Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

Here are a few images of a weekly report I get from Morpheus Trading Group. It's their weekly sector ETF report an is quite informative especially if you dabble in trading ETF's. Otherwise the way the sectors are trending can also give you a good look at where the strengths lie.

I had to upload it in 5 parts so each section as numbered follows the previous one to see the complete report. Just realized there is a 6th part but couldn't be included in this post because of limit of 5 attachments per post so see next post please.

[skiracer]

Here's the 6th part. Is there a way of getting this whole report into one copy and post? If anyone knows please clue me into it. Thanks.

[skiracer]

Not sure what I did there. Anyone know?

[skiracer]

Got stopped out of IPXL yesterday at 17.50 for a .50 gain. To much BS going on with the stock regarding earnings reporting and a couple of lawsuits. It's down farther today and I'll be looking for a re-entry point somewhere after the markets regain some assemblence of strength and IPXL gets a few things straightened out. The cheaper the better at this point.

Bailed on RDWR this morning at 25.45. Still like the stock but the market is weak with no backbone right now and I wanted to stop it before it gets worse. Looking to re-enter at a much cheaper price when it finds a bottom. Was in at an average of 26.07 on the 2000 shares so it becomes a .67 loss on the 2000 shares. The market is killing everything today. Always remember that todays leaders and strong stocks will be the first to rebound if and when that takes place but right now it's in the crapper and cash is probably the best avenue to be on.

KOMG has consolidated a bit from it's recent highs and will be presenting a great opportunity for entry now once it too finds a bottom.

I'm still in the position on HTRN. It's showing nice strength in light of the market today an right now is up a few cents on the day.

















Here's what Murphy's got to say today.

[skiracer]

Zack's highlighted KOMG as one of the stocks on the highly rated #1 list. The company has just raised guidance another .08 again today over their latest guidance of 1 month ago. Today's pullback was part of the big market drop today an is presenting us with a big opportunity here for another chance of entry at a lower price. The markets and stocks are nearing an oversold condition and there will be a pop of some sorts soon as a result of that oversold condition. The stronger stocks will be the first to regain their consolidations on that first pop. Check out this chart. Just be sure of how the markets will be trending that day as this stock will definitely be regaining any lost ground and will be a great setup for a day or swing trade of a few days. 24/25 range is plausible over the short term.

[Runner]

[skiracer]

I'm glad it has consolidated some and will be watching it closely for an entry today as low as I can get it. Would love to see it drop down to the 21.50 area. Be patient if you're considering a play in anything at the present. Who knows what this market has in mind right now. Glad you liked the pick. Has great fundamentals right now also.

[Runner]

Caution is a wise thing in this current market. Remember many get caught in a bounce off the opening bell, but the bear likes to pull the rug out as the day moves on… Currently this market is at a major fork in the road and I’m still favoring day trading at this time.. Remember we don’t need to trade every day.

[Runner]

[Runner]

[skiracer]

Was looking for a further drop in Komg to under 22 in the am but it surprised me an opened a bit higher than the previous days close. Once it started to move up I took a position at 22.25 and thought it looked like it wanted to go off but the markets are holding almost everything back and it never really took off. Nice gain though to close at 22.86. I'm going to watch it this morning an maybe set a stop around 22.60 to insure some profits. I hate Fridays because most of the momo and swing guys usually take any profits out over the weekend an it makes it hard to sustain your gains. That's why I'm going to keep a short rein on KOMG today an if it drops below 22.60/.65 range I'm going to take the profits and re-enter on Monday.

Still holding HTRN. They are supposed to report April 3 an I believe from what I've been reading they are coming in above guidance. It's been trading in a narrow range between 10.30 and 10.75 over the last week or so. It seems to drop to around 10.40 in the am and then recoup back to the 10.70/.75 range near the close. I like the stock an it has been holding up close to my 10.80 entry point. 10.04 is my 7% point an immediate exit if it goes that way.

