector, provides an
                exclusive overview entitled "New Growth Opportunities for Coal Industry
                Worldwide." The demand for coal is rising due to high oil prices and increasing
                applications in steel, with China as the major driving force. Industry
                participants BHP Billiton, Puda Coal, a Chinese coking coal producer, Massey
                Energy, and Fording Canadian Coal Solar, provide viewpoints on the critical
                influences within the current coal industry.

                BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP - News) Vice President Investor Relations and
                Communications Mark Lidiard states, "Metallurgical coal is used in steel-making
                industries, and incremental demand for metallurgical coal is primarily being
                driven by the growth in the Chinese steel market..." According to Zhao Ming,
                Chairman and CEO of PUDA Coal (OTC BB: PUDC), "Mass construction of
                infrastructures in China, including but not limited to real estate development,
                extended urbanization process, west region development, and 2008 Olympic Games,
                are driving the demand for steel, therefore increasing the demand for coking
                coal."

                Both Katharine W. Kenny, Vice President Investor Relations at Massey Energy
                (NYSE:MEE - News), and Susan Soprovich, Director of Investor Relations in
                Fording Canadian Coal Trust (NYSE:FDG - News), agree that limited supply is
                another driving force for the growth of the industry. Kenny stated, "The supply
                of the coal around the world, as well in the US and elsewhere, has been unable
                to keep up with the demand. So while demand has been increasing significantly,
                the price of coal has also increased due to supply constraints."

                To Read the Full Report Click Here:


                Overview Excerpt: New Growth Opportunities for Coal Industry Worldwide

                By Fei Wang www.China-AsiaStocks.com

                January 2006

                The world economy is showing signs of accelerating growth, triggering the
                increasing demand for coal that has been instrumental in boosting investment in
                the coal industry. The coal industry worldwide is presented with new development
                opportunities.

                Katharine W. Kenny, Vice President, Investor Relations at Massey Energy,
                explains, "The demand side is obviously driven by strong economic growth around
                the world, from the US and also from China. China is having a major impact on
                demand around the world. But right behind China is India and the US. So there
                has been some significant economic recovery throughout the world that is driving
                demand for both steam and metallurgical coal..."
                At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.
                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                Comment


                • NB, what is your TGT on WMT short??

                  Comment


                  • Looking at possible S/H/S here 3 min chart

                    Comment

                    • New-born baby
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 6095

                      Wmt

                      Originally posted by Runner
                      NB, what is your TGT on WMT short??
                      WMT short target was $44.
                      pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by New-born baby
                        WMT short target was $44.
                        10-4 I thought I saw a caution signal!!

                        Comment

                        • Peter Hansen
                          Banned
                          • Jul 2005
                          • 3968

                          New Born (RBSY) Interesting Chart!

                          New Born usuallyI throw those OTBB stocks I receive almost daily in the mail promptly in to the garbage.....I did chart (RBSY) and the chart looks good............what say YOU ?

                          Comment

                          • New-born baby
                            Senior Member
                            • Apr 2004
                            • 6095

                            Penny Stocks

                            Originally posted by Peter Hansen
                            New Born usuallyI throw those OTBB stocks I receive almost daily in the mail promptly in to the garbage.....I did chart (RBSY) and the chart looks good............what say YOU ?
                            Pete
                            I am no fan of the penny stocks. The rule with penny stocks is that if you get a 10% profit, you'd best take it and run. Here's a chart of Rotoblock. The stock was good looking, over $2, and now, .20. Your $200 investment has turned into a $20 bill--minus commisions.

                            My advice:
                            1. ask Jiesen for the FA on your pick.
                            2. Stay away from it.

                            Sorry that the news isn't better.
                            pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                            Comment

                            • jiesen
                              Senior Member
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 5321

                              Originally posted by New-born baby
                              Pete
                              I am no fan of the penny stocks. The rule with penny stocks is that if you get a 10% profit, you'd best take it and run. Here's a chart of Rotoblock. The stock was good looking, over $2, and now, .20. Your $200 investment has turned into a $20 bill--minus commisions.

                              My advice:
                              1. ask Jiesen for the FA on your pick.
                              2. Stay away from it.

                              Sorry that the news isn't better.
                              http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/3950/chart12rw.gif
                              Yeah, I would have to concur with #2 there. I guess it would have been great to have picked this up at 0.2, 0.4, or 0.8, and who knows, it just might run all the way to $2. But there's no way this company with $25,000 on its books can justify a $57,000,000+ market cap, which is what you get when you multiply the OS by a stock price >$1.



                              From what I read so far at pinksheets, this flurry of PR is all just a pump so they can sell a few million shares for the rollout of a better mousetrap (checkout machine). See for yourself at:



                              Sure, if they really have some novel product that sells, they could make money, but there's no evidence to show that it'll ever happen, and I sure wouldn't say it's worth $50M for that "potential". Now the chart does look intriguing (not that I really know squat about TA) but so did ROTB and every other P&D on its initial rise. If you buy it, just make sure you're out by the EOD, and set a tight stop. You sure don't want to own it when the TA that's sucking people into this right now breaks down. The only thing moving this up right now is its own momentum, imo, and possibly a well-orchestrated pump by some boiler room guys in Vegas. caveat emptor.

                              Comment


                              • [QUOTE=New-born baby]
                                Last year, I had a high percentage of winning trades (over 85%)
                                At this point in my trading life I am looking for 5-6% per month on short term trades (short term meaning five weeks or less). I look for setups in which the stock appears to be on an upswing, and usually I can sell a covered call that will offer to me insurance. Furthermore, I like to be pushing the stock near the ex-date for the dividend. The dividend usually produces a run-up, and so I have an extra measure of insurance here, too.

                                If one can capture 5% per month, (60% per year with some measure of reduced risk), I think that is pretty good.

                                QUOTE]
                                NB, you can do that taking the market in the direction of the trend. Now we all know you’ll have some drawl downs. But heck an 85% hit rate is wonderful. Do you know your expectancy based off each dollar invested? If you’re over .60 your smoking and I need to learn your system. Really NB 85% is saying you know what your doing in this game!!

                                Comment

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