Skiracer's stock slopes

[Gatorman]

Gator,
I didn't like it the other day that's why I bailed at 15.20. Webs held on and what seemed like a good play holding on is now in the red. So like me you lose a decent amount on the position and you had it in the green for a little gain yesterday. Why didn't you sell it at above 15.60? I welcomed the chance to get out at 15.20 the other day and although a .55 loss it was still way above my 7% stop loss point. It might be a decent short right here.

Ski:
You are correct, I should have sold earlier but, given the past track record of this stock, thought it might rebound. Live and learn, I guess. Sometimes we let emotional reason over-ride our discipline.
As Doug has said on many occasions, discipline and adherence to our sell plans should never be violated. Unfortunately, we all seem to do it from time to time.
Not sure it is quite ripe as a short but may very well be soon.

[skiracer]

Here is todays members portfolia spreadsheet. Some impressive gains this week. Some were clouded over by misunderstood youthful exhuberance but in the end, that's a pun, like gerbils they always work themselves out. I think this little exercise is providing exactly what I thought it would and appreciate everyone's participation even though I am the one doing all the work. No problemo and just kidding. Great picks and great dialogue about them. Looking forward to anyone else who would like to place their portfolio up for review. All positions must be owned for real please. No imaginary portfolios. Here's the sheet: And one other thing. I'm going to be going back to the original format of placing all the dialogue above the sheet. Much easier to edit and I can leave it here without having to delete it from the sheet everday. Don't know how it will work out until you try it and see. Much easier to read up here.

[IIC]

Sometimes we let emotional reason over-ride our discipline.
As Doug has said on many occasions, discipline and adherence to our sell plans should never be violated. Unfortunately, we all seem to do it from time to time.

I may have said that...and I do believe it...But on my intermediate and longer term trades selling is my biggest weakness...I told my trading partner a while back..."How about I pick 'em and turn 'em over to you to decide when to sell 'em"...I was serious...Best, Doug

[skiracer]

And the spreadsheet for my watchlist. Everytime that I take a moment to mention that I'm having a good week and that if this or that happens etc.. it's a sure bet that the next day will straighten me out. I should know this by now. Took a whacking today on a couple of decent gains which levelled out the list's gains for the week. A number of these will not be here after the weekend. One that I am looking at closely for next week is ICON. It's getting ready to go off. I also like HWCC as a buy right here at this level. SMSI still looks good to me and this area wouldn't be a bad entry point. How about how FMD finished the week. What a fall from grace. It was on a precarious spot and consolidated some of those gains underneath those heights yesterday and today. Once that domino effect starts rolling it is hard to stop when their charts look like this one did. This week looks good for a long play after this bloodbath today. I'm keepig it on the list for next week to see which way the wind is going to blow. Big drop from Ernie's entry. Keeping ACOR on the list for a possible short play this week.

[Runner]

I may have said that...and I do believe it...But on my intermediate and longer term trades selling is my biggest weakness...I told my trading partner a while back..."How about I pick 'em and turn 'em over to you to decide when to sell 'em"...I was serious...Best, Doug

Doug, I think this is something we all wrestle with. One of my past biggest problems has been watching intraday charts. I would most always get to emotional, as I’d watch every little tic. I'm now more interested in exits then entries. I’m getting much better in this area and I’ve still got a ways to go in this area. Look what DRIV did to me. I still think I made the proper move with my stop plan and I’d do it again. Selling is a very important process of any system. I’m trying to be more passive in this instead of active. What I mean is I’m trying to make less decisions and let the market take me out. I did not do that on all trades this week and however it is something I’ve identified as a weakness in myself. I think admitting this is the first step in correcting it.

[Runner]

It's a thin line between profit/loss and one day to the other isn't it? You had it by the beezers and were in control of the trade yesterday. It never fails to amaze me how these things can change from one day to the next. Don't procrastinate or you'll be down farther. Looks like it could be setting up as a short. This could see 13/13.50 levels very easily.

