AMLN - comments?

[DSteckler]

Textbook broadening top formation.

[New-born baby]

Not ready for the fork.

Heya guys.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad AMLN news, but the pattern called for today's drop, and it ain't over yet perhaps....
posts relating:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39640&postcount=6494

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39872&postcount=6547

Spike's target hit. And it ain't done yet.

[BobS]

AMLN - About To Soar?

This article, prominently featured in the March 2nd New York Times, is one of the most prominent, definitive, and encouraging pieces that I've seen on Byetta to date. Also, my Endocrinologist feels that it may be time for me to begin taking it, further boosting sales.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/02/business/02drug.html

[jiesen]

Byetta scrips surpass 30,000 this week

The scrips for Symlin and Byetta both are increasing at a stellar rate now. 2006 drug revenues could very well pass $500M, doubling the analyst estimates.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=172318

AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America
this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs
Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta
in its fortieth full week ended March 3 were
30,657, of which 17,599 were new prescriptions
up from 26,387 total and 15,738 new Rxs
respectively in the prior week. With 1-month
starter packs being provided to key prescribers,
we believe that these numbers underestimate true
patient starts.
Summary
Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ended
March 3 were 2,694 with new Rxs of 1,274, up
from 2,405 total and 1,142 new Rxs in the prior
week. Overall, more than 38,000 new
prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its
first nine months of launch.

[NY4Ever]

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Biopharmaceutical company Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday it plans to sell up to 9.8 million shares via a public offering.

The company filed with regulators to sell 8.5 million shares and has granted the underwriters the option to buy an additional 1.3 million shares.

[New-born baby]

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Biopharmaceutical company Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday it plans to sell up to 9.8 million shares via a public offering.

The company filed with regulators to sell 8.5 million shares and has granted the underwriters the option to buy an additional 1.3 million shares.

Time to buy puts.

[jiesen]

I dunno about that NBB. I just spoke to a friend of mine at AMLN (bumped into him at lunch) and he seemed pretty upbeat about his company adding $450M or so to its cash pile. I think they'll be doing some pretty amazing things with that money (as well as the other half-billion in revenues they could rake in this year).

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

[jiesen]

Bull case for AMLN

I'm aware that my shares in AMLN have increased in price more than double from where I've entered, so it may be time to take another look to see if maybe it's become overvalued, right? Well, who am I kidding, I'm never selling this stock! I'm in love! (ok, ok hopefully I'm not) But anyway, someone is telling me that earnings and revenues are declining at AMLN, the future looks bleak, and that gross margins are dismal. Well, I'd like to address each point, but will start with the easiest one first. Obviously, I'm biased from a long perspective, so I'll take the job of presenting the bull case for AMLN, and I welcome anyone to provide the data that supports the bear case.

First, look at the chart from the previous post, showing the scrip numbers. Drug revenue estimates based on prescriptions are as follows:
2Q05: 1M
3Q05: 22M
4Q05: 56M
1Q06: 93M
2Q06: 120M+ (even if there's no prescription growth through the rest of the quarter)

These look like growing revenues to me, what about you? Is there anyone that believes AMLN will post lower drug revenues for 2006 than they did in 2005?

Next up will be gross margins... stay tuned!

[Lyehopper]

AMLN Showing Strength today....

AMLN is looking pretty good here to me. Plus I like the group right now too. Should be a good one to trade long here. Someone post some TA and an opinion.... As for me, I think the chart looks fantastic.

[peanuts]

AMLN is looking pretty good here to me. Plus I like the group right now too. Should be a good one to trade long here. Someone post some TA and an opinion.... As for me, I think the chart looks fantastic.

Looks good to me also, Lye. Nice pick.

Looks like everything is pointing up. I might take a little nibble tommorrow if it follows through


glad you covered your short on steel
the future market for it is a big deal

[jiesen]

Ok so it's taken me a while, but...

