Skiracer's stock slopes

[mrmarket]

Doubt it happens tomorrow:

catalyst not there

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares extended their gains on Monday, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will deliver new measures to underpin their fragile economies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> edged up 0.5 percent, after climbing 2.2 percent on Friday for its biggest daily rise in a month.
Japan's Nikkei stock average opened up 1.1 percent, after ending up nearly 1.5 percent on Friday, also its biggest daily gain in a month. (.T)
The turnaround in market sentiment from recent heavy selling was triggered last week when ECB President Mario Draghi pledged he would do whatever it takes to safeguard the single currency.
His comments raised hopes the ECB, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday, will act to ease borrowing strains for Spain and other highly indebted countries facing surging yields that threaten to derail fiscal restructuring efforts.
Investors held their risk appetite, pushing the Australian dollar as high as $1.0498 in early Asian trade on Monday. The dollar index (.DXY), measured against a basket of major currencies, hovered near Friday's three-week low.
But the euro traded down 0.3 percent at $1.2297, slipping from a three-week high of $1.2390 touched on Friday. It slid to a two-year low around $1.2042 last week before Draghi's comments.
Uncertainty persisted in Europe about specific action, despite authorities speaking of the urgency to tackle Spain's fiscal woes which drove its 10-year government debt yield to euro-era highs of 7.78 percent last week, while Greece continued with its battle to convince creditors of its debt-cutting plans.
Jeff Sica, chief investment officer of Sica Wealth Management, was skeptical the optimism would be sustained.
"The problem being that central bankers do not have the ability to do 'whatever it takes' to save the euro. They only have the ability to undermine their credibility by making promises they cannot keep," he said, adding that the euro's recent strength has been based on short covering and its short term appreciation would be temporary.
The U.S. central bank also holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with speculation rising the Fed might do more to bolster recovery, after data showed U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 1.5 percent annual rate, the weakest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2011.
"It (the GDP) contained enough weakness to support the Fed's commitment to an exceptionally long period of nearly zero overnight interest rates," said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
"But the Fed's real catalyst comes from the most recent data in July, for Q3, which suggests a truly weaker story with greater risks of the U.S. drifting towards growth rates of 0.5 percent and nearly recessionary conditions in Q1 2013," he said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will travel to Germany to meet with his German counterpart and ECB head Draghi on Monday.
Euro zone leaders will cooperate with the ECB to show their commitment to the stability of the euro, and would in the next few days decide on measures to tackle surging Spanish bond yields, Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker said in interviews with European newspapers.
On Greece, European policymakers are working on options that may include having the ECB and national central banks take huge losses on the value of their bond holdings, officials said. Greek political leaders have agreed on most of the austerity measures demanded by its creditors, a source close to the talks said on Sunday.
Speculators cut their bets for the euro's further decline while also reducing their bets in favor of the U.S. dollar to the lowest in 2-1/2 months in the latest week to July 24, data showed on Friday. Their yen net longs have more than doubled while Australian dollar long jumped.

[peanuts]

DSteckler last discussed the Hindenburg omen in 2006:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=49228&postcount=1248

The accompanying article isn't too bad, but of course dated and you have to look back at what was happening at the time and then shortly thereafter:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/4937/an-unconfirmed-hindenburg-omen-occurred-friday-april-7th-2006

(ps. sorry for the links, Karel... I'm baaaaad to the bone)

[mimo_100]

Peanuts,

Thanks for your input. Interesting reading, but I am still skeptical of the conditions used to generate the signal.

In the safehaven.com link, the article was concerning An Unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen Occurring on Friday, April 7th, 2006.

In the Amateur Investor article, the date of the Omen Signal was April 17, 2006. Just a minor correction. Here is what was written:

Meanwhile the table below gives a more detailed look at each confirmed Hindenburg Omen going back to the mid 1960's. The only events that weren't followed by a significant top were in April of 2006, May of 1971 and October of 1967, however, even these signals were followed by corrections ranging from 8% to 13%.

