Market Watch

[IIC]

I think we're in for a significatn upday tommorow.

Well...Mr. Optimistic...I hope you are right...But the Nikkei is down over 113 pts and the Topix is dn over 13 right now on no significant news...Hope they can bounce...I'm counting on it...DougNikkeiNikkei

[mimo_100]

Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles

Here is a link to an interesting report on Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles.

http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html

This isn't a Presidential election...but look at this up thru Feb 2006:

[Gwhiz]

Opinions on where the market goes from here?


Chaikin Money Flow has been dropping significantly for the dow the last few weeks.

[jiesen]

I think the market is headed lower from here (maybe not for a little while, but eventually).

[Runner]

I think the market is headed lower from here (maybe not for a little while, but eventually).

I'm Not the smartest guy in the shed but the current trend is in question right now.

[Gwhiz]

What are the chances that the market is putting in a broadening top?

[lemonjello]

Don't remember where I saw it, but some EWers are predicting a 5th wave up from here.

It looks pretty week for me tho.

[riverbabe]

Marty Chenard Stock Timing Update 12/15/06

Friday, December 15th. ...
1. The VIX went below 9.88 yesterday, down to 9.64. 9.88 was the all time low depicting the highest trader confidence level the market has seen so far. The VIX closed at 9.87 or .01 below the all time low. A CNBC commentator said that "There is no end to this market, it will keep going on forever".

That's like saying that you will live forever, you will have your job forever, and you will be in good health forever. No more market pullbacks, no more market corrections, the Fed just won't allow it. The reality is, that if the Fed continues to expand M3 at its current spectacular rate of increase, the overflow into the market and the economy will be positive. Over the long term time, the market always seeks balance and you can't create a new economic world where there are only ups and no downs. It is like stretching an elastic. One of two things happens. If you stretch it too far, it is going to break. If you stretch it and let it go, it will go back to its old shape ... it won't become a bigger better elastic that can be stretched for ever.

2. On the short term, M3 and liquidity inflows have been huge and occurring at a high expansionary rate. The Fed is not going to let Americans and the retail sector have a bad stock market experience before Christmas or maybe even before New Year's. - Our Super Accelerator Model for the S&P is still in an Up Condition for the S&P 500, and an Up Condition for the NASDAQ 100 ... although the NASDAQ is developing increased risk due to a Super Accelerator cross over. It still has a positive S.T. Accelerator, so its still an up condition at a higher risk level.

3. I spoke with an executive from one of the large DOW 30 companies and he said that in 2007, the company was going to face the toughest year it has seen in the last 7 years. That sounds more like they are expecting an economic slow down rather than the goldilocks scenario we are hearing on TV.

4. Do you remember when Israel raided Osirak to stop Iraq from becoming a nuclear power? One source told me that he fully expected Israel to attack an Iranian nuclear development site in 2007, and he expects that it will likely occur before June of 2007. That would create a lot of market fear, especially if such a conflict accelerates in the region.

5. Do make the effort to look at Chart 8 today. The chart shows the URSA Short Fund has been traveling through a 3 year channel. We have hit the bottom channel support twice with the URSA then moving up, which corresponds with the market moving down. If you look at the chart, you will see that the current URSA resistance line reaches the channel's support on January 1st. That gives us a very strong possibility that the first week of January will give us a market reversal to the downside.

6. As you will see in today's first chart, the VIX broke its support and reached an all time low yesterday. It was enough of a move to turn the VIX-MACD below its signal line and open the market to more up movement before the end of the year. *** What didn't disappear with the VIX's move was its MACD negative Divergence with the market which historically always precedes a market down move. That says, in spite of the lower appearing risk levels of the VIX, the up trending divergence on the VIX-MACD is saying that risk levels are rising.

7. Shorter term, and day traders: The Super Accelerator is now at a Medium/High Strength and the risk for sharp down days is now totally dependent on when M3 and foreign liquidity levels go into contraction. * The S&P Super Accelerator has been in a "Buy Signal" since July 28th. and if the S.T. Accelerator falls below the signal line, that will cause a Sell Signal and end the up move condition. If you have been long on the S&P, continue to reduce your exposure as we approach January 1st. The NASDAQ's Super Accelerator is trending down so the NASDAQ is weaker than the S&P 500. For now, it is likely that the market will stay positive until the end of the year, and we still suggest that you continue to reduce your exposure before January 1st.