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Announces Conversion of All Outstanding 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2008
Thursday August 24, 4:05 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060824/lath061a.html?.v=1

SAN DIEGO, Aug. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMLN - News) today announced that in connection with the previously announced redemption of its 2.25% convertible senior notes due June 30, 2008, issued in 2003, holders of all of the outstanding notes converted their notes into shares of Amylin's common stock prior to the August 24, 2006 redemption date. The aggregate outstanding principal amount of the notes was $175 million. As a result of these conversions, 5,377,148 shares of common stock were issued to the note holders. The note holders were also entitled to a make-whole payment equal to $112.94 per $1,000 principal value of the converted notes less interest actually paid. Amylin elected to pay the make-whole payment for the converted notes in shares of Amylin's common stock, amounting to an additional approximately 180,000 shares issued. In connection with the conversions, Amylin paid approximately $550 in cash, representing cash paid in lieu of fractional shares.

and from the company's latest quarterly report:

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001104659-06-052015&Type=HTML

7. Convertible Senior Notes
In June and July 2003, the Company issued the 2003 Notes in a private placement, which have an aggregate principal amount of $175 million and are due June 30, 2008. The 2003 Notes have been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, to permit registered resale of the 2003 Notes and of the common stock issuable upon conversion of the 2003 Notes. The 2003 Notes bear interest at a rate of 2.25% per year, payable in cash semi-annually, and are convertible into a total of up to 5.4 million shares of common stock at a conversion price of approximately $32.55 per share, subject to customary adjustments such as stock dividends and other dilutive transactions.

The 2003 Notes are redeemable at the Company’s option in whole or in part at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed plus accrued and unpaid interest to the redemption date if the closing price of the Company’s common stock has exceeded $45.57 for at least 20 trading days in any consecutive 30-day trading period. At the time of any such redemption, the Company will also make an additional payment on the redeemed 2003 Notes, referred to as a make-whole payment, equal to $112.94 per $1,000 principal amount of the 2003 Notes, less interest actually paid or accrued but unpaid on the 2003 Notes. The Company may elect to make this payment in cash or shares of its common stock. On July 24, 2006, the Company announced that it is calling for the redemption of all its outstanding 2003 Notes (Note 9).

In April 2004, the Company issued the 2004 Notes, which have an aggregate principal amount of $200 million, and are due April 15, 2011, in a private placement. The 2004 Notes have been registered under the Securities Act to permit registered resale of the 2004 Notes and of the common stock issuable upon conversion of the 2004 Notes. The 2004 Notes bear interest at 2.5% per year, payable in cash semi-annually and are convertible into a total of up to 5.8 million shares of common stock at a conversion price of $34.35 per share, subject to customary adjustments for stock dividends and other dilutive transactions. The Company may not redeem the 2004 Notes prior to maturity.

Upon a change in control, the holders of the 2003 and 2004 Notes may elect to require the Company to re-purchase the 2003 or 2004 Notes. The Company may elect to pay the purchase price in common stock instead of cash, or a combination thereof. If paid with common stock the number of shares of common stock a holder will receive will be valued at 95% of the closing prices of our common stock for the five-day trading period ending on the third day before the purchase date.

What this means is that AMLN's long-term debt is now essentially retired. Half of it was redeemed by the company (about $200M worth) in stock yesterday, and the other half is essentially now a call on the stock at $34 good until 2011.

Yes, there is dilution with this, but getting the debt off of the balance sheet is a very good thing. AMLN is flush with cash now, and the $45 stock price gives them license to print as much cash as they need for the short term, until profit can get to where they need to be to fully support their pipeline. And get there it will. My revenue projection of $500M this year is still very much attainable:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

(why yes, I am having trouble sleeping tonight...)

[jiesen]

and now some fun with gross margins (or HOW AMLN WORKS!)

I did say I'd get to this eventually, and so here's a little fun with the latest income figures.

From the 6 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 185M ($30.8M/month)
Cost=24M
Gross Margin=87%
Counting the 147M SG&A cost that's a 21% margin.