Signal	Peak	Peak	Low	Low	%	
Date	Date	Price	Date	Price	Correction	
7/24/2012	?	?	?	?	?	
10/18/2007	Oct-07	1576	Mar-09	667	-57.6	Major Top...S&P falls 58%
7/11/2007	Jul-07	1556	Aug-07	1371	-11.9	Precedes Major Top by 3 Months
4/17/2006	May-06	1327	Jun-06	1219	-8.1	Minor Correction
12/6/1999	Dec-99	1476	Feb-00	1325	-10.2	Precedes Major Top by 3 Months...S&P falls 50%
9/24/1987	Sep-87	322	Oct-87	216	-32.9	S&P drops 36% in 9 Weeks
3/23/1972	May-72	111	Jul-72	106	-4.5	Precedes late 1972 Top...S&P falls 48%
5/17/1971	May-71	104	Nov-71	90	-13.5	Minor Correction 
5/26/1969	May-69	106	May-70	69	-34.9	Major Top...S&P falls 35%
10/13/1967	Oct-67	98	Mar-68	88	-10.2	Minor Correction
2/1/1966	Feb-66	94	Oct-66	73	-22.3	Major Top...S&P falls 22%

Here is how author Robert McHugh explains the Omen Signal:

“Another observation is that once you get two solid Hindenburg Omens in a cluster, the probability of a severe decline does not seem to increase as more Omens occur within the cluster. Sometimes a two signal cluster produced a worse decline than a 5, 11, or 17 signal cluster. But what can be said about multiple signal clusters is that the warnings are being given further out in time, keeping us on the alert, extending the risk period. More signals also assures us a greater likelihood of better quality signals, which seems to matter. Multiple signals are telling us things are not getting better, that something continues to remain wrong with the markets.

What does it mean for traders and investors when we get a confirmed Hindenburg Omen?This is really important to understand. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a stock market crash. The odds of a crash based upon the history since 1985 is 26.1 percent. That means the odds we will not have a crash are quite high, at 73.9 percent.However, since a stock market crash is akin to economic death in many circles, you can look at the situation like this. If you were hearing from your doctor that the surgery you are contemplating stands a 26.1 percent of causing your death, that becomes a very high percentage probability - one you likely do not want to take if the surgery is not absolutely necessary. A 26.1 percent probability of a stock market crash is extremely high when you consider that there have been only half a dozen crashes over the past twenty years, and the normal odds of a crash happening randomly are only about one-tenth of one percent. You now also have to factor that the Fed is pumping liquidity to prevent crashes once these signals occur. And now they have hidden M-3 so we cannot even monitor how much liquidity they are supplying to the Plunge Protection Team. So you do not want to go short the farm. You may want to think about taking prudent precautionary action according to your investment advisor given the much higher-than-normal odds of a crash. That may not mean shorting. It may mean increasing cash positions or hitting the sidelines for a while. Or it may mean a carefully constructed shorting strategy developed with your advisor, that limits losses, and invests only the amount which you can afford to lose. Still, it is interesting that even with the heavy liquidity the Fed has been pumping around the time of the past three signals, the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 73.8 percent.”


I thought I would include one persons thoughts on M-3.

Goodbye M3 – What is the Government hiding?

Published March 16, 2006 | By Tim McMahon

I’m surprised we haven’t heard much in the news about this but as of March 23rd 2006 the government will no longer be publishing the M3 money supply data. Most people probably say “Who Cares?” Right?

But you should care! And here’s why:

“The Federal Reserve tracks and publishes the money supply measured three different ways– M1, M2, and M3.�

These three money supply measures track slightly different views of the money supply.

The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited to currency actually in the hands of the public. This includes travelers checks, demand deposits (checking accounts), and other deposits against which checks can be written.

M2 includes all of M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

But that is all small potatoes, M3 includes all of M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada.”

In other words, M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK (called Eurodollars) not to be confused with the Euro which is the standard currency of Europe.
So the question immediately arises why would the FED stop tracking this? The reason they give is that:

1) it will save money
2) That all the money that it tracks is tracked by other indicators.
First of all, since when is the government interested in saving money? I’ve never heard of a government program being cut once it is on the books. There are stories of government offices being created for the purpose of WWII and continuing on for decades even though the employees had absolutely nothing to do!

If they were eliminating M1 they could say the money is included in other indicators because M1 is included in M2 and M3. If they eliminated M2 it would be included in M3 but what is M3 included in?

So, perhaps I’m just suspicious by nature but it begs the question, what are they trying to hide?

Well, if you’ve read any of our other articles you will know that inflation and the money supply are very tightly integrated. Increases in the money supply are the direct cause of inflation. (See Inflation- Cause and effect and Inflation Definition).

