Market Watch

[New-born baby]

Energy's Woes

Runner,
Energy stocks got pounded today. XOM lost over $2 per share. NG is over $13 per million BTU and still natural gas stocks dumped. So what's your take? XLE was hammered down. Coal stock BTU was up $6 yesterday and down $6 today. I was surprised to see ACI bust the $70 resistance level yesterday with such power that it hit $73, only to finish today near $68.90. Blow off top? Talk to me Runner! SKI! Is this the top for oil/energy?

[dmk112]

Runner,
Energy stocks got pounded today. XOM lost over $2 per share. NG is over $13 per million BTU and still natural gas stocks dumped. So what's your take? XLE was hammered down. Coal stock BTU was up $6 yesterday and down $6 today. I was surprised to see ACI bust the $70 resistance level yesterday with such power that it hit $73, only to finish today near $68.90. Blow off top? Talk to me Runner! SKI! Is this the top for oil/energy?

NB, where have you been? I've been saying OIL topped way back, I've been short for the last week now and it's working so far. I think this is an intermediate correction rather than a short term... They've got some work to do to say the least...same goes for the utilities..

[skiracer]

NB,
Yesterdays exhuberance ran into reality and resistance lines. Last Thursday the S&P 500 hit a multi-month low but pushed off it and Monday's bounce came on below average volume and not to much umph behind it. What remained of yesterdays bounce and bullish exhuberance just didn't have the strength to last after this mornings mild push up. The bears took over convincingly after the bulls could show no follow thru support of yesterdays bounce. The S&P 500 is now right at last years lows of 1190 to 1199 range which also coincides with the 200 day average of 1195 to 1199. The Aug./Sept. 2005 lows of 1200/1205 range are right above those resistance lines so there is alot of resistance to break through. I don't have any answers except that it doesn't look as if it is going to be easy to support any bullish run up. Not saying that it couldn't happen but there are a few brick walls in the way.
As far as energy is concerned I don't think this is a peak. Things turn on a dime an any negative news, like a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, could drive it way up tomorrow or by the end of this week. To be honest it makes my head hurt trying to make sense of it all right now. I keep seeing good stocks way oversold which makes me think we could get a decent bounce and reversal but everytime it breaks to the upside the strength doesn't hold and we fall back. There is alot of overhead resistance right now and you can't escape the fact that it is going to be hard to break through that. Like you said with PETS yesterday. Everytime it breaks to the upside it can't hold it and falls back on someone unloading into the temporary strength which pulls the bottom out of it. Well the same thing seems to be happening with the markets in general. It doesn't seem that there is any underlying strength there even with alot of oversold stocks that seem to be at decent prices. I can only say to trade what you see and not what you think. Perplexing but there is a safe place to be and that is on the sidelines in cash until we get some signal. Funny but even in what appears to be a downtrend and presenting shorting opportunities it still doesn't feel real safe to jump into shorting right now even though that seems to be the trend. It's a good time to be very astute in jumping into any setups either long or short.
And I would add that all the major indices and the Dia, Spy, QQQQ etc. are banging up against their Aug./Sept. lows, their 200 days, and the Fib. 38% retracement or right around one of their Fib. retracement lines. Good night Gracie.

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Men

DMK, SKi,
Yes DMK, you've been saying OIL is through for awhile, but I have a hard time believing it. I just saw on the Wall Street Journal online that somebody dumped a large block of shares and crushed the price. XOM has a price target of $48- at this time.

Ski, Thank you for your viewpoint. I can't believe we are going to see $40 oil again. And the selling says that $40 oil is where its all headed. The rule of thumb is that a barrel of oil trades for the price of one share of XOM, so . . . .

Best to you on PETS and all others you may own. I watched PETS all day today, and just got through checking the three year charts. One major diffo between Spike and me at this time is that he is bullish, and I am very bearish on the market.

[skiracer]

Does anyone really believe oil will go to under $55 a barrel or in an extreme case to under $50 a barrel. If so please give an explanation of how and why. I would be amazed to see it go under $55 after the recent highs.
Regarding XOM. Take a close look at the weekly. It hasn't broken thru support at $55 range or it's 50 day average either. Whoever was behind that large block yesterday brought it down some but what makes you think it will keep going down other than there will be a large amount of overhead supply available now but $48 seems pretty low. It hasn't seen $50 since the beginning of the year. And remember someone bought those 24 mil.shares at between $59 and $56

[Runner]

The way I see the chart on XOM is all that bot this year are getting very nervous. Those who bot in the beginning of the year are watching the profits slip and thus more likely to help add fuel to the fire. Those currently holding from June are holding in the red. I see 52.79 getting tested in the near term. Temp support off daily has failed. This was from the June time frame. The wide range bars off the daily tells the story of a reversal. Damage has been done to this chart and Bearish waves are crashing into the bay.