From the 3 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 109M ($36.3M/month)
Cost=15M
Gross Margin=86%
Counting the 63M SG&A cost that's a 28% margin.

Already you can see the trend here, that with the increase in revenues/month, the margins increase. Gross margin will increase slightly (after that hiccup with the cartridge shorage of course) with economy of scale, and it doesn't get much better than a 90% margin!

But the margin after SG&A is more interesting, as it's heading to 30% and above. When AMLN is pulling in 30% of $1B of revenue, that's $300M to (fully!) fund R&D, which comes right back to the company in the expanding pipeline of new and better stuff.

With 2 products of enormous potential on the market already, more to come, and practically 0 debt, sky's the limit for this baby.

[New-born baby]

I did say I'd get to this eventually, and so here's a little fun with the latest income figures.

From the 6 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 185M ($30.8M/month)
Cost=24M
Gross Margin=87%
Counting the 147M SG&A cost that's a 21% margin.

From the 3 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 109M ($36.3M/month)
Cost=15M
Gross Margin=86%
Counting the 63M SG&A cost that's a 28% margin.

Already you can see the trend here, that with the increase in revenues/month, the margins increase. Gross margin will increase slightly (after that hiccup with the cartridge shorage of course) with economy of scale, and it doesn't get much better than a 90% margin!

But the margin after SG&A is more interesting, as it's heading to 30% and above. When AMLN is pulling in 30% of $1B of revenue, that's $300M to (fully!) fund R&D, which comes right back to the company in the expanding pipeline of new and better stuff.

With 2 products of enormous potential on the market already, more to come, and practically 0 debt, sky's the limit for this baby.

So give us a price target, Mr. Genius
BTW, I own AMLN, so make a reasonable estimate, will ya?

[jiesen]

So give us a price target, Mr. Genius
BTW, I own AMLN, so make a reasonable estimate, will ya?

Well, if AMLN jumped to $75 next week, I'd probably sell mine. But I think it's likely to track the weekly scrip numbers for Byetta pretty closely for the short term (meaning months instead of years)- that is, a 45k Byetta number = $45 stock price (+/- 10% or so). And I believe we should hit 50-55k in the next month or two. Within a year 100k/week will be written for Byetta, and -you guessed it- AMLN should trade at $100/shr. I only expect to see a falling price (long run) if the scrips stabilize below 80k, because that would probably not leave AMLN with enough money to complete all of its development plans without some significant equity financing. But I think 100k should be easily doable if not by next year, then 2008.

So, while my goal here is to hold AMLN pretty much forever, if you must pick a target, you could try making it a multiple (maybe 1.4x or 1.6x) the weekly scrip# and sell at that point, to buy back when it pulls back to 1x again (or below for further margin of safety). That's just a suggestion, and for short term trading on AMLN, I would defer to you and your charts- you have demonstrated your ability to make those calls. When I try to time my entries and exits (like my POTW blunder out of AMLN these past few weeks) I end up burned more often than not. Also, I sold half when it spiked to $27 in after hours way back thinking I could get it back on a pullback that never came. I'm not risking that happening again, not with AMLN.

Thinking about an exit strategy here, I could see $200-250 being a reasonable target for 10 years out or so. But I'll have to take a look at more sales data as it comes out for a while first, and also see how Byetta LAR plays out.

[New-born baby]

Amln

Jiesen,
I am selling out of the money calls, and as the stock moves South, I cover those calls. Then as the stock moves up, I again sell the calls. Example: AMLN was about $46.50 the other day, and I sold the JAN $45 for $7.20. AMLN pulled back for three days, and those calls dropped down to $5.90. Covered them and I am looking to resell those calls again, though this time I am looking at the $50 strike. IF AMLN climbs to $50 and never looks back, I will still be happy with my profits. But AMLN moves around alot, and I like that, because the options are pretty hefty.

Thanks for recommending this stock back when it was $21.