TOL ==> The Summer Solstice Winner

[mrmarket]

Gates selling shares! The sky is falling!!

Gates Sells 12M Microsoft Shares
Fahmida Y. Rashid, 08.05.05, 5:45 PM ET



NEW YORK - Everyone else is cashing in on Microsoft, so why not the company's chairman?

Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) Chairman Bill Gates has sold about 12 million shares of the company's common stock in a series of transactions over a five-day period, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The filings, six in all, covered the period from July 27 to Aug. 2. The sales ranged from $25.65 per share to $26.89. At the average price, Gates would have made over $315 million from the sales. Microsoft announced its second-quarter earnings on July 21, when it closed at $26.44. After a slight drop to $25.68, share prices have been rising steadily, closing at $27.76 on Friday.

The transactions ranged in size, with the largest sale of 570,618 shares and the smallest of 100 shares. On Aug. 2 alone he sold approximately 4 million shares for a haul of $99 million.

Other filings showed that Robert Bach, a Microsoft senior vice president, also sold 30,000 shares on Aug. 2. Other Microsoft senior vice-presidents, namely Kevin Johnson, Eric Rudder and Jeffrey Raikes, sold some shares, but their transactions remained below 1,000.

Gates still owns more than 1 billion shares of Microsoft, which are worth about $27.8 billion at Friday's closing price.



Insider sales! Microsoft must be going to zero! Sell everyone sell now! The sky is falling!!


See how funny that sounds??

[skiracer]

MM,
There is no doubt in my mind that TOL and a few of the other home builders like KBH will rebound to their previous levels or close to them. And when they do I for one will be lurking in the shadows for the setups for the ride up. When you first bought TOL I didn't like the trade because at the time I thought that the whole sector was overbought an I couldn't have been farther off base. I know they don't continue trending up forever and felt that it would only be a matter of time before they would have to consolidate some of those gains. I still believe the whole sector is somewhat overbought an extended and due for that. The sad part about it all was that it wasn't falling earnings or anything substantial in that regard that triggered todays selloff in that sector. Some brokerage puts out a news release on their feelings about the stock and bingo it falls and takes a few others with it because of a news release which is just their opinion.
Basically it's a good thing because it will provide a great entry for new money to come into those stocks and sector again after the purge is over.
Aside from the fact that I just felt the stock and sector is overbought doesn't mean that I think the stock is a stinko because I can read and see value when it is in front of me. I do think that TOL and KBH and a few of the others in the home builders sector are great stocks and will bounce back from this once they have reached a price where the built in fundamental value is to good to pass up. In the meantime if your discipline and strategys are of the nature to capitalize on movement in any direction then you must take advantage of what you see in front of you if only for a day or few days. That's what I love about this country and capitalism in general. It provides the opportunity to take advantage of everything available if you can and want to.
I learned something today that I didn't know. After buying the puts on TOL I was looking to buy some puts on HANS, which I felt was somewhat overbought, an in the process learned that there are no options available on it. But today was just one of those days where things caught up with a few stocks that looked like they were to good to ever take a fall. Again it will provide the impetus for fresh money to flow in which is a good thing.
After I posted this I was doing the calculations for the end results for the contest and while doing that it occurred to me what a great site you have created here and what a great mix of people have found their way to it. Your a true sport and I must admit our relationship has come a long way from the beginning because of what you have done here. I've been to a few and there are no others anywhere near as good as this one for what you can get here. I'm sure you know that but I hope that sometimes it's just nice to hear it from someone that respects you.

[mrmarket]

right back atcha skiracer....your voice on this forum is loud and clear and well respected. Wait til we hit 100,000 members, you'll be a rock star. I think Karel can calculate what year that will be.

I don't know what it is about the IBD forum but it seems to breed a lot of negativity. This is a much happier place. Plus I like the pictures better over here.