I think the markets are getting close to being a little oversold and we could get a bounce here shortly. I'm looking to the SMH for a quick swing trade on a bounce in the tech sector which has been in the crapper of late. Probably won't come today because of the weekend but Monday or Tuesday of next week looks good. Can only trade what you see and not what you think.

[skiracer]

There's a good possibility that we might get a positive bounce this coming week. Here's a chart of the S&P 500 (SPDR) which lends a little support to that.

I get stopped out of IPXL an it goes up .75 the next day. I still like the stock because of the number of generic drug apps. in it's pipeline, that large insider buy of 3.5 million shares, an drugs and medical issues are always going to be in demand with an aging society. Maybe I should have been in it for the long term instead of a short term play. What's good about all of this is that with the online brokerage you can get in an out in a matter of seconds if you wish and can re-enter any position if you see a momentum change. I'll be keeping a close eye on it and it remains on my watchlist of prospective plays for either a day or swing trade.

KOMG is a prime example of what these stocks will do regardless of their fundamental strengths. Drop one day and take off the next. That's why I feel that you have to be extremely flexible in your strategys and ready to go in any direction if you feel the indicators are in place for that direction. I'll be setting a stop on Monday at 23 which will guarantee a gain of .80 on my 1000 shares. This is how I play it an sometimes I think it is a matter of luck on getting stopped out or not and participating in a bigger move up or down. I live with my decisions and strategys an you can always re-enter if you feel the setup is still strong and merits it.

Here are a few other that I have been watching and waiting to setup.
ADBE - I missed this one after their earnings realease but they all usually consolidate and pullback some after that initial breakout. It has exhibited huge strength on the earnings report an should become one of the leaders if the markets turn up some. I'm waiting for it to pullback to the 65.50/66 range for a long side swing trade.
JBL - Another breakout Friday on hugh volume. Any consolidation near 27 would be a good entry for the long side swing trade.

AAPL - I keep waiting for it to breakdown an I still feel it will. I would short it on the next lower low below 41/41.50 range.

AMTD - If the markets turn up with a short term bounce this coming week AMTD could be a nice day or short term swing trade setup. It looks like it is forming a little double bottom but the right side bottom hasn't really bottomed out yet. It the right side can get below the left side low there is a distinct possibility it would turn and move back up the right side of the double bottom. It would be a nice entry to catch it for a move from 10.25/10.50 range to 11.50/12 area. There are a few variables which have to fall into place but it's worth watching.

RDWR - This stock has disappointed me in that it turned out to be a losing trade for me. -.67 on the position on my exit the other day and then it turns and goes back up .29 to close above my exit price. I still like the stock to do as I felt it would and come out of the handle of the double bottom it has been forming on lower volume days. The problem with these lower volume stocks is that it doesn't take much to move them one direction or another. MSN Money has a stock rating of 10 on RDWR. I'm keeping a close watch on it this week and would take a position if the markets give us a bounce an it follows the bounce. My opinion is that the good ones and leaders always tend to gravitate back to their recent highs and higher if nothing has changed with their fundamentals.

I have to mention this in respect to how I trade and play this game. I'm in to making money, gains, whatever you want to call it and to stopping my losses as early as I can. I have my own specifics on these an along with those specifics are my gut feelings which ofter override the specific ones prompting me to exit a position before it reaches a specific loss point of 7% which is mine. Sometimes this causes me to lose some profits as these fickle instruments we are dealing with turn back up on you.

Preserving capital and making gains are my two priorities. The next single most important part of my strategy are detachment or emotional detachment. Once the position is over that's it except for review and learning from looking back at the trade. My feelings are that there are going to be a continuing flow of setup an opportunities coming with each new day and being ready and flexible to operate within those parameters is my prime objective aside from profit, good money management, and capital preservation.

