Cashmaker's hot stocks and trading

[cashmaker]

next play: TZOO bottom established , I was worried it will go down more this morning,

next play: TZOO bottom established , I was worried it will go down more this morning, so I shorted it above 32,covered 31.3. Now it seems volume halted, should see some rebounce soon, it has 44.5% short interest on Mar 8th. I am in here 31. 4

[cashmaker]

Analysis on CD:

Cendant operate in five segments: Hospitality (e.g. Ramada, Days Inn, Howard Johnson), Real Estate (e.g. Century 21, Coldwell Banker), Vehicle Services (e.g. Avis Group Holdings), Financial Services (e.g. tax preparation, credit card info.), and Travel Distribution.

RAMADA and Days INN are typical cheap hotel nationwide. In NY area, Ramada is pretty popular for low rate hotel. From economy POW, just like ebay and walmart, when people want to save money, they will choose cheap price products. If you buy house, you must know what Century 21 is.

The company recently spinoff of its mortgage and fleet businesses to shareholders through a distribution of PHH Corp. stock. The spinoff is in keeping with the company's plans to focus on the travel industry. Cendant had been shopping its mortgage business for some time in order to remove the volatility associated with interest-rate movements.

Absent the mortgage business, management has lowered its earnings guidance to $1.35-$1.40 a share, on sales of $17.4 million $18.1 million. The April 25 has earning out, which is 0.24/share, this is after lower the earning guidance, so the earning will be right on target, or barely beat.

From FA POW, belong to mid cap with 20B Market Cap. Cendant to post 15% year-over-year bottom-line growth. 11.54 P/E ratio with 11.83 forward P/E, the diluted EPS is due to the Absent the mortgage business. High institution holding and low agency cost with large dividend pay out, 0.04% insider holding. little 0.72% short interest. 77.60% Earnings Growth: 8.80% Revenue Growth: 12.075 book value per share, but the concern is its debt to equity ration:1.587. Seems their business sector is in travel and real estate, the D/E ratio is not very high.

Fresh off its acquisition of Orbitz, the number two Internet booking company, it continues to extend its presence via numerous smaller acquisitions, such as London-based Gullivers Travel Associates and Octupus Travel Group Ltd. Also, CD named former Priceline COO Mitch Truwitt, to be president of its travel group.

The development of the growing online travel segment to help CD get things back on track in 2006 and to produce healthy gains out to in the next 2-3 years. The stock holds above-average long-term appeal and good timeline.

TA analysis: RSI touch the 20 line, almost 52 week low, volume is picking up this year with average 3,777,772 volume. Under 20, 50, 100MA line. See Bottom and support at 19 level.

Short term target >20, 2-3 year targe :40-60

[cashmaker]

Ebay been oversold recently.

Ebay been oversold recently.
eBay's current Price Target is $77 (+41% from the 2004 Target of $55 and +144% from the 04/22/05 price of $31.51). This dramatic rise in the Target is the result of a +35% increase in the equity base and a +4% increase in the price/equity multiple.

http://cnnfn.investor.reuters.com/ReportDetails.aspx?docid=20561334&sId=1

Ebay oversold recently

Although it has a little bit problem by increasing commision fee, it is growing company and with small competitors (overstock.com is small relative to ebay).


Standing Up To a Giant


Ebay aims to conquer China. Jack Ma has his "ants" doing handstands to repel the American invasion.

Ebay has conquered online auctioning, racking up $778 million in profit last year on a transaction volume of $34 billion. But Ebay won't stay on top unless it also conquers what eventually will be the world's largest market for online goods:China. Ebay bought its way into China in 2002, holds half of a $1 billion market and will spend $100 million this year to bolster its presence there. China is a "must win" and "is likely to be the defining measure of business success on the Net," Ebay Chief Meg Whitman told Wall Street analysts in early February. "A bunch of small competitors are nipping at our heels."