[jiesen]

Jiesen, Is that a typo because the stock opened today at 53.05, the high was 53.24, and the low was 49.51 which the momo and daytraders picked up on and bought into to pick up almost a point before the final closing price. I don't think it ever saw 58 today.

No, I sold it for about a 15% gain on 7/20 at $58 (which is the date of the post I quoted there).

I believe it'll come right back to $58, which is why I bought it again at $51. Plus, it guarantees I'll have the funds available for the $$MM pick that comes around next time TOL hits $58!

The one thing that worries me though, buying into 3 positions in the same sector. For me that just means around 5-6% of my portfolio, but still. Homebuilders do look to be a bit overbought right now, just from the charts, but so did the oil sector a year ago, and look at it now! I figured $$MM knows what he's doing, so why not stick with the plan. BMHC sure isn't going away anytime soon. And neither is TOL or KBH for that matter.

[mrmarket]

100% growth and a PE of 12....I know a bargain when I see one.

[New-born baby]

It's the other dummies that count

100% growth and a PE of 12....I know a bargain when I see one.

Yes, but does the market? That has always been the question. TOL is up a whopping .18 in pre-market. I'd thought it would have bounced even higher.

[mrmarket]

Yes, but does the market? That has always been the question. TOL is up a whopping .18 in pre-market. I'd thought it would have bounced even higher.

That's one thing I don't care about. In the short run, the market can be wrong about a stock. In the long run, a stock's price MUST come back to what it SHOULD be. I have the patience to wait.

[New-born baby]

Can't argue with success

That's one thing I don't care about. In the short run, the market can be wrong about a stock. In the long run, a stock's price MUST come back to what it SHOULD be. I have the patience to wait.

I cannot argue with your success. You do have patience and profits.

Edit: TOL now down about .05. Nice entry if you believe she's headed up today.

[New-born baby]

In at $49.65

Jumped in at $49.65. I saw on the chart that MSL was $49.50--let's hope it holds and goes up from here.

So many shares changing hands that I had to wait about 2 minutes to get my order filled. And the bid is about .05 higher than the ask on IB. It has to be crazy down there.

[New-born baby]

Sell the news . . . .

Sell the news . . . .

[New-born baby]

Brutal!

Sell the news . . . .

Incredibly brutal! Down over $1 on such good news.

[mrmarket]

Incredibly brutal! Down over $1 on such good news.

NBB,

I know this is painful, but try this calculation. Figure out what TOL's PE ratio would be if they earn what they say they are going to earn next year.

Why should the market have more insight into what this company is going to earn than what TOL says they are going to earn.

Look how fickle the market is....it sold off when it thought there was a bubble, then when the July numbers came out, there was a strong rally. The market does not KNOW anything, it merely reacts to information...no different from what an animal does.

I KNOW I am smarter than the market. I KNOW that when I meet someone, there is a 99% chance that I am smarter than he is. That won't change. I like my odds.

[New-born baby]

Bigger charts on TOL

For whom the bell TOL's . . . .
Hey, ya'll try this size chart out for size and see how you like it.

Remember: click on chart. Then click again before you maximize the pop up box.
I've got a 19" monitor. I took Runner's advice and got a new system. My question about my charts now: are they too large for you?

[Websman]

I have a friend who bought TOL today at around $49 and was concerned about his quick loss. I told him that I thought he would end up with a profit if he would not panic and sell too early.

It's amazing how humans can get in a panic mode so easy. It pays to be a Vulcan.

[New-born baby]

The Vulcan's World View

I have a friend who bought TOL today at around $49 and was concerned about his quick loss. I told him that I thought he would end up with a profit if he would not panic and sell too early.

It's amazing how humans can get in a panic mode so easy. It pays to be a Vulcan.

Webs,
I am interested in the Vulcan's view of the world of TOL. Do you have a price target? Is there a price that you would buy TOL right now? Just looking for your opinion.

By the way, nice job with PDC. What kind of a target do you have with her?