Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Hov

Well, if you believe the chart, HOV is bearish, and may fall to $39.
It is my policy to believe the chart (HON excepted). I sold the $55 HOV OCT calls for $5.30. We shall see . . . .

[ninner]

yes and dont forget SWN with its Fayetteville Shale Play....has more steam then CHK but both great stocks.....dont buy yet....like newborn says wait for a pullback(if you get one) and give the bulldozer a nudge and plow 80 over man!!!

[spikefader]

Does CHK still has steam left in it. New Born, Spike what do you guys think?

CHK: yes, I think it does, but you've missed the perfect entry for the current run imo. And I encourage everyone looking for that perfect entry and not settling for one with more risk.

OK, so what's CHK doing? It's breaking the highs of 1996 on volume, and it's been 'booming' all the way up (booming refers to busting through the upper reg channel drawn from a significant low point). What 'booming' means is that the stock is crazy bullish (But that doesn't mean you don't search for a perfect entry ). Markets will be markets; and they do that. One shouldn't ignore 'booms', and if you're holding against one, then you have more risk in my opinion. If your position has them on your side, that's a great thing. The trend is up for CHK no question about it. But the trick is to grab a great entry rather than chasing bullishness recklessly. There are plenty of perfect entries every day, and if you can't find one for CHK right now, be patient. Patience is what makes money imho; patiently waiting in ambush for a moment of vulnerability; then pouncing with a complete plan, without hesitation or regret or emotion.

With CHK I'm in ambush mode. I suggest you patiently stalk it for a return to gap support or lower channel support. If CHK long-term breakout is a real one, it will more than likely test that previous resistance (now support), so there's plenty of time.

Good luck.

[Smoodo]

How does EXC (Exelon Corp) look?

Hi there,

If you wouldn't mind, would you teach me what you can see about EXC? I'd like to use the data as an example for studying technical analysis techniques. Your answer would help me verify some things in my books.

Thanks in advance for your time and effort.

Brandon

[spikefader]

SOSA followers:
Oil is up $1.10 this morning (9 am EST). That SHOULD--I say *should*--mean that SOSA will rise some today. I don't know. Yes, the chart signals a channel short with Friday's action, but it also signalled one on Thursday's action, too. We shall see how it all comes out. I could be wrong and she drops.

Yep, good reading NB. Yes, they are minor channel shorts, but added to the other stuff in the chart, I'm a little befuddled by your reasoning to hold long. Let me explain:

I saw that channel long day you mentioned previously, and yes, it's a major channel, but remember: it's expanding, which signals caution longs. What that means is target short especially in the face of reasons to exit (like minor channel short with double top in there).

So I guess I'm just calling you on the issue of discipline to try to nail you down to exactly why you're holding long in the face of what I'm seeing. When you say "we shall see how it all comes out", can I just say this: when you're long, and you see strong valid reasons to get you out at resistance (what I've mentioned and also intraday tweezer double top) and yet despite it all you hold and say "see how it comes out", don't you think you're being undisciplined? Because a truly great trade shouldn't have to endure such mess so early on. The trades that are a breeze to hold are the ones that just do all the right things and show us NO reasons to exit. SOSA is showing the reasons. Whatever way it goes from here isn't the point. It may well go up and I'm shown to be overly cautious. It may well go down, and you may regret not acting on the signals you see. It's the acting at the time of the TA that is the important thing, no matter where it goes from here.

Anyway, just thoughts to discuss and ponder.

[Runner]

NB, any comments on these stocks?

Most are in the lower channel or should I say were...hahaha

XLE DO SLNK RRC RDC BHI TLM LNG SU UPL N MBT CNQ

Checked out influx in moneyflow and here we have it. Scanned over 7,000 stocks and returned 31.

[New-born baby]

Sosa-spike-

Yep, good reading NB. Yes, they are minor channel shorts, but added to the other stuff in the chart, I'm a little befuddled by your reasoning to hold long. Let me explain:

I saw that channel long day you mentioned previously, and yes, it's a major channel, but remember: it's expanding, which signals caution longs. What that means is target short especially in the face of reasons to exit (like minor channel short with double top in there).