8. Yesterday, The % of Stocks with Upward Strength vs. the % with Downward Weakness moved sharply lower. It remains above the August 15th. horizontal line marking the beginning of the rally. The Ratio of the % of Upward Stocks minus the % of Downward Stocks moved sharply down from 1.89 to 1 ... to 2.15 to 1. (This was a net 1.15 advantage ... A zero (0.00) reading on the chart below indicates a zero advantage with a 1 to 1 ratio.) *** The ratio trending during the last 15 days was: 2.85 (the high), 2.80, 1.45, 1.61, 2.32, 2.54, 2.14, 3.20, 3.09, 2.64, 2.43, 2.45 and 2.15 to 1. Note that it made a peak on October 16th. and has remained lower since then.

9. The Short Term Liquidity Flow - Daily is showing spectacular amounts of M3 and Foreign liquidity inflows coming into the market. - The Institutional "Shift of Direction" reacted with a continued upside move. *** The Amount of Short Term liquidity gain/loss inflows that effect's the market's ability to sustain a short term up moved turned up yesterday on the liquidity inflows. It is now both in positive territory and moving up.

10. We issued a Sell recommendation on Wednesday, Sept. 6th. and we are in cash for longer term conservative investors. The market is continuing to show indications of a topping process.
______________________________________________


Please click this link to go to your Analyses and Recommendations
and Login at: http://www.stocktiming.com/

Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com

StockTiming.com
80 Botany Drive
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

(Courtesy Link: This is your free Reference link for www.StockTiming.net where you can get up to date daily stock market news with direct links to Bloomberg, Marketwatch, Motley Fool, the Wall Street Journal ... the AMEX, CBOE, CBOT, CME, NASD, NASDAQ, NYSE, and the Russell 2000 exchanges.)

[mimo_100]

Friday, December 15th. ...
1. The VIX went below 9.88 yesterday, down to 9.64. 9.88 was the all time low depicting the highest trader confidence level the market has seen so far. The VIX closed at 9.87 or .01 below the all time low. A CNBC commentator said that "There is no end to this market, it will keep going on forever".

That's like saying that you will live forever, you will have your job forever, and you will be in good health forever. No more market pullbacks, no more market corrections, the Fed just won't allow it. The reality is, that if the Fed continues to expand M3 at its current spectacular rate of increase, the overflow into the market and the economy will be positive. Over the long term time, the market always seeks balance and you can't create a new economic world where there are only ups and no downs. It is like stretching an elastic. One of two things happens. If you stretch it too far, it is going to break. If you stretch it and let it go, it will go back to its old shape ... it won't become a bigger better elastic that can be stretched for ever.

2. On the short term, M3 and liquidity inflows have been huge and occurring at a high expansionary rate. The Fed is not going to let Americans and the retail sector have a bad stock market experience before Christmas or maybe even before New Year's. - Our Super Accelerator Model for the S&P is still in an Up Condition for the S&P 500, and an Up Condition for the NASDAQ 100 ... although the NASDAQ is developing increased risk due to a Super Accelerator cross over. It still has a positive S.T. Accelerator, so its still an up condition at a higher risk level.

3. I spoke with an executive from one of the large DOW 30 companies and he said that in 2007, the company was going to face the toughest year it has seen in the last 7 years. That sounds more like they are expecting an economic slow down rather than the goldilocks scenario we are hearing on TV.

4. Do you remember when Israel raided Osirak to stop Iraq from becoming a nuclear power? One source told me that he fully expected Israel to attack an Iranian nuclear development site in 2007, and he expects that it will likely occur before June of 2007. That would create a lot of market fear, especially if such a conflict accelerates in the region.

5. Do make the effort to look at Chart 8 today. The chart shows the URSA Short Fund has been traveling through a 3 year channel. We have hit the bottom channel support twice with the URSA then moving up, which corresponds with the market moving down. If you look at the chart, you will see that the current URSA resistance line reaches the channel's support on January 1st. That gives us a very strong possibility that the first week of January will give us a market reversal to the downside.