With all its efforts at “Tracking Inflation” most everyone agrees that the last thing the Government really wants is for the general public to know how much it is stealing out of your pockets through inflation.

Inflation has been called “the hidden tax” and that is exactly what it is. When the Government “prints” extra money what do you think it does with it? It spends it of course!

What would happen if you started writing checks (creating money) from an account that was empty? You’d end up in jail! But that is exactly what the government is doing when it creates money out of thin air.

Enron isn’t the only one who knows how to cook the books!
For years now in an effort to hide the actual amount of inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (who tracks the inflation rate) has been erasing inflation through a trick called “hedonics”.

Basically they say since a new computer is faster than an old one you get more for your money, so they adjust the price down.

So even though a new computer might cost you $500 they say since it is twice as fast, it is really only costing you $250. But try to explain that to “Best Buy” when you want to pick one up and see how far you get.
They use the same logic for cars and other things. Everyone who studies it knows the Government is fudging the numbers, but it has gotten so bad that now they have to hide the M3 altogether.

Again I ask why? Well, I have a theory.� The U.S. trade deficit is running at an annual rate of about $800 billion. That means we are spending $800 billion more than we are earning in the world markets. Basically, we are sending dollars overseas (primarily to China) and they are sending us stuff.
Well, what are the Chinese doing with all that money we are sending them? Are they buying our stuff? Nope! That would reduce our trade deficit. They are actually saving about 50% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In other words, as a Nation, they save half of what they make or about 1.1 Trillion Dollars a year.

On a nationwide basis (this includes Government, Business and personal) the U.S. only saves 13% of its GDP. But on a personal level the picture is much worse. Chinese households save 30% of what they earn while U.S. households save less than Zero! On average, we actually spend .4% more than we earn every year.�

It is hard to imagine but it is true. So what are the Chinese doing with all that extra money? They can’t just pile it up in their garage (if they had one). So what are they doing with it? Buying back our debt. The Chinese are huge buyers of U.S. Government Treasury securities. �

“One spends money it hasn’t got and the other sells to people who can’t pay.”
Someone said recently that it’s hard to tell who’s crazier. “The one who spends money it hasn’t got or the one who sells to people who can’t pay.”
Basically, by buying U.S. Treasury Notes, the Chinese are loaning us the money to buy their stuff. And the Government is printing the money to do it. So my theory is that in order to hide all the money that is being created and sent to China the government is going to stop tracking M3.

The Smoking Gun

It is no coincidence that the M3 went up an annualized 9.4% in the last three months and an annualized 17.2% in December alone and now the FED wants to stop tracking it!

Why bother tackling a problem of this magnitude when you can just bury the evidence? Who wants to leave a “smoking gun” laying around? A 9.4% increase in money supply should translate into a 9.4% inflation rate (if GDP produces exactly enough to counteract obsolescence).
Even if there is a 1% increase in the supply of goods, that still means that we really have 8.4% inflation rather than the 3.6% the BLS is telling us.
In order for the 3.6% number to be true– we would have to have 5.8% more stuff than last year (9.4% – 3.6% = 5.8%). Do you have 5.8% more stuff than last year? I didn’t think so.

The writing is on the wall. When the Government starts hiding data the problem is big! If this trend continues, inflation is going to come roaring back big time. We will see the late 70′s all over again. The war is Iraq and the Billions in Hurricane damage have to be paid for somehow and the “hidden tax of inflation” is the easy way out.
Now is the time to begin stocking up on inflation hedges.

Tim McMahon, Editor
InflationData.com

[skiracer]

Peanuts,

Thanks for your input. Interesting reading, but I am still skeptical of the conditions used to generate the signal.

In the safehaven.com link, the article was concerning An Unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen Occurring on Friday, April 7th, 2006.

In the Amateur Investor article, the date of the Omen Signal was April 17, 2006. Just a minor correction. Here is what was written:

Meanwhile the table below gives a more detailed look at each confirmed Hindenburg Omen going back to the mid 1960's. The only events that weren't followed by a significant top were in April of 2006, May of 1971 and October of 1967, however, even these signals were followed by corrections ranging from 8% to 13%.