Ski, we really don’t know what his objectives are. Some people allow more downside risk in trades. I’m cautious when giving advice as sure as I do the market makes me look like a fool. Happens all the time. I dropped ELN because it did not meet my criteria to begin with. I think a post from somewhere else got me emotional and I bought it where I thought support was. Anyway reviewing my decision later that night I just did not want to be in a stock that was caught in a sideways range. I would much better let it show its hand and then maybe enter on a clean pullback.

[skiracer]

I'd like to get your feedback on this percentage of gain and loss because this is an interesting phenomenom.
The ACOR short entry was 1000 shares @ 17.70 and I covered the short @ 16.98 for a .72 gain per share or 4.10 %. The profit on the 1000 shares was 720.00.

The ELN long entry was 1000 shares @ 15.75 and I exited the position at 15.20 for a loss of .55 per share or 3.5 % . The loss on the 1000 shares was 550.00.

The FMD short entry was 2000 shares @ 70 and I covered the position at 68.35 for a gain of 1.65 per share or 2.4 %. The gain on the 2000 shares was 3300.00.

The LIOX long entry was 2000 shares @ 7.66 and I exited the position at 7.12 for a .54 loss per share or 6.8 %. The loss on the 2000 shares was 1080.00

I had two winners for a total of 720 + 3300 = 4020 and the total % gain on the two positions was 4.1% + 2.4 % = 6.5 %.

I had two lossing positions for a total of 550.00 + 1080 =1630.00 and the total % loss on the two positions was 3.5 % + 6.8 % = 10.3 %.

It would seem from first glance that I had lost money if you were to look at the percentages on each trade as the losing percentages totalled more than the gaining percentages. Percentage wise I lost 10.3 % vs 6.5 % or 3.8 % more on the loss side.

But my actual gains were 4020 vs 1630 or 2390 to the plus side.

Now how would you look at the portfolio. Is it up or down percentage wise. The percentages look to be down but in actuallity the portfolio's capital increased by 2390.00. How would you figure the portfolio to be up or down % wise?

[skiracer]

Ski, we really don’t know what his objectives are. Some people allow more downside risk in trades. I’m cautious when giving advice as sure as I do the market makes me look like a fool. Happens all the time. I dropped ELN because it did not meet my criteria to begin with. I think a post from somewhere else got me emotional and I bought it where I thought support was. Anyway reviewing my decision later that night I just did not want to be in a stock that was caught in a sideways range. I would much better let it show its hand and then maybe enter on a clean pullback.

Of course. Everyone looks at the situation from their own perspective. I was just contemplating on what a difference a day can make and the decision making process and how it can effect the outcome over the course of a day or two. This is a prime example of it.

[IIC]

I'd like to get your feedback on this percentage of gain and loss because this is an interesting phenomenom.
The ACOR short entry was 1000 shares @ 17.70 and I covered the short @ 16.98 for a .72 gain per share or 4.10 %. The profit on the 1000 shares was 720.00.

The ELN long entry was 1000 shares @ 15.75 and I exited the position at 15.20 for a loss of .55 per share or 3.5 % . The loss on the 1000 shares was 550.00.

The FMD short entry was 2000 shares @ 70 and I covered the position at 68.35 for a gain of 1.65 per share or 2.4 %. The gain on the 2000 shares was 3300.00.

The LIOX long entry was 2000 shares @ 7.66 and I exited the position at 7.12 for a .54 loss per share or 6.8 %. The loss on the 2000 shares was 1080.00

I had two winners for a total of 720 + 3300 = 4020 and the total % gain on the two positions was 4.1% + 2.4 % = 6.5 %.

I had two lossing positions for a total of 550.00 + 1080 =1630.00 and the total % loss on the two positions was 3.5 % + 6.8 % = 10.3 %.

