Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Stalled

Let's face it: BMHC has stalled at current levels. The longer it sits still, the more likely the breakout will be to the downside. We are not quite to the 20 day level. Once that marker is surpassed, then I'd say we could very well see some real damage . . .

My opinion of the market is that we are headed South. Note the very low volume out there. The monied players are all on the sidelines. They are smart enough to know it just isn't safe out there right now. They are waiting for the big pullback to get back in the game.

People are waiting to see how the 'canes, the gas price, the heating season, the retail season, is going to go. I say the deck is so stacked against the economy that South is the only way she can go.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
Your pessimism is disturbing , though it's all true , what are we to do? Put our money back into the next beanie baby type craze , in the mattress , or what. Some people think these are the best times to make money.


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Not pessimistic

New-born,
Your pessimism is disturbing , though it's all true , what are we to do? Put our money back into the next beanie baby type craze , in the mattress , or what. Some people think these are the best times to make money.


billyjoe

BillyJoe,
I am not pessimistic; I am a realist. Optimism and pessimism are bad things; always best to live in reality. The reality is that no economy in the world can handle a doubling of the energy price, fight two wars at once, and swallow the loss of a city of 1.9 million people (New Orleans)--not to mention Buloxi, Gulfport, and numerous other towns and villages--along with all those jobs, without having an economic downturn. It is just impossible. Bush says "no new taxes." Fine, but recognize that the money has to come from somewhere. If Congress doesn't slash the budget elsewhere (cutting gov't jobs), then the Treasury has to print money. (RE: inflation). Inflation kills the stock market. Add to that the charts I've posted on the NAZ bumping its head against resistance 3 times now, and DELL a wonderful short (so says Spike), the NAZ has to fall. When DELL falls, the NAZ will go with it. It cannot go up. Make your plans for a drop in the market. It has to come--imho.

And, unless you are set against selling short, you can make money in any market. We just have to trade with the trend.

Why else has the volume dried up to next to nothing? Those guys know. They are waiting for the fall.

[New-born baby]

Gdp

The GDP figures will be released tomorrow. Figure on hanging onto your hats.

[skiracer]

I have to take exception with this analysis. First of all you're talking about if it breaks resistance at 75 which it did and failed on 3 other occassions. What is there in this chart at this time that gives the impression that if it does break 75 this time that it will continue on up to 90+. That's 15 points or 13.50% higher than 75 if you bought it at that price an it were to go to 90. An in what time frame would you expect it to do this. Are you rushing out to buy it at this level? Also there is the tremendous gap up from around 53 to 65 which could easily fill. I haven't even looked at the fundamentals so I don't know what the stock does or anything about it but just looking at your post and chart I just don't see what you see that could make you draw those conclusions. Aside from the chart what about the markets and that sector and group. How are they performing. Regardless of the chart and technical analysis they play a major factor in the performance and movement of the stock and the stocks in that group or sector. Plus the markets in general. Your earlier post stated that you were basically bearish on the markets at this time. You know that 50% of the stocks in the markets universe will follow the market direction regardless of their fundamentals even if they are above average or somewhat outstanding. So taking that into consideration, what if the general market or sector trend heads heads farther down. There are so many factors that have to be considered which aren't even evident in the stocks chart and that play a significant factor in every stocks movement that even trying to predict a point or two swing in either direction over the short or longer term is hard much less a prediction of 15 points.
Support and resistance lines are just lines in the sand. They only take on significance when they hold otherwise they are only lines that should be considered but that aren't written in stone an are the interpretation of some individual. A dozen people and you get a dozen interpretations none of which mean anything except to the person who is doing the interpretation.
I just don't see anything that validates this analysis and moreso it moving to 90+ in this market environment. I just think that you may have overlooked a number of important factors that play big roles in all of this and have to be taken into consideration aside from the chart, which in my opinion doesn't impress me an I would think that I would be looking for the hedgies who are probably in much lower to start taking their profits on any decent show of strength after the runnup this stock has had over the intermediate term.

[New-born baby]

I have to take exception with this analysis. First of all you're talking about if it breaks resistance at 75 which it did and failed on 3 other occassions. What is there in this chart at this time that gives the impression that if it does break 75 this time that it will continue on up to 90+. That's 15 points or 13.50% higher than 75 if you bought it at that price an it were to go to 90. An in what time frame would you expect it to do this. Are you rushing out to buy it at this level? Also there is the tremendous gap up from around 53 to 65 which could easily fill. I haven't even looked at the fundamentals so I don't know what the stock does or anything about it but just looking at your post and chart I just don't see what you see that could make you draw those conclusions. Aside from the chart what about the markets and that sector and group. How are they performing. Regardless of the chart and technical analysis they play a major factor in the performance and movement of the stock and the stocks in that group or sector. Plus the markets in general. Your earlier post stated that you were basically bearish on the markets at this time. You know that 50% of the stocks in the markets universe will follow the market direction regardless of their fundamentals even if they are above average or somewhat outstanding. So taking that into consideration, what if the general market or sector trend heads heads farther down. There are so many factors that have to be considered which aren't even evident in the stocks chart and that play a significant factor in every stocks movement that even trying to predict a point or two swing in either direction over the short or longer term is hard much less a prediction of 15 points.
Support and resistance lines are just lines in the sand. They only take on significance when they hold otherwise they are only lines that should be considered but that aren't written in stone an are the interpretation of some individual. A dozen people and you get a dozen interpretations none of which mean anything except to the person who is doing the interpretation.
I just don't see anything that validates this analysis and moreso it moving to 90+ in this market environment. I just think that you may have overlooked a number of important factors that play big roles in all of this and have to be taken into consideration aside from the chart, which in my opinion doesn't impress me an I would think that I would be looking for the hedgies who are probably in much lower to start taking their profits on any decent show of strength after the runnup this stock has had over the intermediate term.

