Skiracer's stock slopes

[wooish]

Ski

Have you read about this rumor? If the speculation of C reverse split is true then us shorts are screwed.

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/04/20/why-u-s-government-wants-citigroup-nysec-over-5-a-share/

[skiracer]

Ski

Have you read about this rumor? If the speculation of C reverse split is true then us shorts are screwed.

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2...ver-5-a-share/

no, i hadnt heard of this wooish. but the govt is getting way to big and involved in everything we do. they are also in bed with the large corporations and corporate interests and dont really give a damn about the general public and feed us what they want to when they want to. im tired of it and it is the primary reason why i am making my move. it wont be much longer for me.

[steelman]

Ski,

About 3 weeks or so ago, you picked HOV in the POTW. Have you seen it lately? The last 2-3 weeks it has had a very nice move. Do you think it still has some room to keep going?
Thanks,
Steel

[skiracer]

Ski,

About 3 weeks or so ago, you picked HOV in the POTW. Have you seen it lately? The last 2-3 weeks it has had a very nice move. Do you think it still has some room to keep going?
Thanks,
Steel

Steel,
I like HOV alot and own it from $4.75. still holding. here's a chart with some of my thoughts. now that it has breached it's 100 ema there is no resistance and clear sailing to the 200 ema at $11.70 and i see no reason why it couldnt go over $10 or $12 range with a correction or two in the process. right now the daily is in overbought range above the 70 line but dont let that bother you. keep your eye on the weekly and monthly. take a look at its monthly. this stock was over $74 back in 2006 and when the housing sector comes back strong it will be a major player. it is cheap right now and at $4.75 was a steel man! hows that for a play on words.

[steelman]

A very nice play on words I remember when you mentioned it, there was something I liked about it. On 3/24 I had bought some May $5 calls at .35. They have steadily been going up. With the big move today, they hit 1.50. I am still holding because the chart still looks good to me. You seem to know charts much better, which is why I asked. Thanks for that one and I will watch it closely.
Best,
Steelman

[skiracer]

A very nice play on words I remember when you mentioned it, there was something I liked about it. On 3/24 I had bought some May $5 calls at .35. They have steadily been going up. With the big move today, they hit 1.50. I am still holding because the chart still looks good to me. You seem to know charts much better, which is why I asked. Thanks for that one and I will watch it closely.
Best,
Steelman

Im glad you made the play steel. study and learn them charts and get them from me while you still can. im planning on being out of the loop and the country by the end of this summer or early fall.

[steelman]

Ski,

Did you see the move today by HOV. It was up 3-4% this morning while the DOW was down 100 pts!! The volume has been sick the last 2 days. The options that I have went from 1.50 yesterday to 1.70 today. If we have an up day tomorrow, I just might have to cash in my ticket.
Thanks,
Steelman

[skiracer]

Ski,

Did you see the move today by HOV. It was up 3-4% this morning while the DOW was down 100 pts!! The volume has been sick the last 2 days. The options that I have went from 1.50 yesterday to 1.70 today. If we have an up day tomorrow, I just might have to cash in my ticket.
Thanks,
Steelman

HOV closed today at $7.14. thats 50.3% in about 3 full wks. from $4.75 entry. still holding.

[skiracer]

govt is going to start the selloff of their 7.7 bil. shares today. I'm still holding the short play from $4.24 and just might short it again at this level. Wooish, are you still holding those puts?

[wooish]

Yes I'm still holding 70 contracts of those May $4 C puts but I'm still underwater. My average is .08

[wooish]

Ski

ADAT is breaking down, is it going to get delisted?

[skiracer]

Ski

ADAT is breaking down, is it going to get delisted?

i just sold off my last 3900 shares at .91 at a .105 loss. not sure what is going on with it.

[skiracer]

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Treasury said on Monday it was launching its plan to sell off its 7.7 billion share stake in Citigroup "in an orderly fashion," another step in the withdrawal of the government as a major stakeholder in the company.
The Treasury said in a statement it had given Morgan Stanley, its sales agent, discretionary authority to sell up to 1.5 billion common shares under certain parameters set out in a pre-arranged written trading plan.
The Treasury said it expected to provide Morgan Stanley with the authority to sell more shares after the initial amount.
The U.S. government owns 27 percent of the bank's shares, a stake it acquired through $45 billion in bailouts to strengthen the bank's capital base in 2008 and 2009. Citi has paid back $20 billion in preferred shares, but another $25 billion was converted to common stock last year.
Shares of Citi fell 3.29 percent to $4.70 in morning trading. If the shares are sold around that price, the Treasury could still make a profit of some $12 billion on its Citi common stock holdings, as it acquired the shares at a conversion price of $3.25 each.
But Linus Wilson, an assistant professor of finance at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, said that there was about a 20.7 percent possibility that the shares could dip below that break-even price of $3.25 by mid-December.
"The quicker the Treasury really gets this sale on, the better the chance that they'll exit with a profit. But they should expect on average there to be seven or eight days that the stock will be below $3.25," he said.
Citigroup said in a regulatory filing Monday that the sales would be made through "ordinary brokers' transactions, in block transactions or as otherwise agreed" with the Treasury. The Treasury can also make a separate agreement to sell common stock shares to Morgan Stanley.
The settlement for the share sales "will occur on the third business day following the date on which any sales are made," Citigroup said in the filing. It estimated that it will pay approximately $82 million in total expenses for the offering.
The Morgan Stanley pre-set trading plan does not include the Treasury's holdings of Citigroup Trust Preferred Securities or warrants to purchase Citi common stock.
Under the Treasury's sales agreement with Morgan Stanley, the bank can earn between $23.577 million and about $134 million for selling all 7.7 billion shares. The Treasury will pay Morgan $0.003 for each Citi share sold electronically and $0.0175 for each share sold via other methods.

[skiracer]

here is an interesting observation regarding C. even in light of the govt starting to sell off their 7.7 bil. shares which as per the article posted in my previous post should drive the price down under $4 and perhaps even as low as $3.25 todays call action is far outweighing the put action. here is how the action is going with the June 10 / $5 call vs the June 10 / $5 put and the Sept 10 / $5 calls and puts:

Call open price last price ask bid volume open inter.
june 10/$5 .48 .19 .20 .19 77950 1,127,265
Put open price last price ask bid volume open inter
june 10/$5 .39 .53 .53 .52 15056 261,685

Call open price last price ask bid volume open inter
sept 10/$5 .48 .38 .38 .37 58747 397,378
Put open price last price ask bid volume open inter
sept 10/$5 .60 .70 .71 .70 6423 300670

it is clear that today there is a much heavier interest in buying the calls vs the puts for both june and sept expiration. it seems to be indicating that more people think that the price levels will hold at these levels and that $5 as a strike price is not prohibitive. in reality you can buy the june 10 / $5 Call and your cost plus the cost of the call would be under the $5 strike price right here. before the open today the stocks price was $4.88 and the cost of the call was .26 for a total of $5.14. looks like the june 10 / $5 call might be a bargain here. the sept 10/$5 call is almost the same way. the sept 10/$5 call is now at .38 and the stock is at $4.65 or $5.13. the difference between the june 10 and sept 10 calls to expiration is 53 days to expiration on the june 10 call and 144 days to expiration on the sept 10 call. you get 91 days more on the sept 10 call for .38 vs .19 on the june 10 call. both calls seem to be a decent deal according to those numbers and the current mindset of buyers but i would opt for the sept 10 calls for the extra time which is a big deal in this case.

[wooish]

Interesting I guess the pps will not go below $4 even after the gov't sold all their shares. Maybe we should consider going long when it's around $4.