Skiracer's stock slopes

[New-born baby]

My last victim

Ski--
While you're working on a bloody nose
Any news on HANS or TOL?

He didn't like my stock picks, either.

[skiracer]

NB,
Actually like AMLN and am keeping a close eye on it. Webs and you were talking about it an brought it to my attention. I thought there might be something there looking at the weekly chart this past week. Didn't know much about the stock other than the chart and then saw the tidbit about the Byetta drug and didn't know that there was so much hinging on it's acceptance. Wasn't knocking the stock but just hoping to pass on something that I came across which might help us out.
As far as GOOG goes. I was way off base on my take on it. $300 for a stock just amazes me yet people just keep buying it an it just keeps going up. You saw something there I didn't and glad you got it.
I posted the double tidbit on GOOG by accident an wasn't trying to be sarcastic. Actually the 3rd little tidbit was on MCD and was for Webs. He's been talking about it and the comment on Briefing.com was a positive remark. I didn't realize I posted the one on GOOG twice so I'll post the one on MCD below now. I love the avitars you put up. Also will keep an eye out for anything that comes across on HANS or TOL.

[New-born baby]

Thank You, Ski

Thank you for another fine post, Ski. Seriously, I was just playing with you. You know, the old Mr. Market humor thing. I love the Briefing.com posts. I think those guys know what they are talking about.

AMLN--I'm down on it, and I don't like it. I foolishly bought at $23.40--above support. Good thing Spike is on vacation in the basement or he'd give me a well-deserved sermon on 'buying at support; selling at resistance." I could kick myself a million times over for that blunder. And I probably will have many opportunities to do so. I just hope it doesn't pull a BEL on me and take me down with it.

Having said that, I bought the stock for the earnings growth. Jiesen says he'll eat his hat if it goes to zero. Easy for him to say; he doesn't even own one. So the earnings need to grow. And then you post saying they are not going to grow. DOH! What I really need is Jim Cramer to pump this thing so I can dump my shares. Where is that guy when you NEED him?

Oh yeah, if you like AMLN, I hope it is SHORT. For your sake.

[skiracer]

I actually liked it long. Right now you're .02 above -7% from your entry so strategically you're still above a 7% loss point if that were your discipline. Looking at the weekly I wish I could be more optomistic but the daily looks a little better to me than the weekly with that last candle being a doji you just might get a turnaround this coming week. These news articles bring out the anxiety in traders and it could cause a bigger drop from here but there's nothing you can do between now and Monday so gather your thoughts and be prepared to act. Hope it goes in your direction.

[New-born baby]

Amln

I actually liked it long.

Let's look at this devil. Here's the daily for the last 90 days:


Look at those support levels. The first one is weak as a kitten. The second one is stronger, but the real support comes down (~choke here~) around $16.

If $21.30 doesn't hold, no question in my mind, she's falling to $20. Then she'll bounce and hit her head on the $21.30 mark, and fall down again with the old shoulder~head~shoulder thing. That virtually assures a $16 or lower stock.

One way to handle it is to sell it short. If it is going to fall, ride her down. Monday will tell us alot. $21.30 has got to hold--

(Statements like that last one evince sermons on "hope"--the investors enemy when a stock is falling. Watch out!)

Now here's the weekly:

You're right: it doesn't look as good as the daily.
Now compare shooters:

Ugh!

[New-born baby]

My financial advisor

If I had a financial advisor showing me a chart of AMLN and telling me to buy it now, here's what he'd look like.

No, I'm not down on the stock. I am realistically appraising it. You know, with Vulcan self-control.

[skiracer]

In that case I'm positive that you're going to be alright regardless of what happens. It's only money an only one trade.

[jiesen]

Having said that, I bought the stock for the earnings growth. Jiesen says he'll eat his hat if it goes to zero. Easy for him to say; he doesn't even own one. So the earnings need to grow. And then you post saying they are not going to grow. DOH! What I really need is Jim Cramer to pump this thing so I can dump my shares. Where is that guy when you NEED him?

Oh yeah, if you like AMLN, I hope it is SHORT. For your sake.