So I guess I'm just calling you on the issue of discipline to try to nail you down to exactly why you're holding long in the face of what I'm seeing. When you say "we shall see how it all comes out", can I just say this: when you're long, and you see strong valid reasons to get you out at resistance (what I've mentioned and also intraday tweezer double top) and yet despite it all you hold and say "see how it comes out", don't you think you're being undisciplined? Because a truly great trade shouldn't have to endure such mess so early on. The trades that are a breeze to hold are the ones that just do all the right things and show us NO reasons to exit. SOSA is showing the reasons. Whatever way it goes from here isn't the point. It may well go up and I'm shown to be overly cautious. It may well go down, and you may regret not acting on the signals you see. It's the acting at the time of the TA that is the important thing, no matter where it goes from here.

Anyway, just thoughts to discuss and ponder.

Great post, Spike. NOW I CAN LEARN SOMETHING. Teach me how to discover a trade that I don't have to endure any reasons to get out. I am ready to learn.

But first, I'll explain my reasonings, just so you know how befuddled I am. And then, if you will, kind Sir, correct me! Then we can all learn TA, and trade like Spike!

Here's why I chose SOSA as a long.
1. That STO means a lot to me. If it crosses at the 20 line with a turn up, I am looking to buy that stock. That STO 20 cross usually shows you the bottom of a retracing stock.
2. SOSA is a driller, and I am an oil man. Oil is hot right now. (I know, that's not TA). Certainly it is the industry group to be in at this time.
3. That double top means less to me than the double bottom. (Correct me here if I need correcting). The bounce off of the support line said to me that the double top was invalid. Yes, it may make a triple top--we shall see when we get there. My knowledge of charting does not tell me at this point what SOSA will do. Truthfully, I missed that Price by Volume resistance (terrible error!) or I might not have made this trade.
4. I sold the calls to cover any retrace of the stock. If I get $13.00 out of her by Oct 21, that's 10% in a month, an acceptible level of profit. If she drops, I drop the long and the call covers any loss I might have incurred. I thought the r/r was pretty good.

So please post your comments. Thank you so much for challenging my long. I want to learn. This discussion will help a lot of people!

[New-born baby]

Hot Oil

NB, any comments on these stocks?

Most are in the lower channel or should I say were...hahaha

XLE DO SLNK RRC RDC BHI TLM LNG SU UPL N MBT CNQ

Checked out influx in moneyflow and here we have it. Scanned over 7,000 stocks and returned 31.

Most of them are hot oil stocks. How did you scan for these, and what criteria did you use? What kind of trading plan do you plan to use with these?

[skiracer]

[QUOTE=New-born baby]Great post, Spike. NOW I CAN LEARN SOMETHING. Teach me how to discover a trade that I don't have to endure any reasons to get out. I am ready to learn.

But first, I'll explain my reasonings, just so you know how befuddled I am. And then, if you will, kind Sir, correct me! Then we can all learn TA, and trade like Spike!

Here's why I chose SOSA as a long.
1. That STO means a lot to me. If it crosses at the 20 line with a turn up, I am looking to buy that stock. That STO 20 cross usually shows you the bottom of a retracing stock.
2. SOSA is a driller, and I am an oil man. Oil is hot right now. (I know, that's not TA). Certainly it is the industry group to be in at this time.
3. That double top means less to me than the double bottom. (Correct me here if I need correcting). The bounce off of the support line said to me that the double top was invalid. Yes, it may make a triple top--we shall see when we get there. My knowledge of charting does not tell me at this point what SOSA will do. Truthfully, I missed that Price by Volume resistance (terrible error!) or I might not have made this trade.
4. I sold the calls to cover any retrace of the stock. If I get $13.00 out of her by Oct 21, that's 10% in a month, an acceptible level of profit. If she drops, I drop the long and the call covers any loss I might have incurred. I thought the r/r was pretty good.

