Hot Pick Of The Day

[billyjoe]

New-born,
Let's see if I've got this right. You want me to sell at open if BMHC is 92.36 or above. If it opens below 92.36 put a sell order at 92.36. You know I've placed similar orders and been burned if only by a few cents. It could possibly trigger a sell at below the magic number.


billyjoe


p.s. I believe the anonymous benefactor is authoring a document at this time that will be issued tomorrow should you decide to sell.

[skiracer]

I thought this stock was in a good position to benefit from the business it does with the homebuilding sector but that was without taking a close look at what it really does. Aside from providing construction materials to home builders it also provides the labor, framing subcontractors, for a number of southern, southwestern, and western homebuilders, and depends on that service for a large percentage of it's income.
Also very recently it acquired either all or a large percentage of two western companies that provide framing labor for a number of large homebuilders out west.
I've been in the construction business, new homes and renovations for the higher end cliental, most of my life and providing labor for framing to homebuilders is not something I would view as a good foundation for a business or an investment if I had my choice.
Here is a tidbit from MSN Money on what they do:


I was under the impression that they were strictly in the business of selling construction materials and had no idea of the other end of their business.
MSM Money, which it is only their opinion amongst everyone elses, has a strong sell rating on the stock. You would also have to take into consideration that as the southern and westers homebuilders go so might BMHC since they do seem to be directly linked to one another.

In an earlier post I mentioned that I thought the stock would continue to appreciate from this point. That opinion was faulted in that it was based on the premise that their sole business was the distribution and sales of construction materials which with the circumstances surrounding the two recent hurricanes in the Gulf region would increase the demand for construction materials across the board regardless of which direction the homebuilders sector goes. In hindsight and my own opinion I would stay away from both the stock and the homebuilders sector.

[spikefader]

Here is the new weekly chart.
It is what it is....and that is that BMHC is set up for a strong pink 3rd up for the next 3 weeks.

[New-born baby]

Challenge

BillyJoe,

There is little challenge if I can't get at least $1 profit out of this stock. If you don't mind, here's what I'd like to do to play this week:
Set the sell stop at $95 for tomorrow. I think it ought to take it out.

Spike,
Friday's channel turn up was on lower than normal volume (if that turn up was predicated on the daily). Also I have noted that since the failed breakout (when the stock hit $99.99, it has been sold off with power everytime it advances to $95. It makes me a little suspicious. Nevertheless, I personally own the stock, and am looking to profit from it.

[spikefader]

...set the sell stop at $95 for tomorrow. I think it ought to take it out...

You probably mean sell limit order for $95. OK, go ahead dude. I think it's a mistake, but it ain't my million bucks haha

[New-born baby]

Just for tomorrow

You probably mean sell limit order for $95. OK, go ahead dude. I think it's a mistake, but it ain't my million bucks haha

BillyJoe,
Okay, Spike has convinced me: set the stop at $100. This thing has nine trading days to go, so I might not be able to wait until she pops to Google-like heights of $320.

[jiesen]

hmmm, let's see- you're risking $93 to gain $7 here... on basically a coin-flip of whether BMHC goes up over the next two weeks. You just might make Billyjoe a millionaire yet!

I bet you were always rooting for the contestant on "Let's Make a Deal" to go for what was behind door #3, even when he already had the car, weren't you?

[skiracer]

Here is the new weekly chart.
It is what it is....and that is that BMHC is set up for a strong pink 3rd up for the next 3 weeks.

Nothing is as it is until it is an it has been proven by doing it. I really do respect your analysis and charting and the chart does look good but it has failed at higher levels and dropped back on those occassions. The charts are only an indication of what is happenning and could proceed to happen under the best circumstances of yours or anyone else's analysis. You could be going out farther on a limb than I did with my last post regarding the homebuilding sector and BMHC's connection to that sector, which was only my own feelings and not meant to lead anyone in any direction. Personally speaking I can't see myself putting up 92+ large to make a thousand on the predication that the stock will appreciate 1 point or hopefully more. On your analysis are you rushing out to buy it at this level and time after the way it has been tracking?
I spend as much time as anyone on the T/A and charting end of this an I can only say that nothing is for sure. One can only base any prognosis for the future on their analysis of all the factors that could possibly play a part in the eventual outcome and then pray for the best especially over the short term.
Coupled with the fact that the homebuilding sector and the markets in general are in more of a funk than exhibiting bullish exhuberance this past week only strengthens my feelings about the situation for the short term when generally speaking 50% of stocks will follow the market direction regardless of their individaul strength at that time.

NBB,
Develope a strategy and plan and stick to it. If you don't believe in yourself an your pre-entry strategy from your initial analysis then why make the trade to start with. I see alot of flip flopping which only shows indecision from the start. There is nothing wrong with being wrong as long as there was a well thought out pre-arranged strategy to start with an you stick with it. Most pros are in the 6/7 out of 10 range for losers over winners to start with.

[New-born baby]

Monday's Blue Light Special

hmmm, let's see- you're risking $93 to gain $7 here... on basically a coin-flip of whether BMHC goes up over the next two weeks. You just might make Billyjoe a millionaire yet!

I bet you were always rooting for the contestant on "Let's Make a Deal" to go for what was behind door #3, even when he already had the car, weren't you?

Is there some rule that I cannot change the stop later? Let's just call this Monday's Blue Light Special. If oil falls to $55 tomorrow, I'd say the whole market is going to rocket to new heights. BMHC ought to be one of them.

[Runner]

WOW, ya’ll are really in on this BMHC thing. I remain Bullish on it until it proves me wrong

[New-born baby]

Ski--Plan two!

Ski,
No question about indecision--on my account or Spike's. I consider you and Spike far more accomplished traders than I. My initial plan failed. My plan was the cup with handle breakout (it happened) but I did not figure on BMHC failing that very day. I was away from the computer all day, and when I came home, I found out she had hit $99+, but finished at $95. I would have exited at $99. But then she pulled back to $90.

What happened? The stock got ahead of itself. She had to go back and consolidate at the $90 level. But she's going to breakout of that level--IMHO. Lower oil tomorrow--if there are lower oil prices tomorrow-- is going to have a huge impact on the market.

Let's face it: this is speculation. Nobody knows what tomorrow brings. Thomas Bulkowski--he wrote "Encyclopedia of Stock Charts"--he was a design engineer before quitting to play the market (i.e. smart guy)--says his lifetime winning trade percentage is only 49%. Hey, I beat that guy. And he wrote a book on charting! Even the experts aren't experts (so says Ecclesiastes).

Appreciate your input, Ski. Keep it coming. And if she sells off below $87 tomorrow, . . . I'd really appreciate a plan!

[skiracer]

NBB,
Solid plans and strategys are required before the fact not after. After the fact is usually a day late an a dollar short.
Would you really expect oil to fall to $55 in a day. XLE and OIH up .28 and .50 last week respectively. $55 would be a $10/11 drop. I wouldn't count on that big of a drop to happen to boost the markets.

[New-born baby]

Bmhc

Today's action is quite pretty. Should she bust resistance at current levels ($94.50), it again looks like $100 is very possible in short order.

One caution: volume is again lower than avg. Moving up on lower volume is a concern.

[New-born baby]

Jim Cramer & Bmhc

CRAMER--BMHC is bearish! (see The Street)

What do I do now?

Oh yeah, on the same article he is bearish on VPHM.

[spikefader]

CRAMER--BMHC is bearish! (see The Street)

What do I do now?

Oh yeah, on the same article he is bearish on VPHM.

Ya, but he's not heard of Spike's 'c' entry haha