Um, there was nothing in Ski's post saying AMLN would not grow their revenue. It's practically impossible for them NOT to grow revenue with 2 new drugs adding sales at 40% growth per WEEK right now. Yes, currently sales are low (only $1-$2M per month) but in a few months at the current prescription growth rate you'll see $10-$20M in monthly sales. Check the June earnings, then check again when September's numbers come out, and tell me then that earnings haven't grown. I'll eat your hat.

Also, don't freak out when a stock you buy drops 7% the first week. People writing stories like the one Ski posted (AMLN stock won't go up if the revenue estimates are lowered) are playing into such fears, and will buy your AMLN stock from you exactly when you sell it at $19.5. If you can't overcome this fear, or you don't know enough to buy a stock with the confidence that you've made a good decision, then don't buy it- or sell it if you've already made that mistake, rather than waiting for the price to drop to the point where you'll make a worse mistake and sell for the maximum loss you can take.

[skiracer]

I was just passing on an article that came across the Briefing.com newswire and wasn't in any way giving a prognosis or opinion of what the earnings or trend of AMLN were going to be. As I said in an earlier post I liked the stock and kind of still do. I said I would be keeping a close eye on it from this point because deep down I think the stock will present an opportunity at these lower prices for a trade. I always try to catch theses particular situations when the stock in question has dropped to a low point where the sharks realize that the opportunity and setup merits a position because of the cheap price. AMLN seems to be approaching that area in price where it might be a worthwhile trade setup. That's my reasoning behind this dialogue.

Your specific strategys and discipline are what drives exit strategys. Since I am basically a short term swing trader it's important to me to have a pre-determined exit strategy. Mine is 7%. I very seldom violate that discipline and when I do it seems I always end up regretting it. In the case of AMLN I was speaking in general terms to New Born as I saw his position. There wasn't any suggestion of exiting the position only stating the obvious % drop from his entry in the trade. Otherwise I agree with all the points you made in your post. Knowing your own limitations and strategys is the key to all of this an I'm certain New Born knows his. Getting caught in a falling position because of a news article some nit-witted so called analyst puts on the newswire can happen to anyone holding any stock at any moment. ELN is a prime example. It's a shame but it does happen to many times. Your right though about people grabbing those shares that anxious traders sell off because they don't know their limitations or have a discipline. That's why I always push knowing that concept. Containing your emotions in following those strategys and disciplines, regardless of what they are, is usually most traders weak spot an is what most of us should consider in our trading.

[skiracer]

Daily and weekly charts giving possible different signals. That last candle on the top chart, daily, could suggest reversal of drop. Shrinking volume also suggests sellers losing strength and battle.
Weekly chart, bottom, last candle gravestone doji suggests possible reversal of the uptrend but volume still hanging in there.

Perplexing situation between the two charts and the news release on the Byetta drug maybe already being factored into earnings.
These news releases often do temporary damage only and provide a lower entry as a result of it. Before that the uptrend was looking pretty good and strong. I'm going to use it in my picks in the game this week and will be looking for a possible entry if it drops much lower. My own feelings are that it is a good stock and will provide more uptrend once this news wears off.

[B.J]

Thanks for the charts/analysis Ski. Very good...

Like any candlestick formation, upcoming confirmation is needed. You point out conflicting daily/weekly, so that probably indicates that the "moment of truth" is imminent.

My personal opinion: If the current level of about 21.5-22 fails, it should see strong support at about 20. I only have a less than half position at 22, so if I complete it at 20, I'll have an average purchase of 20 and change. My stop would then be under 20 because it gets REAL THIN then.

[New-born baby]

Average Down

I am not going to average down on this one. Certainly not at $20. $16 is in the realm of possibility. My plan is to just hold on until she turns profitable for me. That's right: no stops.

[New-born baby]

Calling Dr. Ski; Calling Dr. SKI

Hey, SKI

What's the prognosis on BPT? We have a dividend paying stock here, to the tune of $6.13 per year. Currently priced at $71.60 or so. I'd like to know what the Dr. says.

[Runner]

I like AMLN off 38 fib line. It could even run up from current price. friday was the first day the price dropped below the bull line on the daily chart.

[New-born baby]

$20

I like AMLN off 38 fib line. It could even run up from current price. friday was the first day the price dropped below the bull line on the daily chart.

Runner,
That 38 fib is $20, which is where I think it is headed once it breaks the $21.30 mark. What's your target for AMLN from here? From $20?