Signal	Peak	Peak	Low	Low	%	
Date	Date	Price	Date	Price	Correction	
7/24/2012	?	?	?	?	?	
10/18/2007	Oct-07	1576	Mar-09	667	-57.6	Major Top...S&P falls 58%
7/11/2007	Jul-07	1556	Aug-07	1371	-11.9	Precedes Major Top by 3 Months
4/17/2006	May-06	1327	Jun-06	1219	-8.1	Minor Correction
12/6/1999	Dec-99	1476	Feb-00	1325	-10.2	Precedes Major Top by 3 Months...S&P falls 50%
9/24/1987	Sep-87	322	Oct-87	216	-32.9	S&P drops 36% in 9 Weeks
3/23/1972	May-72	111	Jul-72	106	-4.5	Precedes late 1972 Top...S&P falls 48%
5/17/1971	May-71	104	Nov-71	90	-13.5	Minor Correction 
5/26/1969	May-69	106	May-70	69	-34.9	Major Top...S&P falls 35%
10/13/1967	Oct-67	98	Mar-68	88	-10.2	Minor Correction
2/1/1966	Feb-66	94	Oct-66	73	-22.3	Major Top...S&P falls 22%

Here is how author Robert McHugh explains the Omen Signal:

“Another observation is that once you get two solid Hindenburg Omens in a cluster, the probability of a severe decline does not seem to increase as more Omens occur within the cluster. Sometimes a two signal cluster produced a worse decline than a 5, 11, or 17 signal cluster. But what can be said about multiple signal clusters is that the warnings are being given further out in time, keeping us on the alert, extending the risk period. More signals also assures us a greater likelihood of better quality signals, which seems to matter. Multiple signals are telling us things are not getting better, that something continues to remain wrong with the markets.

What does it mean for traders and investors when we get a confirmed Hindenburg Omen?This is really important to understand. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a stock market crash. The odds of a crash based upon the history since 1985 is 26.1 percent. That means the odds we will not have a crash are quite high, at 73.9 percent.However, since a stock market crash is akin to economic death in many circles, you can look at the situation like this. If you were hearing from your doctor that the surgery you are contemplating stands a 26.1 percent of causing your death, that becomes a very high percentage probability - one you likely do not want to take if the surgery is not absolutely necessary. A 26.1 percent probability of a stock market crash is extremely high when you consider that there have been only half a dozen crashes over the past twenty years, and the normal odds of a crash happening randomly are only about one-tenth of one percent. You now also have to factor that the Fed is pumping liquidity to prevent crashes once these signals occur. And now they have hidden M-3 so we cannot even monitor how much liquidity they are supplying to the Plunge Protection Team. So you do not want to go short the farm. You may want to think about taking prudent precautionary action according to your investment advisor given the much higher-than-normal odds of a crash. That may not mean shorting. It may mean increasing cash positions or hitting the sidelines for a while. Or it may mean a carefully constructed shorting strategy developed with your advisor, that limits losses, and invests only the amount which you can afford to lose. Still, it is interesting that even with the heavy liquidity the Fed has been pumping around the time of the past three signals, the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 73.8 percent.”


I thought I would include one persons thoughts on M-3.

Goodbye M3 – What is the Government hiding?

Published March 16, 2006 | By Tim McMahon

I’m surprised we haven’t heard much in the news about this but as of March 23rd 2006 the government will no longer be publishing the M3 money supply data. Most people probably say “Who Cares?” Right?

But you should care! And here’s why:

“The Federal Reserve tracks and publishes the money supply measured three different ways– M1, M2, and M3.�

These three money supply measures track slightly different views of the money supply.

The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited to currency actually in the hands of the public. This includes travelers checks, demand deposits (checking accounts), and other deposits against which checks can be written.

M2 includes all of M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

But that is all small potatoes, M3 includes all of M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada.”

In other words, M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK (called Eurodollars) not to be confused with the Euro which is the standard currency of Europe.
So the question immediately arises why would the FED stop tracking this? The reason they give is that:

1) it will save money
2) That all the money that it tracks is tracked by other indicators.
First of all, since when is the government interested in saving money? I’ve never heard of a government program being cut once it is on the books. There are stories of government offices being created for the purpose of WWII and continuing on for decades even though the employees had absolutely nothing to do!

If they were eliminating M1 they could say the money is included in other indicators because M1 is included in M2 and M3. If they eliminated M2 it would be included in M3 but what is M3 included in?

So, perhaps I’m just suspicious by nature but it begs the question, what are they trying to hide?

Well, if you’ve read any of our other articles you will know that inflation and the money supply are very tightly integrated. Increases in the money supply are the direct cause of inflation. (See Inflation- Cause and effect and Inflation Definition).