Jack Ma is more than a mere ankle-biter. Ma runs the Taobao consumer site, the biggest homegrown rival to Ebay in China. Though it didn't start up until a year after Ebay arrived, Taobao has quickly gobbled up 41% of China's online auction sales, compared with Ebay's 53%; it has 4 million registered users, gaining on Ebay's claim of 10 million customers in the country. To take on the decidedly American presence of Ebay, Taobao--Mandarin for "searching for treasure"--plays up its local staff and an all-China focus; its online moderators use screen names from characters in famous Chinese kung fu novels. Most important, Taobao doesn't charge sellers a cut, as Ebay does.

Ma's core business is Alibaba, the business-to-business Web auction site he's been building since the Internet craze of the late 1990s.Now at $68 million in annual sales, Alibaba competes locally with the longer-established Global Sources. Like Taobao, Alibaba offers basic service free of charge but gets revenue from 85,000 members who pay $250 to $10,000 a year for extra services such as personalized Web pages and accreditation.

Alibaba's main site is devoted to in-China trade, and a second site handles trade with companies in the rest of the world. So naturally Ma must keep his eye on the Ebay juggernaut, which is aimed at both consumer and business users.

The Taobao site is "a firewall on the consumer side against Ebay coming after Alibaba," says Jason Brueschke, a sell-side analyst with Pacific Growth Equities in San Francisco. Setting up Taobao "was defensive at first," Ma concedes. "But now we are going after them."

In the combined office for the two businesses in Hangzhou, two hours' drive south of Shanghai, he is brash: "We want to be the world's largest consumer site."

Toppling Ebay is a bold (if not suicidal) ambition, and Ma tells his staff it requires a different perspective. Ebay looks less fearsome when you're upside down, he argues, so new employees are encouraged to learn how to do a handstand. It's going to take more than that. Ebay, with $3.3 billion a year in revenue, expects overseas sales to eclipse its U.S. business in two years. It now is the dominant auction site in Germany, France and Australia, crushing local rivals or buying them; it leads in Korea and Singapore; and it just launched in Malaysia, the Philippines and India. It is considering Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

But Ebay's Whitman says China is top priority. China's population of Net users, likely to surpass 100 million this year, is second only to that of the U.S. and may double in two years. Taobao and Ebay "are fighting tooth and nail," says Victor Koo, who runs China portal Sohu. "If Ebay wants to be a global consumer site, it needs China."

And China is a special case, Ma argues."Ebay may be a shark in the ocean, but I am a crocodile in the Yangtze River. If we fight in the ocean, we lose--but if we fight in the river, we win."

At 40, Ma is known respectfully around Alibaba as "Grandfather," having formed China's first Internet company in 1995, about the time Jeff Bezos was starting Amazon.com in the U.S. That year Ma, who'd learned English as a youth hanging out at a tourist hotel and offering free guided tours to foreign guests, got to the U.S. as an interpreter for a trade delegation. He visited friends in Seattle and learned about the Internet.

After some early ups and downs with Web startups back home, he was able to raise $25 million in 1999 from Goldman Sachs, Softbank of Japan and others to form Alibaba. Today that business clears $5 billion a year in transactions (Ebay's size,as a pay site,in 2000).

Ebay entered China in 2002 by paying $30 million for a one-third stake in Eachnet, an auction site set up three years earlier by Harvard graduate Yibo Shao and a partner. A year later Ebay bought the rest of Eachnet for $150 million, keeping on its chief, Shao. He vows that Ebay Eachnet, as the site is known, will win: "There can be only one big [consumer auction] site in China."

Ma countered by teaming up with Masayoshi Son's Softbank to launch the Taobao consumer site for $56 million. He picked the ideal partner:Son had beaten back Ebay in Japan by taking an early lead in auctions with his Yahoo Japan joint venture. Ebay closed its Japan site in early 2002.

"We were both thinking the same thing:Son kicked Ebay out of Japan. I have the same chance in China," Ma says. "Ebay doesn't think we are a threat. China will be a worse defeat than Japan." His swagger rankles some observers. Last year Ma gave a presentation on his grand scheme to half a dozen Wall Street types, and one of them stalked out midway through the pitch, with a parting shot:"Ebay will win!"

But so far not a single Western Web site has succeeded in China. AOL in 1999 launched a $200 million joint venture with China's biggest PCmaker, Legend Computer (now called Lenovo). Three years later AOLsold out, and Legend switched to a local telecom partner. All the top sites in China are homegrown: Sina for portals, Shanda for games and, for search, Baidu, which is about to go public. Yahoo is an also-ran in the market; its auction site, 1pai.com, runs a distant third to Ebay and Taobao.

In addition to the $100 million spending spree that Ebay plots this year, it spent an undisclosed sum to sign exclusive deals with China's three largest portals (Sina, Sohu and Netease) to block Taobao ads from those sites. (Sohu and Sina have since dropped the exclusives). "They are doing everything they can to block us," says Ma. Ebay is also plastering ads all over China, on subway platforms and buses. "They have deep pockets, but we will cut a hole in their pocket," Ma jokes.

Ebay has stumbled since scaling the Great Wall. Last year it overhauled the Eachnet site to comply with Ebay's worldwide format. The design change confused some customers, and product listings plunged--down to 250,000 from 780,000 before the switch. Ebay lost some fans last May, when it changed the rules about how sellers can limit their buying audience. "Many power sellers left Ebay to go to Taobao," says Ebay power seller Wang Yun, who remains loyal to the site. Ebay denies it.

Chen Zhuoyuan started selling clothes from Wuxi, China over Ebay's site a year ago but quit after a week because of technical problems, switching to Taobao. "The trades are bigger," she says. Ebay also lags behind in offering its PayPal payment system in China, while Ma launched his own version, Alipay, in January. And the online giant has been shuffling local management, keeping Shao as chairman but assigning a new chief executive officer. "Taobao didn't win the first battle, but Ebay lost it," Ma maintains.

Ebay's onslaught can be expected to continue, but Ma has a fallback: Dozens or hundreds of Ebay sellers in China are cheaply sourcing goods from Ma's Alibaba site, then reselling the items at a profit, says analyst Brueschke.

In addition to its free-pricing practice, Taobao uses guerrilla marketing to keep up with Ebay's might. The China site advertises on the cheap on hundreds of small Web outlets ignored by Ebay. Taobao is the eighth most popular site in China, ahead of Ebay at number 13, according to Alexa, an Internet traffic monitor. An Ebay spokesman argues Taobao's guerrilla tactics artificially inflate its ranking because pop-up ads for Taobao on other sites count as "visitors" to Taobao itself. "It's like saying a person seeing your billboard has visited your store," says Shao. Ma says he is phasing out that ploy--with no visible drop-off in Taobao's Alexa ranking.

In contrast to the Ebay machine, Taobao and Alibaba are vintage dot-com. Young Chinese hipsters in blue jeans sit at open desks beneath posters that say: "Pay any price, do anything, to WIN!" Last year Ma staged a fifth-anniversary bash, in an arena, for all 2,000 employees, with Taobaoists waving flags of worker ants, their mascot--the conceit being that tiny but united they can defeat an elephant. The four-hour event ended with everyone holding hands and singing the lyrics "You have to go through a thunderstorm to see a rainbow"--a reference to the dot-com bust and the dark days of the SARS virus scare as Taobao launched in mid-2003. Then they went disco dancing late into the night, climbing on the bar--Ma among them.

Hijinks can goose morale, but the business model of gaining footing with free traffic and snaring revenue from ancillary services is what concerns those Wall Street skeptics Ma encountered last year. Blessed with his seemingly patient backers and "enough gas in the tank," his Alibaba Holdings has not joined the dot-com rush to the public markets that led to turbulence in the West and later in China.

"Alibaba plans for the long term, and our focus is on our customers and building a great business," maintains Ma. "Plus, our competitors are public, so we know all of their war plans. Why would we want to give up that advantage?"

Additional reporting by Maggie Chen.

[cashmaker]

comment on EBAY:

comment on EBAY:
Although ebay been down for a longtime due to its increased commition fee and lost some customer to other competitors and only 2 cents earning top on the expectation, at least from TA, it will rebounce. Article mention that GOOG is cheaper than EBAY, I think this is not true. People always predict think according to the recent historical data, when it is uptrend ,people are hype and pump, overbought the already-up-stock. The other way around, when price down, people always dump and criticize the company, think about it, why those critique all come out after fact, why they don't bring it out when the price was skyrocket. This is called overreaction. So when the price is too low due to oversold, it is time to buy.

[cashmaker]

NGPS Air Force Contract coming on May 7

NGPS Air Force Contract coming on May 7

GPS DL-4 RECEIVER ENCLOSURE WITH DATA LOGGING CAPABILITIES

Copyright (c) 2005 Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc. All rights reserved

NOTICE TYPE: Special Notice

DATE POSTED: 21-APR-05

AGENCY: Department of the Air Force

OFFICE ADDRESS: Department of the Air Force, Air Force Materiel Command, AFFTC - AF Flight Test Center, 5 S WOLFE AVE, Edwards AFB, CA, 93524-1185

SUBJECT: GPS DL-4 Receiver Enclosure with Data Logging Capabilities

CLASSIFICATION CODE: 59 - Electrical and electronic equipment components

SOLICITATION NUMBER: F1S0AE5077B001

CONTACT: Terence Vickers, Contract Negotiator, Phone 661-277-9559, Fax 661-275-7860, Email [email protected]

NOTICE TEXT: Department of the Air Force

Air Force Materiel Command

AFFTC - AF Flight Test Center

Notice of Contract Action for a Sole Source Procurement

SUBJECT: NOTICE OF INTENT TO AWARD A SOLE SOURCE PROCUREMENT FOR NOVATEL Products.

DESC: INTENT TO AWARD A SOLE SOURCE PROCUREMENT WITH NOVATEL INC. The Air Force, Edwards Air Force Base, CA intends to award a Sole Source purchase order to NOVATEL INC., 1120-68th Ave NE, Calgary AB T2E 8S5 Canada. NOVATEL INC. is the manufacturer. The Sole Source purchase will be for the following commercial items:

1. P/N: DL-4+L1L2W, Manufacturer: NOVATEL, DL-4+L1L2W-L1/L2, RT-2 Output, SBAS, Quantity - 4

2. P/N: 31324181, Mfr: NOVATEL, High Capacity Industrial Grade Compact Flash Memory Card (For DL-4PLUS) (Min 1Gb), Quantity - 4

3. P/N: SW-PP-GNVT-Post Processing Software, Quantity - 2

4. P/N: DL-4+RT2, Mfr: NOVATEL-DL-4+RT2-L1/L2, 2 cm RTK Position, Quantity - 2

Pertaining to the above items, the Air Force Flight Center (AFFTC), Edwards AFB, CA has a requirement for GPS receiver enclosure with data logging capabilities to be used for the B-1 and B-52 CTF programs. The DL-4 plus is a rugged, lightweight enclosure containing the OEM4-G2 receiver and featuring integrated memory, an LCD, and a keypad for data logging. It offers three serial ports, USB support, a configurable PPS output and mark input, and a variable frequency output. The following are the required specifications:

*Internal flash card recording for ease of data removal and reliability recording

*Compact size and rugged packaging required with OTS (off-the-shelf) availability, weight 3 lbs (1.4Kg) or less -

*Must have dynamic tracking capability for flight test vehicles and be able to acquire satellite tracking when initialized airborne

*Must have ability of both code and kinematics (Li & L2) data recording capabilities

*Must have a minimum data sampling rate of 20Hz

*Must be able to operate in a variable VDC input (+6-18 VDC)

*While in a data logging mode, must use less than 5 watts

*Must have multiple data 110 ports for communications and data outputs

*Must have a display panel for user interfacing and programming.

Please note that this is not a request for competitive proposals. However, all interested parties who believe they can meet the requirements are invited to submit in writing complete information describing their ability to provide the items above. Responses may be sent via e-mail to [email protected] or mailed to AFFTC/PKDB, 5 South Wolfe Ave, Edwards AFB, CA 93524-1185, Attention: Terence D. Vickers. Phone Number 661-277-9559 and Fax Number: 661-275-7860. Information received as a result of this notice will be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. A determination by the Air Force not to open the requirement to open competition, based on response to this notice, is solely within the discretion of the Air Force. If the office has not received any affirmative written responses by Close of Business (COB), 7 May 2005, a Sole Source purchase order will be pursued with NOVATEL INC., 1120-68th Ave NE, Calgary AB T2E 8S5 Canada.

INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.eps.gov/spg/USAF/AFMC/AFF...1/listing.html

Provided by Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc. (FIND) 202-429-5944

Terence Vickers, Contract Negotiator, Phone 661-277-9559, Fax 661-275-7860, Email [email protected]

CNDL000020050422e14m00048

[Websman]

Contracts are usually a good sign. Go NGPS!

[spikefader]

Well it needs sumfin to bulldoze the bearishness out of the chart.

[cashmaker]

Today still not a good day to trade. Market swing up and down, waiting for the Fed gu

Today still not a good day to trade. Market swing up and down, waiting for the Fed guidance at 2:15 today. Interest rate raise is a must, the point is the futher movement. I believe the Fed will continue rise the interest rate to cure Inflation pressure. Now the economy is under a crosscurrent situation: high inflation plus recession. But since Fed focus on inflation at this point, I think interest rate will keep going up, which will give US corporation pressure on high financing cost. Also oil pirce will keep going up during the summer, and unemployment won't be too good. I don't think Greenspan will give very clear and positive statement, but blur and neutral or even negative instead. Just my thought, I will trade heavily after the trend is clear.

[spikefader]

In AIRT $16.5 for both FA and TA.
FA: this is a porfitable company with P/E ration 19, Price/Sales 0.66. Growth margin 19.20%. Profit Margin % 3.46 ROE 19.91,Return on Assets 11.17, Return on Investment 16.26. Low float only 1.5M, 20% hold by institution means 1.2M tradeable , low debt. Low short interest
TA: touch 50M, pull back from 52 weeks high $35. RSI shows oversold and W%R showing also oversold. Reuters gives 0 risk alert recently.
I predict the price will go back to $20 in the next couple weeks with increasing MACD and volume recently.

Current thoughts on AIRT cash? Has shown recent weakness and hasn't made a run for your 20.00. Looking short bias to me.....

[spikefader]

Cashmaker. I'm sad for ya that you haven't made any cash on NGPS and the TA pointed to is coming to fruition. For the benefit of readers who may have followed you on it, where do you stand on it today? You said here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...6&postcount=60 that you won't sell below $25.00. What was your entry price or average, and do you have a stop in place for it or is it a bagholder for you? My current chart for it whispers lower still

[New-born baby]

ESMC re-visited

Spike,

Wow. NGPS is just like Tomrich said: "It's chart looks just like ESMC of a year ago." ESMC is current a $3.90 stock! OUCH!

I don't like being a bag holder. That's why I daytrade.

[cashmaker]

NGPS earning next Monday

NGPS earning next Monday

NGPS GRMN ASY TRMB LEIX MOT QCOM ROK SYMM XATA .
Most of the GPS company has good earning for 1Q gives some confidence on GPS market. NGPS has NAVY and Air force contracts going on, the announce date should be May 7th. "NGPS Air Force Contract coming on May 7 GPS DL-4 RECEIVER ENCLOSURE WITH DATA LOGGING CAPABILITIES ". Take care.

[cashmaker]

GMTN is a good buy here

GMTN is a good buy here

[cashmaker]

LAZ strong buy, $24, $1 off the IPO price 25,

LAZ strong buy, $24, $1 off the IPO price 25,
due to the weak market. LAZ will take advantage of the hot M&A market. The buy out heirs of the founders, including former chairman Michel David-Weill, at a cost of $1.6 billion will reduce the agency cost since LAZ has conflict between founders and managers. This is a long term stock, not for day trade. Greenhill & Co Inc (GHL) IPO a year ago @ 20, not 58% return.

[cashmaker]

LAZ short interest (naked short) article

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh51850_2005-05-19_20-12-38_n19500246_newsml

LAZ has no problem with it business and involve into the hottest business sector: Merge and Acquicistion, take a look at this year how many firms merge then you will see the light.

Just like TASR that I called around $8.5 on May 4. Short interest will boost the stock up. Same thing to NGPS, more short, more jump(if you can hold).