[Runner]

Skiracer, very interesting thread you have here. Your strategy makes sense to me. Flexibility is important to help stay on the right side of the trade along with proper money management. Since the market is doing so awesome my expectancy levels have decreased. I’ll look for stocks that have been oscillating between the 20-80 lines on the sto. I like to see this occur about 2 times and then I’ll buy the 3rd. Once it pops back down under 80 I’m gone. I have not yet flipped the stock and shorted it back to the 20 line, but I’ve noticed how this would have proven successful on stocks running this range, also not to mention the profit increase. In this kind of market I’ve learned greed can cause your profits to evaporate quickly. I feel as long as I sell into strength I’ll be fine with even a .50-.75 gain… Even on these pop and drops I’ll set a stop at break even just incase.

[skiracer]

Runner,
Recently I've become more interested in holding onto the gains and keeping the money into productive positions to the point that a 1/2 or 3/4 point gain bothers the hell out of me if I have it in hand and then watch the stock drop and the gain with it. Flexibility and the ability to get in an out with the rising and falling tides are more the norm with me lately. As I said if I set a close stop and get stopped out with a smaller net gain but at least hold onto a good portion of it then I would rather do that over an over and build a larger capital base that way for the time being under these market conditions.

You mentioned taking the gain and immediately taking a short position in the same stock if it has turned down. I've done that on occassions when I'm in the office an at the screens all day. It's really no trouble at all with an online brokerage as it takes only seconds to do it an, I haven't done this yet, but with Options Express you can preprogram a set of trades where one event triggers another. It can get complicated but is feasible if your broker handles those type of transactions.

I wanted to mention that I also use the fast and slow stockastic indicators on a daily basis. They are a good signal indicator for intraday setups. I think that being methodical and less greedy is a great attribute to making money in trading. There is no reason that with all the opportunities that present themselves any individual couldn't keep doing it over an over again and protecting their capital at the same time as long as they keep their focus on what they are doing an how they want to do it. Interesting dialogue. Good luck.

[skiracer]

Here's a brief update on the two positions I am presently holding and a few stocks that I am looking at an would enter if they consoldiate some to meet my target entry points.

HTRN: Made a decent move yesterday of .40 on twice normal volume. Hopefully it's starting to wake up. Earnings report coming on 4/3. Up on larger volume is always nicer than just up although I never kick being up out of bed even on lower volume. Nice day Wed. for HTRN in a crappy market.

KOMG: Set a stop at 23 on Tuesday am an immediately got stopped out right after the open. The markets are ruining most long plays and KOMG is on that list. I'm still high on the stock and if it drops anywhere below the 22.25 range I'll be looking to enter it again as cheap as I can get it. No change fundamentally with the stock. .75 gain on the trade. If it gets to my target entry today I'll do it again.

ADBE: These last two days will provide a great opportunity to take a position in ADBE on some consolidation of it's recent gains. Another crappy day an if it gets back under 65 or lower an I would take a postion at the cheapest point I can get once it crosses back under 65.

JBL: What a beautiful daily chart. Nice example of cup and handle on lower volume and then the breakout. Consolidatings some of the breakout gain due mostly to the market yesterday but that is to our advantage. Anywhere under 27.50 to 26 range would provide an excellent entry point. Keeping a close eye on it to catch it the lower the better.

AAPL: Yesterday's drop in the market shouldn't be taken as evidence that AAPL is going down further. I'm looking to short it but need further convincing evidence that it is just not following the market down. I would like to see it continue yesterday's slide and continue down through 42.50/42 range to get the downside momentum flowing. About a week ago it looked like it was weakening and wanted to fall but some
weak support came in for a few days and now with a weak market it wouldn't take much to shakeout last weeks money and continue the slide down. I think it could go to 40 or lower.

RDWR: The problem with these low volume stocks is that it doesn't take much to move them down on low volume. Take a look at the daily chart of RDWR and you'll see a decent double bottom with a handle formed off of lower volume. Not a classic example but decent. The market hasn't helped this stock but I still have confidence in it and am keeping a close eye on it for a strong move up after this recent consolidation. Two indicators that I like are the A/D and OBV lines. Both slopes are still definitely tracking up which is a good sign money is still coming into the stock moreso than leaving. I'm keeping it on my watchlist and would re-enter at the first signs of it reversing upward.

I'm looking at a few other possible setups which I'll post later today. Trade what you see, not what you think.