It would seem from first glance that I had lost money if you were to look at the percentages on each trade as the losing percentages totalled more than the gaining percentages. Percentage wise I lost 10.3 % vs 6.5 % or 3.8 % more on the loss side.

But my actual gains were 4020 vs 1630 or 2390 to the plus side.

Now how would you look at the portfolio. Is it up or down percentage wise. The percentages look to be down but in actuallity the portfolio's capital increased by 2390.00. How would you figure the portfolio to be up or down % wise?

It would depend on whether or not you used the same money more than once.

Assuming you did not...then you'd add up the total amount invested. Divide the total gain by that amount...If you did then you could take the total amount you started with and divide the gain by it.

[Runner]

Ski, what I can’t figure out is your R/R ratio. If your using 7% on each trade your not getting 1R in profits. Now imagine if a few trades went over your 7% risk point. I would bet you would really be excited. I don’t use a fixed amount or fixed percent as risk. But hey if it works for you great. I bet you could even use less shares and become more profitable by letting them run. I’m not being critical and mean this all in good spirit.

Ski, I took the time to run the number here is how I see it...
ACOR-17.70 entry with stop @ 18.98
1000 shares= 17,700 (- com)
Entry to stop 7.01% or 1,238.00
Exit 16.98 or (+) 4.07% profit 722.00
Risking 1.28 to gain .72
Reward to Risk (-)0.6

FMD-70.00 entry with stop @ 74.90
2000 share= 140,002 (-com)
Entry to stop 7.00% or 9,798.00
Exit 68.35 or (+) 2.36% or 3,303.00
Risking 4.90 to gain 1.65
Reward to RISK (-)0.3

ELN- 15.75 entry with stop @ 14.64
1000 share=15,752.00 (-com)
Entry to stop 7.05% or 1,112.00
Exit 15.20 or (-) 3.48% or 552.00
Risking 1.10 to lose .55
Reward to risk (-) 0.5

LIOX- 7.66 entry with stop @ 7.12
2000 shares=15,322.00 (-com)
Entry to stop 7.05% or 1082.00
Exit 7.12 or (-) 7.05% or 1082.00
Risking .54 to lose .54
Reward to Risk (-) 1.0

Break down:

Win 2 or R/R .6+.3=(Neg .90)
Lose 2 or R/R 1.0+.5=(Neg 1.5)

* note realized I had all positions entered with 2.00 round trip..


I’ll use LIOX as an example with 100K account since it is still in my PC.

Entry 7.66 with just 683 share and T= 5,233.78 @ 1% risk of account. Entry to stop is a whopping 19.06% but if 1R is hit and stops you out your loss is 999.18. First 1R target is 9.12 . I’m just using this as an example and I know it is not practical or is it? I feel one could still meet objectives with sizing the positions. Sometimes fewer shares will allow us the chance to let the position take its course. A hit rate can be great but if the R/R is off your profits might not keep up with the losses. Not saying this is the case here.

Mna it is late and I'm waiting for my meds to kick in so I can get some sleep. hope I'm not messing everything up here.

[skiracer]

Ski, what I can’t figure out is your R/R ratio. If your using 7% on each trade your not getting 1R in profits. Now imagine if a few trades went over your 7% risk point. I would bet you would really be excited. I don’t use a fixed amount or fixed percent as risk. But hey if it works for you great. I bet you could even use less shares and become more profitable by letting them run. I’m not being critical and mean this all in good spirit.

