Skiracer's stock slopes

[riverbabe]

Ski, I was looking at both of your wave 4s and they looked too low to me. Also, your first wave 3 looked too short. I couldn't remember the "rules" so looked some up. FWIW

"Elliott waves, both impulsive and corrective, adhere to specific Fibonacci proportions, as illustrated in Figure 2-2. For example, common objectives for wave 3 are 1.618 and 2.618 multiples of wave 1. In corrections, wave 2 typically ends near the .618 retracement of wave 1, and wave 4 often tests the .382 retracement of wave 3.




Figure 2-2

"...Elliott wave rules."

Rule 1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.

Rule 3: Out of the three impulse waves - 1, 3 and 5 - wave 3 can never be the shortest."

I see a different count from yours. (Everybody will have their own different count, as you know.) Will try to post it.

[riverbabe]

[skiracer]

Ski, I was looking at both of your wave 4s and they looked too low to me. Also, your first wave 3 looked too short. I couldn't remember the "rules" so looked some up. FWIW

"Elliott waves, both impulsive and corrective, adhere to specific Fibonacci proportions, as illustrated in Figure 2-2. For example, common objectives for wave 3 are 1.618 and 2.618 multiples of wave 1. In corrections, wave 2 typically ends near the .618 retracement of wave 1, and wave 4 often tests the .382 retracement of wave 3.




Figure 2-2

"...Elliott wave rules."

Rule 1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.

Rule 3: Out of the three impulse waves - 1, 3 and 5 - wave 3 can never be the shortest."

I see a different count from yours. (Everybody will have their own different count, as you know.) Will try to post it.

river,
you're absolutely right with your percentages and i know them explicitly but if you waited for all the stars to be in perfect alignment you would never get a count. i can only speak for myself and how i see it and use it. like you stated everyone will see it and interpret it differently. i try to keep it simple. but i would be interested in seeing how you would call it so please post a chart with your interpretation. i think spike used the terminology, "fuzzy logic" where you stretch the concept to what seems more plausible for yourself.

[riverbabe]

see post before your latest one, sweet one. The abc is iffy. Could be an "a."

[skiracer]

see post before your latest one, sweet one. The abc is iffy. Could be an "a."

I saw that when i was looking at it initially and it was one of the reasons i went with what i posted. but the interaction is always good river and seeing another traders interpretation is also good. like i said i try to keep it as simple as i can.

[riverbabe]

I saw that when i was looking at it initially and it was one of the reasons i went with what i posted. but the interaction is always good river and seeing another traders interpretation is also good. like i said i try to keep it as simple as i can.

You know I greatly admire your interpretations.

[wooish]

Damn what a day for the shorts. Congrats to the longs.

[skiracer]

Damn what a day for the shorts. Congrats to the longs.

i thought we could get a bounce today off the weekly and it is a nice bounce but the SPX needs to get back to around it's 20 ema at 1116 and hold that. it needs a good follow thru day tomorrow. today was the first day in a week that it has held it's intraday gains thru the close. i hate fridays during the summer months because all the thiefs like to take their money out and run off to wherever they spend their weekends.

[TheRelapse]

I agree, there seems to be a very high likelihood that we will have a triple digit down day tomorrow.

[skiracer]

I agree, there seems to be a very high likelihood that we will have a triple digit down day tomorrow.

I'm praying that we don't. about mid-afternoon today it looked like it was going to try to give it some part or all of it back like it did everyday this week but there must have been some underlying strength there. the euro was up and good reports coming out of china propped it up today. it just seems that on fridays in the summertime it almost always pulls back on friday. nothing to do with the strength of the market just big institutional and hedge fund money taking their money out in case something political or economical happens over the weekend. i'm not going to even try to guess what tomorrow will bring but today was a strong show of strength and hopefully some of it will carry over thru tomorrow. alot of buying today could prompt alot of profit taking tomorrow. I'm long NYB calls and that is the only thing i have open. i wouldnt be buying anything tomorrow long or short.

[riverbabe]

I'm praying that we don't. about mid-afternoon today it looked like it was going to try to give it some part or all of it back like it did everyday this week but there must have been some underlying strength there. the euro was up and good reports coming out of china propped it up today. it just seems that on fridays in the summertime it almost always pulls back on friday. nothing to do with the strength of the market just big institutional and hedge fund money taking their money out in case something political or economical happens over the weekend. i'm not going to even try to guess what tomorrow will bring but today was a strong show of strength and hopefully some of it will carry over thru tomorrow. alot of buying today could prompt alot of profit taking tomorrow. I'm long NYB calls and that is the only thing i have open. i wouldnt be buying anything tomorrow long or short.