With all its efforts at “Tracking Inflation” most everyone agrees that the last thing the Government really wants is for the general public to know how much it is stealing out of your pockets through inflation.

Inflation has been called “the hidden tax” and that is exactly what it is. When the Government “prints” extra money what do you think it does with it? It spends it of course!

What would happen if you started writing checks (creating money) from an account that was empty? You’d end up in jail! But that is exactly what the government is doing when it creates money out of thin air.

Enron isn’t the only one who knows how to cook the books!
For years now in an effort to hide the actual amount of inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (who tracks the inflation rate) has been erasing inflation through a trick called “hedonics”.

Basically they say since a new computer is faster than an old one you get more for your money, so they adjust the price down.

So even though a new computer might cost you $500 they say since it is twice as fast, it is really only costing you $250. But try to explain that to “Best Buy” when you want to pick one up and see how far you get.
They use the same logic for cars and other things. Everyone who studies it knows the Government is fudging the numbers, but it has gotten so bad that now they have to hide the M3 altogether.

Again I ask why? Well, I have a theory.� The U.S. trade deficit is running at an annual rate of about $800 billion. That means we are spending $800 billion more than we are earning in the world markets. Basically, we are sending dollars overseas (primarily to China) and they are sending us stuff.
Well, what are the Chinese doing with all that money we are sending them? Are they buying our stuff? Nope! That would reduce our trade deficit. They are actually saving about 50% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In other words, as a Nation, they save half of what they make or about 1.1 Trillion Dollars a year.

On a nationwide basis (this includes Government, Business and personal) the U.S. only saves 13% of its GDP. But on a personal level the picture is much worse. Chinese households save 30% of what they earn while U.S. households save less than Zero! On average, we actually spend .4% more than we earn every year.�

It is hard to imagine but it is true. So what are the Chinese doing with all that extra money? They can’t just pile it up in their garage (if they had one). So what are they doing with it? Buying back our debt. The Chinese are huge buyers of U.S. Government Treasury securities. �

“One spends money it hasn’t got and the other sells to people who can’t pay.”
Someone said recently that it’s hard to tell who’s crazier. “The one who spends money it hasn’t got or the one who sells to people who can’t pay.”
Basically, by buying U.S. Treasury Notes, the Chinese are loaning us the money to buy their stuff. And the Government is printing the money to do it. So my theory is that in order to hide all the money that is being created and sent to China the government is going to stop tracking M3.

The Smoking Gun

It is no coincidence that the M3 went up an annualized 9.4% in the last three months and an annualized 17.2% in December alone and now the FED wants to stop tracking it!

Why bother tackling a problem of this magnitude when you can just bury the evidence? Who wants to leave a “smoking gun” laying around? A 9.4% increase in money supply should translate into a 9.4% inflation rate (if GDP produces exactly enough to counteract obsolescence).
Even if there is a 1% increase in the supply of goods, that still means that we really have 8.4% inflation rather than the 3.6% the BLS is telling us.
In order for the 3.6% number to be true– we would have to have 5.8% more stuff than last year (9.4% – 3.6% = 5.8%). Do you have 5.8% more stuff than last year? I didn’t think so.

The writing is on the wall. When the Government starts hiding data the problem is big! If this trend continues, inflation is going to come roaring back big time. We will see the late 70′s all over again. The war is Iraq and the Billions in Hurricane damage have to be paid for somehow and the “hidden tax of inflation” is the easy way out.
Now is the time to begin stocking up on inflation hedges.

Tim McMahon, Editor
InflationData.com

interesting analogy Mimo.

[peanuts]

Thanks for the info, Mimo.

It really interests me how much influence the decisions of the FED correlate with the omen.

[mimo_100]

It is so depressing knowing that our elected officials lie to us daily, and now they are fudging reports. Currently, they are talking about changing the way Social Security COLA's are computed, and - you guessed it - the formula will reduce COLA payments.

The only chance we have is if the voters control the purse strings - WE HAVE TO TAKE OVER THE BUDGETS - run the government like we run our households - make sure we provide for those born with problems out side of their control, take care of widows and orphans, and especially our wounded warriors.

Example of a stupid new policy - tax everyone whose taxable income exceeds $250,000 when the Bush cuts expire at the end of the year. If this passes, in a few years it will be obsolete due to inflation. If you want to tax, it is better to tax everyone whose taxable income EXCEEDS X % of the average taxable income - this would automatically adjust for changes. These people do not think.