6. As you will see in today's first chart, the VIX broke its support and reached an all time low yesterday. It was enough of a move to turn the VIX-MACD below its signal line and open the market to more up movement before the end of the year. *** What didn't disappear with the VIX's move was its MACD negative Divergence with the market which historically always precedes a market down move. That says, in spite of the lower appearing risk levels of the VIX, the up trending divergence on the VIX-MACD is saying that risk levels are rising.

7. Shorter term, and day traders: The Super Accelerator is now at a Medium/High Strength and the risk for sharp down days is now totally dependent on when M3 and foreign liquidity levels go into contraction. * The S&P Super Accelerator has been in a "Buy Signal" since July 28th. and if the S.T. Accelerator falls below the signal line, that will cause a Sell Signal and end the up move condition. If you have been long on the S&P, continue to reduce your exposure as we approach January 1st. The NASDAQ's Super Accelerator is trending down so the NASDAQ is weaker than the S&P 500. For now, it is likely that the market will stay positive until the end of the year, and we still suggest that you continue to reduce your exposure before January 1st.

8. Yesterday, The % of Stocks with Upward Strength vs. the % with Downward Weakness moved sharply lower. It remains above the August 15th. horizontal line marking the beginning of the rally. The Ratio of the % of Upward Stocks minus the % of Downward Stocks moved sharply down from 1.89 to 1 ... to 2.15 to 1. (This was a net 1.15 advantage ... A zero (0.00) reading on the chart below indicates a zero advantage with a 1 to 1 ratio.) *** The ratio trending during the last 15 days was: 2.85 (the high), 2.80, 1.45, 1.61, 2.32, 2.54, 2.14, 3.20, 3.09, 2.64, 2.43, 2.45 and 2.15 to 1. Note that it made a peak on October 16th. and has remained lower since then.

9. The Short Term Liquidity Flow - Daily is showing spectacular amounts of M3 and Foreign liquidity inflows coming into the market. - The Institutional "Shift of Direction" reacted with a continued upside move. *** The Amount of Short Term liquidity gain/loss inflows that effect's the market's ability to sustain a short term up moved turned up yesterday on the liquidity inflows. It is now both in positive territory and moving up.

10. We issued a Sell recommendation on Wednesday, Sept. 6th. and we are in cash for longer term conservative investors. The market is continuing to show indications of a topping process.
______________________________________________


Please click this link to go to your Analyses and Recommendations
and Login at: http://www.stocktiming.com/

Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com

StockTiming.com
80 Botany Drive
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

(Courtesy Link: This is your free Reference link for www.StockTiming.net where you can get up to date daily stock market news with direct links to Bloomberg, Marketwatch, Motley Fool, the Wall Street Journal ... the AMEX, CBOE, CBOT, CME, NASD, NASDAQ, NYSE, and the Russell 2000 exchanges.)

RiverB,

Where is the M3 data coming from? We know that "...As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Federal Reserve. The other three money supply measures will continue to be provided in detail. On March 7th, 2006, Congressman Ron Paul introduced H.R. 4892 in an effort to reverse this change."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

[riverbabe]

RiverB,

Where is the M3 data coming from? We know that "...As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Federal Reserve. The other three money supply measures will continue to be provided in detail. On March 7th, 2006, Congressman Ron Paul introduced H.R. 4892 in an effort to reverse this change."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

What you say is absolutely true. He infers it from another number (M4? M2?) that is published and mirrors M3. I'll try to look up his archived posts and let you know what it is.

[riverbabe]

I found this in the archive re. M3

Tuesday, October 3rd. ---

Yesterday, I posted the Long Term Liquidity study relative to the 2001-2002 Bear Market and past 2nd. year Presidential cycles.
A very fascinating study showing a real difference from past Presidential cycles. This is the Link to the study: Long Term Liquidity

Our logs showed that only half of our subscribers looked at the study, so here is the salient point:
A. "I went back to 1998 on Long Term Liquidity and looked at 1998, 2002, and now ... which are all 2nd. year presidential cycle times.
1998 and 2002 showed that Long Term Liquidity was trending down, and in negative territory. So far, long term liquidity is positive and "trending up",
not down. With the Fed not reporting M3, liquidity why is it contrary to past cycles? And with the Mid Term Elections on November 7th. just around the corner,
this is a nice Republican advantage to have. Is this an M3 and election coincidence?"