So please post your comments. Thank you so much for challenging my long. I want to learn. This discussion will help a lot of people![/QUOTE

NB
Do you have an exit strategy in place? Where would you bail on the stock if it does go the other way. Another point is that the calls you sold don't necessarily have to move like a put would if the stock goes down and then there is the issue of liquidating or exiting the option position at the price you want to protect yourself and get or keep whatever gains you're sitting on. You're also
getting close to it's expiration. So if the stock just sits range bound for awhile you're losing your edge with both the stock an options in the time element left until expiration. Also if you were to sell the stock at say a 7 or 8 % loss point and now you're out of the stock but the stock still could turn and go up and then you're still holding the call position you sold which could change the whole scenario on you. There's alot left to chance in this one.

Another point is the chart itself. A couple of decent gaps up and can't seem to hold the strength or the gap up. I think it's looking to fail and everytime it breaks down like it has after the gap up doesn't look strong especially with a stock in a strong sector energy/oil related issues. Big day for oil today and not much of a run in this stock today in light of that.

You're never going to find trades or setups that don't require the proper use of stops and entry an exit strategys. The right setups, either long or short, present the best bang for your buck. Even with that you still have to plan for the worst and to control the trade in ways other than relying on buying or selling calls or puts to hedge the position everytime.

On the other side it does look like it could be forming a double bottom but that is still conjecture at this point and no one knows if it will continue it's right side to complete the chart formation. I just can't see being in it right now with so many better looking charts and setups out there at the present time.

[Runner]

I can’t say with any certainty as to where SOSA is going. Only thing I dislike is the price bars seem to be loose since the gap up. I also think many other charts are looking awesome. Few positives I see on SOSA is the money flow today crossed my moving average and price is above the 9dma, Also the STO is hooking up and this is a good thing.

NB, none of us know the future of this stock, but if you got in off the 20 band your looking ok for now, If it stalls at the 50band or hooks down I’d dump it for a small gain/loss..

[New-born baby]

Ski

Ski,
Thanks for posting. Haven't heard from you in awhile, so I hope all is well with you.

Now to answer your questions:
1. Exit strategy: if it falls down to $11.45, I am going to exit. If it shows real weakness before that, I may bail as I see her dropping. But that's an exit strategy. The call will cover the loss. Basically, I watch the chart everyday to further analyze where the stock is at. My chart reading ability doesn't extend a long way from today's action.

2. The call I sold: I intentionally sold the OCT call because I don't want to be tied to this stock for 60, 120, or 180+days. It was an insurance policy against my chart reading. Sure, it limits the upside; but that is the price of doing business. I want 10% for that month's investment.

I am eager for someone to give me a demonstration of how to pick stocks with the best setup. I'd appreciate it much.

Thanks Ski!

[New-born baby]

SOSA revisited

I have to say that you men are correct in your assessment of SOSA. Yes, loose chart, double top/double bottom (range bound?), below average volume today--moved up on lower volume is begging for a reversal--and certainly there are better setups out there. So thank you for your comments, and feel free to post more! I welcome all of your comments!

[alice4321us]

SWSI anyone

Alright guys, I owned SWSI up until 6 weeks ago, I sold it around 22 mark but this stock is consistently riding high. Is it time to go long on this or just ride the bull. Spike, NBB, others what do ya all think??

[billyjoe]

New-born,
BMHC stock is worth $973,365.49, may be a move tomorrow.


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Swsi

Alright guys, I owned SWSI up until 6 weeks ago, I sold it around 22 mark but this stock is consistently riding high. Is it time to go long on this or just ride the bull. Spike, NBB, others what do ya all think??

I can't tell you what this thing is going to do. It is a new issue--dangerous, imho--with a cup with handle. The breakout was not with volume or power. Therefore, it could pull back hard like it did earlier. In short, I'd find another stock to invest in. But that is me and my style of investing.