Ski, I took the time to run the number here is how I see it...
ACOR-17.70 entry with stop @ 18.98
1000 shares= 17,700 (- com)
Entry to stop 7.01% or 1,238.00
Exit 16.98 or (+) 4.07% profit 722.00
Risking 1.28 to gain .72
Reward to Risk (-)0.6

FMD-70.00 entry with stop @ 74.90
2000 share= 140,002 (-com)
Entry to stop 7.00% or 9,798.00
Exit 68.35 or (+) 2.36% or 3,303.00
Risking 4.90 to gain 1.65
Reward to RISK (-)0.3

ELN- 15.75 entry with stop @ 14.64
1000 share=15,752.00 (-com)
Entry to stop 7.05% or 1,112.00
Exit 15.20 or (-) 3.48% or 552.00
Risking 1.10 to lose .55
Reward to risk (-) 0.5

LIOX- 7.66 entry with stop @ 7.12
2000 shares=15,322.00 (-com)
Entry to stop 7.05% or 1082.00
Exit 7.12 or (-) 7.05% or 1082.00
Risking .54 to lose .54
Reward to Risk (-) 1.0

Break down:

Win 2 or R/R .6+.3=(Neg .90)
Lose 2 or R/R 1.0+.5=(Neg 1.5)

* note realized I had all positions entered with 2.00 round trip..


I’ll use LIOX as an example with 100K account since it is still in my PC.

Entry 7.66 with just 683 share and T= 5,233.78 @ 1% risk of account. Entry to stop is a whopping 19.06% but if 1R is hit and stops you out your loss is 999.18. First 1R target is 9.12 . I’m just using this as an example and I know it is not practical or is it? I feel one could still meet objectives with sizing the positions. Sometimes fewer shares will allow us the chance to let the position take its course. A hit rate can be great but if the R/R is off your profits might not keep up with the losses. Not saying this is the case here.

Mna it is late and I'm waiting for my meds to kick in so I can get some sleep. hope I'm not messing everything up here.

You're not messing anything up bud. I put the numbers up here because I wanted to get feedback and you gave me yours. That's all I'm asking for.
My stop loss point is at 7%. I very seldom do not honor that point and if I do it is not by much. MED is going to be an example. I like the stock alot and my 7 % stop loss is 9.39. I would give this position alittle more room but if I did exit at 9.39 and took the loss it would be .71 per share x 2000 shares = 1420.00 loss. My account would still be up from the 2390 gains from the other 4 trades but the percentages would be way to the red side if I added this 7% loss to the other two losses which totalled 10.3 % + 7% = 17.3 %. This is hypothetical because I haven't exited MED as of this posting.

My r/r numbers always don't add up or coincide with my position sizing. In my own opinion it is to much work to try to work within those parameters of sizing your positions to fit your risk and reward. When I look at the r/r end of it I take into consideration where I think the stock could fall to vs what I think I could get out of the position. If risking a certain % could get me a better % like 3 or 4 to 1 then I like that. My stop loss point is usually somewhere near or a little lower than my r/r calculations. And on the other side I usually try to hit a target or let it run out as far as I can but my mindset changes as the trade and circumstances change, although I try to adhere to the plan.

I have set 20000 as a base position size in pricing and 1000 share blocks as the base position unit of shares. If the stock is at 9.50 or 6.49 or whatever the price may be I buy the number of shares, usually in a round number lot, that is as close to 20000.00 as I can. If the share price is 50 or 60 then every 20000 increment is a full position size. FMD was 7 full positions at 70 per share pricing wise to get two full positions (2000 shares) share wise.

I can understand your logic in trying to make the stops and the targets work out to within your r/r parameters. I feel that is a good way to look at it and if it works for you then that's great but you cannot escape the mathematics of the real gains and losses regardless of how you approach the r/r calculations.

One thing that remains constant is the 7% stop loss. But these are the numbers of the last 4 closed out positions and the loss / gain numbers regardless of the whatever the actual r/r was to start out with and I'm not saying that anyone should change their style or strategys. If I position sized the trades so that every trade was within a specific % ratio to my stop loss and to my r/r there is no way that I would be making money. I hope this explains my rationale a little better. The numbers are what they are.
Here's where two trades and maybe another one went to the 7% loss within the 5 total trades but the account would still be showing a gain after those trades even though the percentages of losing trades would be higher than the % of winning trades. Another point is that even though the base unit of 20000 per position is what I start with I like some trades more than others and will go into a trade that I like much more with a greater amount of full positions like with FMD. Just trying to give an example of how your account could be in the green but your percentages in the red.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I added up the cost of all your entries :

ACOR----$17,700
ELN-------15,750
FMD------14,000
LIOX------15,320

Total =$62,770

-------Your exit totals :

ACOR----$18,420
ELN-------15,200
FMD------17,300
LIOX------14,240

Total =$65,160

Exit $65,160 / Entry $62,770 = 3.81%........good job !