B. After the study, a subscriber emailed the following that I thought was interesting:
Perhaps the answer lies in the following that Richard Russell posted on his site this week: “My pen-pal, Adrian Van Eck from sunny Maine, is an
old hand at deciphering what the Fed is doing. In fact, I suspect that Adrian knows more about what's going on at the Fed than most of the people
who are working at the Fed. Adrian writes an advisory called The Money-Forecast Letter (800 219 1333). In his latest mailing, Adrian lets us in on the secret that Greenspan tried to hide when he shut the window on the M-3 broad money supply figures. Adrian did an exhaustive study, and he
learned that historically, M-3 runs at roughly 150% of M-2.And we still receive the M-2 statistics. Adrian writes that M-3 "is actually up by some two-thirds of a TRILLION dollars since the summer of 2005." He adds, "If I carried this back to mid-2004 I am quite sure you and I would soon realize that during the entire period of so-called 'money-tightening,' the Fed
was pumping ONE TRILLION NEW DOLLARS of new money into the US banking system and on to American businesses and consumers." Ah, I thought, so
this is what's happening. And all that stuff about halting inflation and raising short rates is so much pure baloney.” What the Fed is doing is continuing to
flood the system with liquidity. Is that why the Fed is convinced that there's a soft-landing for housing in our future? Is that why the stock market has been
clawing its way higher, even without confirmation by the Transports? Is that why oil is still trading above 60 bucks a barrel? Is that why gold is climbing back
into the 600s? Writes Van Eck -- "I have never known the US economy to enter a recession when money supply was growing fast and interest rates were
falling." ” If Van Eck is right, we may really see a so-called soft landing.

[Runner]

Here is an interesting chart.

The top window:
A 2 day line chart (Yellow) of the S&P500
Green line stock percentage above their 40 day PMA
Red line is the RS of the 40 Day PMA

Middle Window (Key)
RS Compqx with 13 period MA

Bottom window
MACD/STO

This chart does a pretty good job of trend direction and turning points in the market.
First notice the huge red spikes in the top window. This indicates a possible turning point off a bottom. The middle window is the signal line. This window has an inverse relation with the top. In other words when this indicator moves up the S&P moves down. When it moves down the S&P moves up.

Notice the huge red spike in the RS indicator. This foretold to be on the look out to go long. Once this spike occurs you want the red RS indicator to move back to the bottom of the window. Then look for the crossing in the middle window to cross down through the 13 MA. This signal occurred on 8/15/06. Now I place more weight on the dotted MA in the middle window more so then the crossing. Once the MA begins to turn the possibility of a new trend is high.

Chart 1 8/15/06


Now notice the correlation as I move it to current date. 12/07/06 flagged a caution signal as the indicators in the middle window begin to hook back up. Notice the red indicator in the top window beginning to spike. Not to also mention the 40-day PMA is spiking down. This all flags a warning to longs and although the RS indicator in the middle window has crossed back down I still place more weight on the dotted 13 MA.



Just some more of my madness but what a jumbled mess....

[Runner]

Here is an interesting chart.

The top window:
A 2 day line chart (Yellow) of the S&P500
Green line stock percentage above their 40 day PMA
Red line is the RS of the 40 Day PMA

Middle Window (Key)
RS Compqx with 13 period MA

Bottom window
MACD/STO

This chart does a pretty good job of trend direction and turning points in the market.
First notice the huge red spikes in the top window. This indicates a possible turning point off a bottom. The middle window is the signal line. This window has an inverse relation with the top. In other words when this indicator moves up the S&P moves down. When it moves down the S&P moves up.

