Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

Ski...Don't go off on me...I think the pattern looks nice...BUT...You talk about the "true definition"...This is not close to anyone's TRUE definition that I know of.

You know how hard it is to find ones that are perfect. I look for a uniformily shaped cup, close to U shaped, without to many ups and downs and jagged candles inside the cup base itself, a gently sloping handle with volumn lessening on a gentle slope comparable to the handle. The right side should proceed to a bit higher than the right side top, O'Neil calls for perhaps .05/.10 higher than the left side before starting to form the handle. I use Bulkowski's and O'Neil's definition as the, "true definitions", and like Spike's "fuzzy logic, of which I have become a firm believer, give the pattern alittle leeway but not much and I try to get them as close to what I believe is the true definition.
But please provide what you feel is the true definition and feel free to pick this chart apart in any way that you feel needs to be done to get it right. I have no problem with that or open criticism of any chart that I post here or anywhere.
Where do you feel it falls short and I know that it is not a "perfect example" but please explain why it is not close to any true definition.

[stenzrob]

Ski, Thanks very much for your look at the CYBS chart.
regards ... stenz

[IIC]

You know how hard it is to find ones that are perfect. I look for a uniformily shaped cup, close to U shaped, without to many ups and downs and jagged candles inside the cup base itself, a gently sloping handle with volumn lessening on a gentle slope comparable to the handle. The right side should proceed to a bit higher than the right side top, O'Neil calls for perhaps .05/.10 higher than the left side before starting to form the handle. I use Bulkowski's and O'Neil's definition as the, "true definitions", and like Spike's "fuzzy logic, of which I have become a firm believer, give the pattern alittle leeway but not much and I try to get them as close to what I believe is the true definition.
But please provide what you feel is the true definition and feel free to pick this chart apart in any way that you feel needs to be done to get it right. I have no problem with that or open criticism of any chart that I post here or anywhere.
Where do you feel it falls short and I know that it is not a "perfect example" but please explain why it is not close to any true definition.

I don't recall WON saying anything about one side of the cup should be .05 to .10 higher/lower than the other side....But I may be wrong. However, in this case the left side high is 10.80 and the right side is 8.70...that is too big a difference to be considered a "Classic"...Also, both Bull and WON say the handle must be a minimum of a week.


Like I said...I agree w/ you that the pattern is nice...Just not a true or "classic" CwH.

And yes...I know how hard it is to find ones that are "classic"...even by my own definition of what that is.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
breakoutwatch.com claimed that of 3764 canslim breakouts in a 38 month period between '03-'06, 80% gained >5% and only 18% failed. Nearly 100 canslim breakouts per month? They couldn't have been all classic or perfect. Being "close" to classic has to significantly improve the odds of success. I don't know if the perfect chart would insure perfect success but it seems that it might come close. The annualized return on the 3764 breakouts including failures was 88%.


---------------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I forgot if you mentioned an automatic stop put on your initial price. Do you use a set %. Is your trailing stop also a set % after initial gains or can that vary? Thanks

----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Ski,
I forgot if you mentioned an automatic stop put on your initial price. Do you use a set %. Is your trailing stop also a set % after initial gains or can that vary? Thanks

----------billyjoe

Well it's is not automatic in that when the trade is executed the stop is automatically placed. I usually wait a bit and then use a 7% stop from my entry price. The trailing stops are really me just moving the stop up as the stock moves up in price off my entry. With CPLA is set the initial stop at $4.83 below the $69 entry price or at $64.17. When the stock went to $72.39 or so and closed I move the stop up to $72 because I thought there would be profit taking in the a.m. and that's what happened. And now it is down farther but the stop protected my early gains.

[skiracer]

Ski, Thanks very much for your look at the CYBS chart.
regards ... stenz

Stenz,
Sometimes when you ask someone to look at something and give their opinion their opinion isn't what you may want to hear but the honest opinion whether it is right or not is the best opinion. It is all a learning experience. I read everyone one of these posts if they contain a lead or something regarding stocks or setups. Never know where you are going to find the next winner.
CYBS was up .26 today off the handle. That's a start. It's really all about how you handle yourself and manage the trade that counts. Finding the right patterns and chart formations that are ready to perform as expected is what it is all about. The traders that do that the best are going to come out on top the most. I think that is about as good as anyone can put it. Good luck with the trade and anytime I can give you my opinion I will. Thanks for asking. I wish more would. This forum needs more good back and forth dialogue regardless if it is all what we want to hear about our picks. It is the very best way to evolve into better traders and make more money.

[skiracer]

This is the definition at Bulkowski's site, www.thepatternsite.com, and this is what I try to look for and get as close to with the chart formations that I want to trade. I know it is hard to find the true or exact chart formation to match the definition. That is the primary reasoning behind my coming to adhere to Spike's "fuzzy logic" in determining and using the patterns that I think will work out as expected. I have been doing this for quite some time and have made a study of what works and what doesn't the higher percentage of times. I know what patterns work out the best for me as I have logged in hundreds of them in my trading log. I know which ones usually work and which ones don't. That doesn't mean that I win all the time but I can guarantee that the ones that I do trade will provide the highest percentage of winners if you were to track them. I am very methodical with it. Very methodical.

[skiracer]

I also had this take on the chart from my own point of view. Either way it now appears to me that we are in a downtrend and that perhaps the short side is where to look for the best setups and trades.

[skiracer]

I have a problem with my link to StockCharts Public Chartlists. It is not working. I changed it the other day but don't know what I did to make it stop working. Could anyone help me with this please.

[IIC]

I have a problem with my link to StockCharts Public Chartlists. It is not working. I changed it the other day but don't know what I did to make it stop working. Could anyone help me with this please.

Type this...should do the trick...Doug


PS: In the first brackets every character is case sensitive...make sure you type it exactly as posted

[skiracer]

Type this...should do the trick...Doug


PS: In the first brackets every character is case sensitive...make sure you type it exactly as posted

Doug,
If I had a million to bet I would have bet it all that you would be the one to help me out. Thanks for the help. You're the best. It's working beautifully now.

[IIC]

Doug,
If I had a million to bet I would have bet it all that you would be the one to help me out. Thanks for the help. You're the best. It's working beautifully now.

No Problemo...Best, Doug

[skiracer]

Here are my two latest charts at Stockchart Public lists. Both are short selections. APOL is working out as expected. SDTH looks to be still in the 5th wave up and has not yet topped. Waiting for it to finish the 5th wave for the short entry.

[IIC]

As I posted earlier on my thread I trimmed off some more SDTH +3.30...Have a 1/4 stake left.

I'm not doubting your technical take on it but why do you say it is not in a strong sector?

DJ Specialty Chemicals is in the top 6 for 1 week , 1 mo, 2mos, 3 mos, 6 mos. and YTD