TOL ==> The Summer Solstice Winner

[mrmarket]

I think the Hovnanians were too busy making grape leaves and misguided Wall Street. They still had big earnings...they just missed the Street numbers.

In their conference call, they said that they thought prices would go down for homes. I guess they are setting themselves up for next year...very clever those Armenians!

[New-born baby]

TOL's Future--the pivot point

New-bord baby,
Do you think TOL will bounced back after yesterday hit - considering the last earning reports did not boost it up much.

Thanks,

Rico--
TOL's future is at a critical juncture today. I am not optimistic.

There are two positives on the chart. #1 If you look at the chart, yesterday TOL very nearly touched a channel, signalling that now is the time to buy the stock--if you believe in the stock. #2 the MACD histogram is showing positive divergence (the MACD histogram is pointing up, while the price is declining). That is generally a bullish signal. If you entered now, put stops up tight.

But my view is that those are false signals. Now I could be wrong. But what the chart is showing me is that TOL is possibly headed to a serious fall. Details below the chart.


#1 Wednesday she showed clear sign that Thursday was going to be a bear:the doji (evening) star. Thursday we had the drop.
#2 That drop was on serious volume.
#3 TOL's current support is above a serious gap. That is *usually* good for one tag before it shatters like glass. (She tagged it Thursday). The stock usually falls through that gap very quickly when it does fail.
#4 TOL is forming the complex shoulder~shoulder~head (actually two heads)~shoulder~shoulder. This formation is bearish, and signals that *IF* that neck breaks, then you are looking at $35, plus or minus a dollar, as the bottom.

WHAT TO DO: if you already own the stock: I would not want to hold it below the green line of support. Yes, MM says that HOV is saying lower home prices, and that they are setting themselves up for next year. If that's true, you are still looking at next year. (I don't hold stocks that long. I'd cut bait and re-enter lower if I saw support fail). If they are actually telling the truth, then you are looking at lower home prices, lower profits, and a lower stock price (i.e., $35 stock price). Take these facts into consideration, too.

IF you do not already own the stock: stand back. This is certainly no bullish chart. There are lots of better looking charts in the world.

Think about it: Is the New Orleans disaster bigger than the 911 hit we took? And did the 911 hit hurt the economy for 3 years? Then where do you think home prices are going if there is a downturn in the economy?

And what about this: do you think lumber prices will increase due to New Orleans? If home prices fall, and lumber prices increase, you are looking at a profit squeeze for TOL and all the homebuilders, are you not?
Remember: this is just my view of things.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
Plywood went up 1.25 per board within about 2 days of Katrina here. We're a long ways from New Orleans.


billyjoe

p.s. The president said he would vigorously prosecute all price gougers. A spokesman then said the problem was there is no agreed upon definition for the word. He said that 6.00 per gallon wasn't gouging if there was demand and especially if no other station was near by. Some people will just have to get their reward or judgement from a higher power.

[ricofrans]

New-Born Baby,

Many thanks for such comprehensive analysis and views.
I bought the stock following Mr. Market but sold it @ 56.21 on 7/21.
I have just re-entered a couple daus ago at 48.89 after seeing some of the buy signals. I will note your recommenation to exit if it fails the gap support.

I really enjoy and benefit from this forum.

Thanks a lot,

[jiesen]

TOL outbids the Donald

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050913/trump_atlantic_city.html?.v=4

But I don't know... is this a good thing or a bad thing?

[lemonjello]

TOL breakdown

TOL just broke down on big volume today. Next stop 37-8 area.

[New-born baby]

$35

TOL just broke down on big volume today. Next stop 37-8 area.

Here's the head and shoulders chart. $35 target. For a complete analysis, go to page 11 on this thread and see my call about this stock.

[Websman]

Man, TOL would have made a great short..

[New-born baby]

Still time . . .

Man, TOL would have made a great short..

Webs,
It still does.

[Runner]

Notice the Red line This shows money flow on TOL!!

[jiesen]

Don't you just love it when

the ANALysts call the bottom with their downgrades?

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/nicholasyulico/10248213.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

I hope they downgrade some more!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=TOL&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=kbh+spf

[ricofrans]

TOL breached $35 support

All,

Any thought on TOL?
Will it bounced back or will it continue down? What's the next support?

Thanks.

[Runner]

At this point it could head for the gap around 27, but who knows

[New-born baby]

For whom the bell TOLs

All,

Any thought on TOL?
Will it bounced back or will it continue down? What's the next support?

Thanks.

I think she is going to do the following--provided the market is not a total Black Friday, Black Monday, etc;

1. Bounce up and retest the support that just failed. That would be an excellent time to short TOL for another round, because she isn't going to recover that support anytime soon (imo).

2. Once that bounce has run its course, I look for a 61.8% retrace, and magically, that is right around the gap fill at $27.10.

3. Who knows if that will even stop her slide. I look across that chart and I see a lot of places that she could fall down to. Its a hard rain that's gonna fall.



Look at that chart. This stock has a whole lot of volume these days. Do you think that the vultures are busy plucking the flesh from this dead bull? Vultures, jackels, wolves, coyotes, possums, coons: they are all here and the business is quite brisk.

Notice something else: TOL would have formed a shoulder~head~shoulder, but the right should was 'blown off.' Looks like TOL was hit with a double barrelled 12 guage blast. Brutal.

[Runner]

Dawwwwgg NB, we agree on a chart, now we need Spikes input and if he agrees it will surley fly to the moon..haha, nottt any time soon