TOL ==> The Summer Solstice Winner

[Websman]

Webs,
I am interested in the Vulcan's view of the world of TOL. Do you have a price target? Is there a price that you would buy TOL right now? Just looking for your opinion.

By the way, nice job with PDC. What kind of a target do you have with her?

TOL is a Mr Market pick, so it must be a good one. I would buy TOL at $47 and sell at $63

I would like to sell PDC at $30 or higher, but I'll take what I can get.

[IIC]

OK...So I'll never have 73 winners in a row...Heck...7 winners in a row would be a miracle for me the way I trade...But TOL is TOAST IMO....Maybe you missed my little piece last Sunday at Mr. B...But if these TOL brothers are hyping so much...why have they been bailing??? I believe they see the writing on the wall...I could care less about past earnings...What 'ya gonna do tomorrow??? I emailed Bob to let me know next year when Today's MILLION DOLLAR home is on the block for 1/2 price next year...Just my opinion:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TOL

[mrmarket]

OK...So I'll never have 73 winners in a row...Heck...7 winners in a row would be a miracle for me the way I trade...But TOL is TOAST IMO....Maybe you missed my little piece last Sunday at Mr. B...But if these TOL brothers are hyping so much...why have they been bailing??? I believe they see the writing on the wall...I could care less about past earnings...What 'ya gonna do tomorrow??? I emailed Bob to let me know next year when Today's MILLION DOLLAR home is on the block for 1/2 price next year...Just my opinion:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TOL

So you think they are lying about their earnings projections? I still think the prospects of this stock are very binary and very clear. If you are sure the "bubble" is going to burst then you must short this pig. If there is no "bubble", this stock is a screaming buy.

Really, what anyone's technical chart says doesn't mean squat. The chart tells you what the market is doing, and maybe what it will continue to do in the short run. What will actually happen with this stock depends on the conditions listed above.

Sounds like a great options straddle play to me.

[New-born baby]

Aug 26

TOL will bounce today. I don't know how much, but it is going to be a green day for her.

[Websman]

TOL will bounce today. I don't know how much, but it is going to be a green day for her.

It wasn't meant to be, but I think the market took it down with it today. I would be willing to bet that it will recover on Monday.

[skiracer]

What makes you think that an how much?

[Websman]

What makes you think that an how much?

Vulcan intuition...of course I've been wrong many times before.

[skiracer]

Just kidding with you Webs.

[Websman]

Just kidding with you Webs.

I'll drink to that!

[mrmarket]

Insider sales

Why do people focus so much on TOL insider sales?? TOL's stock price is near 50, Senior management was selling TOL shares when its price was 20. That didn't seem to hurt its earnings or its climb in stock price.

Can someone please give me a good explanation why the market then reacts to insider sales, specifically when considering the aforementioned fact?

[New-born baby]

They are not investors

Why do people focus so much on TOL insider sales?? TOL's stock price is near 50, Senior management was selling TOL shares when its price was 20. That didn't seem to hurt its earnings or its climb in stock price.

Can someone please give me a good explanation why the market then reacts to insider sales, specifically when considering the aforementioned fact?

Insider sales means nothing to me. Look at those TOL guys. Sold shares at $20. Looks dumb now, doesn't it?

Jessie Livermore said that insiders make poor investors, even in their own company. They buy when they should sell; sell when they should buy, too. Forget 'em. That was Jessie's view.

If you just pay attention to the chart, you don't care what these guys are doing. The chart will tell you that somebody is selling a boat load of shares.

[mrmarket]

Insider sales means nothing to me. Look at those TOL guys. Sold shares at $20. Looks dumb now, doesn't it?

Jessie Livermore said that insiders make poor investors, even in their own company. They buy when they should sell; sell when they should buy, too. Forget 'em. That was Jessie's view.

If you just pay attention to the chart, you don't care what these guys are doing. The chart will tell you that somebody is selling a boat load of shares.

I agree...but what I want to know is why do so many people use insider sales as a barometer for their investing activity. If insider sales actually meant something, a stock would stay down permanently after the insiders sell. This hardly ever seems to happen.

My conclusion ==> insider sales are have little or no predictive significance when it comes to stock price behavior.

[New-born baby]

Superstition

I agree...but what I want to know is why do so many people use insider sales as a barometer for their investing activity. If insider sales actually meant something, a stock would stay down permanently after the insiders sell. This hardly ever seems to happen.

My conclusion ==> insider sales are have little or no predictive significance when it comes to stock price behavior.

Your conclusion is correct.

Now to answer your question: why do so many people use insider sales as a barometer for their investing activity. ANSWER: there are many people who won't walk down a street if a black cat crosses it ahead of them. They are superstitious. But they believe the black cat is a harbringer of trouble. They are wrong. Likewise, many follow the insider, and it is a sort of superstition. It doesn't work, but people do it. You don't own a rabbit's foot, do you?

[New-born baby]

Investment House Advice

Here's advice from Investment House:

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: The only kind of companies to invest in are the ones that are MAKING MONEY. It's a simple investing truth, but sometimes the simplest truths are the most profound. Which is why, if you don’t have your eyes on a company’s cash position—as we do—you could easily lose your shirt.

[ricofrans]

Here's advice from Investment House:

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: The only kind of companies to invest in are the ones that are MAKING MONEY. It's a simple investing truth, but sometimes the simplest truths are the most profound. Which is why, if you don’t have your eyes on a company’s cash position—as we do—you could easily lose your shirt.

New-bord baby,
Do you think TOL will bounced back after yesterday hit - considering the last earning reports did not boost it up much.

Thanks,