[New-born baby]

Here's an example

Does anyone really believe oil will go to under $55 a barrel or in an extreme case to under $50 a barrel. If so please give an explanation of how and why. I would be amazed to see it go under $55 after the recent highs.
Regarding XOM. Take a close look at the weekly. It hasn't broken thru support at $55 range or it's 50 day average either. Whoever was behind that large block yesterday brought it down some but what makes you think it will keep going down other than there will be a large amount of overhead supply available now but $48 seems pretty low. It hasn't seen $50 since the beginning of the year. And remember someone bought those 24 mil.shares at between $59 and $56

Ski,
I can't believe it either. But yet, the chart is saying "down she goes."
That's why I am asking you all: I have a hard, hard time believing the chart. Still, my policy is to believe the chart and forget what I think. Arguing with the market is a bad, bad policy (imho).
Here's an example of some who believe that XOM is going to $48 or lower:

[New-born baby]

West Texas Intermediate Crude

Ski,
West Texas intermediate Crude, the preferred crude on the market, has a price objective of $54.

[New-born baby]

Excellent

The way I see the chart on XOM is all that bot this year are getting very nervous. Those who bot in the beginning of the year are watching the profits slip and thus more likely to help add fuel to the fire. Those currently holding from June are holding in the red. I see 52.79 getting tested in the near term. Temp support off daily has failed. This was from the June time frame. The wide range bars off the daily tells the story of a reversal. Damage has been done to this chart and Bearish waves are crashing into the bay.

Runner,
I like your analogy. You must be an excellent story teller.

[New-born baby]

A Look at the Large Cap

Those of you bullish on the Large Caps could examine this chart:



Those of you bullish on the small caps could take a look at this chart:

[dmk112]

NB... Exactly the charts I was looking at.. This rally today is meaningless at this point (until the naz & spx get over the resistance), if they do break reasistance tomorrow then we have something to talkabout. Until then I'm still a bear! The test will be tomorrow for the Naz as 2100 is approaching which is really strong resistance.

Although I did like the action today unlike the previous days...nice intraday reversal on volume.

Let's see what happens tomorrow...

[Runner]

Following have shown an increase in RS over last 3 days:



Movers since 10/13/05 shows some power

[spikefader]

hehe guys; the cat is among the pigeons

Trendline smendline NB! hehe ahhh, I'm kiddin'.. sorta. I've seen plenty of rallies after simple T/L breaks. Yes, it's a basis to look for support and resistance, but don't base your market bias just off a trendline break or a series of fanned trendline breaks. I can see in that chart plenty of times a break of a trendline was met immediatly with a rally to new highs. It's a lot more complicated than that!



And check out the pattern that IS there right now; bullish broadening. Right in the middle of heavy support. If this rally is real we could see the return to highs, break of resistance and run to the target line. Not saying all this will come to pass. I am merely showing you guys there IS a reason to be bullish. Sure, that's a potential double top back there. Sure, this could be just profit-taking rally. But it ain't no clearly bearish picture yet. There is still plenty of potenial for upside. Now show me a chart with a dirty fat major channel bust, or reverse boom down through a lower channel, and I'll be all over a bearish bias. But those things just aren't in the chart. In fact, they are coming off channel longs in a bullish fashion. So that being what it is, one must give the valid TA that IS in there the chance to succeed until it is broken and shown to be invalid.

[skiracer]

I have to give Spike credit on his QQQQ play today. I have my own thoughts on the market direction but regardless of what may or may not happen in the next few days or week his play today was a good one.



I wouldn't be using the Nasdaq for any forecasting right now as it is heavily tech laden and just isn't a good indicator right now. The S&P 500 is a much better indicator to base a judgement for direction. I wouldn't be forecasting a specific trend in one direction or another after today's action. It was heading down this morning an reversed on the news of the Fed calling for a strengthening economy. In my opinion they're a bunch of douche bags and manipulators an aren't very good at that either. But the markets are fickle and move on the slightest bit of news nowadays.
Oil (OIH) moves up 2.73 and is that good for the stock market and the economy in general but yet the market moves up 120 points. The S&P closed right at it's Aug/Sept lows today and still has alot of strong overhead resistance to push through. Wait a couple of more days until the weekend when an if Wilma hits Florida or somewhere along the Gulf coast with force and see what we get out of that.
Personally I would love to see a breakout rally but to me nothing has changed since my post last night. The S&P hasn't broken resistance and still has alot of push going against it and there are some volitaile things out there that could influence it's direction big time. I just don't see how anyone could be leaning strongly in any direction right now. It anything it has yet to prove that it will break the downtrend.
NB,
XOM up .87 today and OIH up 2.73 and Wilma picking up strength in the Gulf. Does that look good for a drop in the barrel price short term? Very fickle markets right now.

[Runner]

Well one thing is for sure Mr. Markets members are divided as far as the Bull and the Bear goes. I’m Bear but a sideline bear at this point. IN cash and or in the wait and see mode. Waiting to see the Bull or Bear take charge. Nice move today and one thing is for sure the truth on the markets tone will be known in due time. Sure many shorts got punched in the eye, but many longs holding stocks from last highs are trying to find a way to stop the bleeding. Longs got a little relief today and they now are bragging to the wife about how right they are for holding through the 5 point drop on heavy volume..haha...