Notice the huge red spike in the RS indicator. This foretold to be on the look out to go long. Once this spike occurs you want the red RS indicator to move back to the bottom of the window. Then look for the crossing in the middle window to cross down through the 13 MA. This signal occurred on 8/15/06. Now I place more weight on the dotted MA in the middle window more so then the crossing. Once the MA begins to turn the possibility of a new trend is high.

Chart 1 8/15/06


Now notice the correlation as I move it to current date. 12/07/06 flagged a caution signal as the indicators in the middle window begin to hook back up. Notice the red indicator in the top window beginning to spike. Not to also mention the 40-day PMA is spiking down. This all flags a warning to longs and although the RS indicator in the middle window has crossed back down I still place more weight on the dotted 13 MA.



Just some more of my madness but what a jumbled mess....

Update but what do I no about this madness..haha

[jiesen]

dkReport- an interesting post from the AMLN IV board

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd....pt=msg&mn=7855

dkReport 3/21/07


Spring is usually busy for me, but 2007 has been atypically hectic. It's been two months since I've posted, and I want to thank everyone for their e-mails and PM's. Rest assured, my sabbatical was merely an illusion: I've followed the market every day, maintaining my normal routine. I just haven't had the time or energy to write about it.


In my last post (Jan 2, investors were waiting for the bears to follow-through and give the stock market its first real correction in six months. As it turned out, investors would wait another full month (20 trading days) -- and 4.1% of further gains -- before the market finally obliged and sold off.


Then, in just five sessions, the NASDAQ tumbled almost 8%. Triggered by the infamous 9% down day in China on Feb 27, the US pullback sent volatility soaring and bearish sentiment skyrocketing. Last week, bearish readings at lowrisk.com hit a 9-month high. Blogger sentiment at Ticker Sense pegged the needle, posting the highest levels of bearishness ever recorded! Put buying exploded, newsletters turned bearish, QID volume ballooned, the VIX doubled, and "carry trade" and "subprime" reached pop jargon status.


Curiously, while all of this was happening, the SPX shed just 6.8% and the Dow just 6.6%. This was an unusual disconnect, made all the more strange by the price of copper. As the world-wide markets fell apart, copper rallied an eye-popping 17%. Since bottoming in early Feb, copper is up 28%.


One of the market's most famous tricks is to move higher with the least number of investors participating. It happened in August, and it happened again last week. Even after a dramatic, mother-of-all Reversal Tuesday and a double-bottom, the vast majority of investors were unconvinced. Over the next four days, the mainstream press obsessed about real estate and the Fed, and investors prepped for new lows. Meanwhile, subprimes found fresh capital, the Shanghai climbed back to its highs and shrewd investors drove 4 days and 3.2% of low-volume short-covering.


Which brings us to today. For the record, the 2007 vernal equinox also saw a classic, Day 6 IBD follow-through. Volume shot up 24%, most of it in the final 1 3/4 hours of trading. Officially, we're now in a confirmed rally, though it's still early and many things can (and will) happen. The financials were very involved today, which was the single most important thing about today's action.


If this rally holds, the increased volatility means that it will likely favor high-flyers. Stocks that suffered the least and sit near their highs are favored to be the leaders moving forward. Buy strength and sell weakness. That said, these are merely tendencies -- not laws -- and powerful exceptions will emerge.


Finally, remember that the stock market is NOT the US economy. In fact, it's not even a very good proxy for it. All of the US economic woes are very real, but the US market is another thing altogether, more global than ever, with its own rules and rhythms. This is why the market can rally 2% on big volume, while the economy still faces grave uncertainties. Listen to the pundits, but trust the market.


Thanks to all the great posters that have showed up over the past eight weeks. The board's a better place for everyone's efforts.


TOF, a special thanks to you for all of your work. I know it takes time, so thanks.


I'm now swamped with projects in four time zones on three continents. I'll do my best to check in when I can.


End of month, end of quarter, and three more weeks to fund 2006 retirement accounts. Maybe not tomorrow, but the markets move higher from here. How long it continues is another thing altogether.


best


dk


We're back in Snap's famous box -LOL. Though a yawning gap lies just above, getting out of this 5-month band of congestion is the real test.