-----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

billyjoe;69530]Ski,[/b]
I added up the cost of all your entries :

ACOR----$17,700
ELN-------15,750
FMD------14,000
LIOX------15,320

Total =$62,770

-------Your exit totals :

ACOR----$18,420
ELN-------15,200
FMD------17,300
LIOX------14,240

Total =$65,160

Exit $65,160 / Entry $62,770 = 3.81%........good job !

-----------billyjoe

Billyjoe,
The most simple basic way of doing it and it works for me. You cannot escape the mathematics of the numbers. You can manipulate them as you want or see fit to get close to any results you desire but if the account increases in capital balance that's all that counts. I was thinking of how Runner approaches it and his way is really a solid plan that is calculated so that the entry trigger, stop loss point and risk ratio, and reward/target are all percentages that are figured to work together so that over a number of trades if you don't violate the stop loss and let them run out to target then over the course of 10 trades you should be making money. I'm not sure that I'm 100 % correct with the explanation of his plan but I think that's close and he'll correct me if I'm wrong. My plan or model is not as rigid or as well figured as his in the structure of the percentages and their relationship to one another.

What I was trying to show in my post about the gain or loss percentages was that you could be down percentage wise on a number of trades but be up in total gains in your capital account.
The only way is for a few of them to be larger gains and positions sizes while the others adhere to some basic position size and the losses are always cut at a specific maximum. 7% works for me and when I see or feel that it is a losing cause earlier I'm out at that point. My structure, although a distinct structured plan, is looser in the way I size the positions as per how much I like one over another and I do like some much better than others. But I always use a 1000 share block with 20000 per position as the base sizing units and try to work as close to those increments as I can.

You must have a plan. Some plan that you adhere to but not necessarily would work for someone else in the way it does for you personally. But as you pointed out in with your calculations. If the gain value is a bigger number value than the losses value then you have to be happy and you're making money less all the other crap you have to deal with in life. Thanks Billyjoe and thanks Runner for taking the time to take a look at this and give your thoughts on it all.
That makes it worth it but not as much as the money right.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I also try to keep close to equal dollar amounts per position and diversify as much as possible. This way a big loss after market isn't so large a percentage of the total portfolio. Many people say don't hold more than 5 stocks because you can't keep track of them all. I don't want to have that much in one stock so I've usually got 10 at a time and might even increase that number. A few years ago I might have 50% in one stock, that's just gambling in my book.

------------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Ski,a
I also try to keep close to equal dollar amounts per position and diversify as much as possible. This way a big loss after market isn't so large a percentage of the total portfolio. Many people say don't hold more than 5 stocks because you can't keep track of them all. I don't want to have that much in one stock so I've usually got 10 at a time and might even increase that number. A few years ago I might have 50% in one stock, that's just gambling in my book.

------------billyjoe

I try to limit it to 5/6 open positions maximum at once but it varies. What I've done is cut back on the maximum price I will pay for a stock when looking for setups. I try to limit the trading to stocks under the 40 range. When I see a stock like FMD at 70 and 1000 shares is going to cost me 70000 to make maybe 3 or 4 thousand it makes me give it some thought. 2000 shares even moreso because even at 7% it's a costly loss so in those cases I have to keep even a tighter rein on them and give them a shorter leash like 2/3 %. In those cases I really have to like the play and be almost sure in my analysis. Look at what FMD has done over Thursday and Friday to the short side as a continuation of that short play.