I agree with Ski (see my other post to you). Take your PRTH profits and run. Buy more on any downturn.

[wooish]

GS was buying heavily in premarket today so I bet today's rally was quite possibly orchestrated. I would guess most of the volume today was due to shorts covering and during late afternoon when it looks like it was about to give the gains back, something mysteriously propped it back up. Tomorrow should be interesting, will see if it can go over 20MA and then 200MA.

[skiracer]

for those of you who might not understand or don't know how to compute "fibonacci retracements" manually here are the formulas and the website address for additional info.
you would have to go to the website to view the chart example that the numbers used below were taken from.

How to calculate Fibonacci retracement and extension levels:

In the example above we are in the uptrend. Lowest swing — point A — is 120.75;
highest swing — point B — 121.44.
To calculate retracement levels and enter Long at some point C we do next:
Calculations for Uptrend and Buy order:
B — A = ?
121.44 — 120.75 = 0.69
0.382 (38.2%) retracement = 121.44 — 0.69 x 0.382 = 121.18
0.500 (50.0%) retracement = 121.44 — 0.69 x 0.500 = 121.09
0.618 (61.8%) retracement = 121.44 — 0.69 x 0.618 = 121.01
Fibonacci retracement levels formula for an uptrend:
C = B — (B — A) x N%
Now we need to calculate extension levels:
0.618 (61.8% ) extension = 121.44 + 0.69 x 0.618 = 121.87
1.000 (100.0%) extension = 121.44 + 0.69 x 1.000 = 122.13
1.382 (138.2%) extension = 121.44 + 0.69 x 1.382 = 122.39
1.618 (161.8%) extension = 121.44 + 0.69 x 1.618 = 122.56
Fibonacci extension levels formula for an uptrend:
D = B + (B — A) x N%

Our next example is downtrend.

Highest swing — point A — is 158.20; lowest swing — point B — is 156.44.
Calculations for downtrend and Sell order:
A — B = ?
158.20 — 156.44 = 1.76
Because of the downtrend we need to add to the lowest point B to find retracement.
0.382 (38.2%) retracement = 156.44 + 1.76 x 0.382 = 157.53
0.500 (50.0%) retracement = 156.44 + 1.76 x 0.500 = 157.32
0.618 (61.8%) retracement = 156.44 + 1.76 x 0.618 = 157.11
Fibonacci retracement levels formula for downtrend:
C = B + (A — B) x N%
Now let's find Fibonacci extension levels (downtrend):
0.618 (61.8%) extension = 156.44 — 1.76 x 0.618 = 155.35
1.000 (100%) extension = 156.44 — 1.76 x 1.000 = 154.68
1.382 (138.2%) extension = 156.44 — 1.76 x 1.382 = 154.01
1.618 (161.8%) extension = 156.44 — 1.76 x 1.618 = 153.59
Fibonacci extension levels formula for downtrend: D = B — (A — B) x N% To help calculate Fibonacci levels we have also made a free tool for Forex traders — Free Fibonacci Calculator — available for downloading.

http://www.forexfibonacci.com/calculate_fibonacci_levels/04/

[riverbabe]

Ski, what do you think about yesterday's $SPX action? Looked toppy to me. Ended on the low of the intraday and stayed under the 200. I know you don't believe in his institutional charts, but Marty Chenard puts the institutions in decreased distribution and thinks we're due for a very short term bounce to a right shoulder. I'm not so sure it's going up much more, if at all, even though the futures are pointing up this morning. Very interested in what you think here.

[skiracer]

Ski, what do you think about yesterday's $SPX action? Looked toppy to me. Ended on the low of the intraday and stayed under the 200. I know you don't believe in his institutional charts, but Marty Chenard puts the institutions in decreased distribution and thinks we're due for a very short term bounce to a right shoulder. I'm not so sure it's going up much more, if at all, even though the futures are pointing up this morning. Very interested in what you think here.

I think it moves up from here. not a short term bounce but up over 1100 on the SPX. I'm actually bullish now. I thought yesterday was developing into a nice day and then some news about Greece's debt and credit rating being cut to about an hour before the close and the markets tank. I dont know why they do that but it was just a reaction to the news and not substantial fundamentals.