Here in Ohio, the voters passed a CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT to have gambling casinos. I begged people to vote no - not because I was against gambling, but because the law was not well-written. Now, guess what. Every time they want to tweak the law, it requires another constitutional amendment to change it. It now costs a fortune to change the law.

[riverbabe]

liquidity

Since M3 disappeared in 2006, Marty Chenard has been measuring it. As of close yesterday: "Liquidity Inflows had a slight down tick in Mid-Quadrant 2 Expansion territory."
(paid subscriber to stocktiming.com)

[mimo_100]

Since M3 disappeared in 2006, Marty Chenard has been measuring it. As of close yesterday: "Liquidity Inflows had a slight down tick in Mid-Quadrant 2 Expansion territory."
(paid subscriber to stocktiming.com)

Thanks for jumping into the discussion, River! Putting Marty Chenard's statement into English, here is what I believe he is saying. There are 2 expansion quadrants, and 2 contraction quadrants. The contraction's are from 0-25% LIQUIDITY and from 25-50% liquidity. The expansion's run from 50-75% and 75-100%. Mid quadrant 2 is halfway between 75-100% or around 87%. Lots of liquidity.

Here is a link on liquidity. See the first chart. Dated but useful.

http://www.liquidity.com/Docs/Understanding_Liquidity.pdf

[riverbabe]

Thanks for jumping into the discussion, River! Putting Marty Chenard's statement into English, here is what I believe he is saying. There are 2 expansion quadrants, and 2 contraction quadrants. The contraction's are from 0-25% LIQUIDITY and from 25-50% liquidity. The expansion's run from 50-75% and 75-100%. Mid quadrant 2 is halfway between 75-100% or around 87%. Lots of liquidity.

Here is a link on liquidity. See the first chart. Dated but useful.

http://www.liquidity.com/Docs/Unders..._Liquidity.pdf

Very nice Mimo! This is a link to Marty's explanation (free Karel):

http://www.stocktiming.com/Stock_Investing_Course/best-Liquidity-Levels.html

[mimo_100]

Very nice Mimo! This is a link to Marty's explanation (free Karel):

http://www.stocktiming.com/Stock_Inv...ty-Levels.html

Barb,

Thanks for the link to his explanation. He numbers his quadrants 1 thru 4 from top to bottom - I numbered mine 1 and 2, for expansion and contraction respectively, starting from the 50% line.

The chart in the link is from December 2011. Using his quadrant numbering system and your earlier post, we are currently in a "...slight down tick in Mid-Quadrant 2 Expansion territory." I interpret this to be above the 50% liquidity black line, at approximately 62-63 %.

He says "The big up trend that many investors want to see, needs to have Inflowing Liquidity in Expansion territory, and in Quadrant 1."

We are definitely not there, at least in his opinion.

Good exchange of information everyone.

[skiracer]

Weakfish are in the Barnegat Bay now. It's a great time to be fishing for them. And either the Manasquan or Barnegat Inlets are great on any incoming tides using bucktail jigs with a piece of porkrind on the hook, any color bucktail will do but I like the white best. If you or a friend has a boat, center console is best, the flats out by Tices Shoals is great fishing right now. either at dusk or just before dusk early in the morning as close to high tide as you can. They are the best eating fish.

[billyjoe]

Ski, I can screen for a great list of potential stock buys but don't quite know the proper steps to pick a buy from the list. I know you look closely at the 20DMA. Could you share a few of the other factors you check off to make a selection, volume, market trends etc. Thanks


---------------billy

[noshadyldy]

DUST to dust?

Hi everyone! It's been a long time.

Question: I recently got singed from this bear 3x gold holding of mine. What do you think? Time to go long on the precious metals or not?

Margie

[mrmarket]

Hi everyone! It's been a long time.

Question: I recently got singed from this bear 3x gold holding of mine. What do you think? Time to go long on the precious metals or not?

Margie

It's a tug of war...the only way out of this mess is to inflate, which will be bullish for gold but there's a lot or resistance to inflation...so....

[jiesen]

wow, welcome back noshady! it's sure been awhile!

As far as getting back into a gold position, my opinion is that now's probably a good time for it- we'll likely see some pretty serious inflation in the coming years. I like CEF for the exposure to both silver and gold.