Ski,
Thank you for your well considered analysis. (And it was very well considered--thank you). Your statement that I did not factor in market sector nor the entire market trend is not entirely true. I did note that the stock is in the pharma group, and that group (health care) is broadly considered a safe haven in a falling market. True, I did no FA on it. My analysis is based upon the chart alone. Any stock that gaps up $20 has, in my opinion, a runaway gap, especially when the pullback on the chart presented has already occurred, and it was not a steep one.

Dow Theory says a bullflag like that ought to produce a $90 stock--minimum. I was trying to be consistant with Dow Theory.

We shall see what happens. You may very well be correct. Under "normal" market conditions (i.e. a bull or even a non-trending market), I would think that she'd make her target. If it turns out to be a total bear today . . . .

I am with you on this point: I fear the GDP numbers being released this morning.

[skiracer]

[skiracer]

Long message. Took up two posts but I think it's worth taking a look at in regard to the drug and healtcare sector/group. Nothing is written in stone but most of them follow the market direction, their sector, and group to a very large degree. Working within the best performing sectors and groups when they are trending up in a stengthening market in general will put you in the best spots with the biggest edge in your favor. Overlooking that will only have a negative effect over the long run.

[New-born baby]

Thanks, SKI

Thank You, Ski,

I just got back, and I have to leave for church pretty soon. I'll read the posts tonight. But I thank you for the posts. I like the skill those guys have in analyzing the markets.

[spikefader]

.....In my country we laugh at such paltry returns (.715%) , but if you are happy, we salute you.(benefactor)

LOL

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I've learned my lesson never to get involved again. A good thing I didn't get the consolation prize.


billyjoe

[Peter Hansen]

New Born

Good Day Sir:

I get a Health/Investment News Letter (Bob Livingston) and I have been following his portfolio but do not own any of the stocks. Since 5/3/05 it has risen approximately 41% .....he appears to favor metals and uranium stocks....some are pinksheets......The portfolio has in it .....GG, IUCPF.PK, JNRRF.PK, MDG, NEM, PGH, PTF, SCXRF.PK, SSRI, STHJF.PK, UEXCF.PK and the only loser is STHJF.PK not a bad record. New Born ....do you have any of these or care to comment on any...the uranium plays may be worth looking into?

[New-born baby]

Cans

Good Day Sir:

I get a Health/Investment News Letter (Bob Livingston) and I have been following his portfolio but do not own any of the stocks. Since 5/3/05 it has risen approximately 41% .....he appears to favor metals and uranium stocks....some are pinksheets......The portfolio has in it .....GG, IUCPF.PK, JNRRF.PK, MDG, NEM, PGH, PTF, SCXRF.PK, SSRI, STHJF.PK, UEXCF.PK and the only loser is STHJF.PK not a bad record. New Born ....do you have any of these or care to comment on any...the uranium plays may be worth looking into?

PGH and PTF are Canroys and good companies paying a monthly divy. I have owned PTF, but do not currently have it in my portfolio. These two are excellent companies, and probably the best idea is buy the very best Canroys and never sell them.

Uranium is a good choice, too. I have not owned or analyzed any uranium plays, but I think they look good going forward.

The question on all of these is the question of timing: is this the time to enter any of these stocks? I do not have an answer for that right now.

[Peter Hansen]

New Born

PGH and PTF are Canroys and good companies paying a monthly divy. I have owned PTF, but do not currently have it in my portfolio. These two are excellent companies, and probably the best idea is buy the very best Canroys and never sell them.

Uranium is a good choice, too. I have not owned or analyzed any uranium plays, but I think they look good going forward.

The question on all of these is the question of timing: is this the time to enter any of these stocks? I do not have an answer for that right now.

New Born
Thanx for yor comments ....they are always helpful to me, and to others here I am sure!

[New-born baby]

BMHC: 29 Sept

Here's the daily look at BMHC. Today she moved up strong on just average
volume. Volume has been absent lately, and a return to average volume was refreshing. She hit her head against resistance today. If she can blast through it, she might move to new heights.

Of concern is the health of the market in general. When volume is so absent, it seems everyone is just holding their breath, waiting for something bad to happen. That's the way it was early this morning.

Here's the chart: