Swing trading... lessons learned...

[dmk112]

You got that right, always hard to judge. Selling early beats selling late. I always have second thoughts though. Plus, being critical of myself will help me in the long run in paying attention to all signals.

Between yesterday and today, I see an evening doji star forming on VPHM. I'll await confirmation tomorrow. If it starts bad from the open, that's all, BUT ONLY IF CONFIRMED.

Doji Star - is that bullish or bearish?

[skiracer]

People are posting about how they feel like they are selling off their positions to early an in the same breath are talking of maybe selling off VPHM because it looks like it may be weakening.
I wouldn't call it weakening as much as digesting some very strong gains over the last few weeks. You also have to consider the normality of consolidation for a number of reasons. Mainly traders, day, swing, and momo guys taking some of their money off the table. They know the minute it begins to drop somewhat from their profit taking the anxious smaller retail guys will begin to sell off positions and before you know it the same guys are getting back in lower than they exited. It needs room to breathe and mature just like a fine wine.
Now the smart money might just sell some portion off and buy more on the drop if it drops. But in all honesty I can't see it dropping below 11.50 or maybe 11.25 and that would be stretching it. But let me ask you this. If it were to drop to 11.25 how many of you would be rushing in to buy it at that price. I know I would be picking up another full position or 1000 shares if it went that low and so would thousands of other traders. Patience. That's why it is good to have a plan and a target for that plan with stocks like this. It's going to go up and pullback digesting gains along the way up to a pretty nice number. A couple of years ago it was at $30 or so. You really have to know what you want to do with this one and stick to it because it is going to go much higher.
I see a couple of options here. Stay in from your original entry and ride it up or exit an enter several times trading it over the course of this run up. I think the second option is somewhat harder and takes more of a true swing trader mentallity and emotional control to do that because of the number of decisions which would have to be made getting in an out on the dips and bounces.
I'm up over 3 points on my half position and looking to get another 1000 shares if I can somewhere around 11.25/11.50 if it goes that low. Only tomorrow will tell so you're going to have to be watching real close to be on top of any move.

[B.J]

Thanks for the words Ski. $$MM$$ is right. You add a lot to this forum.

I still consider myself very much a novice in the entry/exit points when swing trading. Seems like it'll be especially difficult to do with this stock. I did notice it beginning to drop sharply before the bell (12.40-11.80 in a few minutes), and the buyers did step in rather forcefully. I guess I never discount the possibility of the floor falling out, no matter what stock it is.

[diogenes]

From my inexperienced, but watchful position it looked like the majority of drops in value for vphm today occurred on trades using a relatively small lot size, which was then proceeded by a much larger buy.

However, I am mainly basing this on the first few hours of trading.

[skiracer]

I like to watch the OBV and A/D lines just for that reason. If they stay trending up there won't be any problem. If they turn down then money is beginning to flood out and that could be a problem. Hope I didn't come on to strong with that last post and going back an reading it I felt like I was lecturing. That's not what I want to come across like and not my game plan at all. Sorry if it sounded like that. I like this stock alot and feel pretty comfortable with forcasting a nice trend upward, markets helping out of course.
BJ,
I'm the eternal optimist. I never think anything is going to go wrong which has worked to my detriment at times. It's good to have a certain amount of skeptism and caution in your head, just not to let it gain control an overide your better judgement. There are always plenty of ways to protect your position without acting to quickly or irrationally.

[B.J]

Ski, I'd say optimism probably works much better than pessimism in this current market environment

Case in point, I saw ERS is about 2.00 where I sold it... always happy to make money, but should not be satisfied. As Webs said, I'm still used to the crappy market of the first six months this year.

[mooddude]

always happy to make money, but should not be satisfied

That's exactly what I inferred from my trades so far. Good point!
On the downside, I would add... to cut your losses while they are small and be happy they didn't pile up.

[B.J]

My plan with ABLE today. Working so far:



Well, the IMG is giving me a red X. I'll just insert link:

http://img249.imageshack.us/my.php?image=able1af.jpg

[B.J]

Also snagged some HANS. Spike's commentary on the reversal helped convince me. Just over $90, not ideal, but only took partial position.

[dmk112]

Nice move on ABLE again, let's see if it can actually do something with it this time. Although a radio show I listen to says that Oils & Healthcare stocks are topping, but who knows...

[B.J]

ABLE continues to keep me guessing.

AMLN triggered a stop below the 200 DMA. Pretty bearish day for that stock. I'll see how low that can get before trying again.

[Websman]

ABLE continues to keep me guessing.

AMLN triggered a stop below the 200 DMA. Pretty bearish day for that stock. I'll see how low that can get before trying again.

I look for AMLN to fill the gap at $17.92.

[skiracer]

I liked AMLN the week I picked it in the game but it never got off the ground from that point. Can't see a long position from here and not crazy about a short trade either right now. But shorting it looks alot better than taking it long right now. If it continues to slide then catching a short setup to go to around 17.50 looks good.

[B.J]

Webs, Ski, I agree. Today was just nasty for AMLN. I'm certainly looking for the 17-18 area, and I think Spike stated the same over in AMLN's thread.

[B.J]

Stopped out on ABLE again... Fell below what I figured was support, and go figure, the stop was .05 above the low. I should have just DT'd ABLE from the start.

Opened up on SIRI for 7.00.