Tweet
Originally posted by dick
Anyhow, I am back in at 21.75 for another roundtrip. Looking to exit around 23.10 or so.
-
You sold at the "right" moment, but I actually bought in again today at 21.75. Seems like this selloff us due to unstability of Venezuela.
Anyhow, I am back in at 21.75 for another roundtrip. Looking to exit around 23.10 or so. -
VNT - Possible Venezuela play
speaking of Venezuela, if you want a good play on a panic opportunity there, try VNT.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VNT&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
they're already getting hammered pretty hard with a newfound potentially $1B pension liability, and any political flak would just add fuel to that fire. Get 'em while they're cheap, I say. NBB, you'll love this because, get this, they pay a 24% dividend. Of course that could drop every year because it's paid in bolivars. VNT was brought to my attention because it's one of AFT's major customers.
Serious DD required before purchasing anything like this though, be careful!Comment
-
Mr. Dividend
Yes, Jiesen, I am Mr. Dividend. No question about that.Originally posted by jiesenComment
-
Stockcharts
I was checking the scans on Stockcharts this morning, and they had five stocks that were overbought with a declining RSI--CIB was one of them.
Comment
-
back in CIB (again)
well, I sold out my 21.75 buy at 22.55 earlier today and now CIB is collapsing again. Time for my 3rd roundtrip. In long at around 21.40 area. Looking for the 22.40 exit ramp this time.
Will add if it gets near $20.40 or so...
Looks like technicals are getting little bumpy on this one recently, but it's still a GREAT company and a CHEAP stock.Comment
-
Looks like it is testing the 50 dma. Looks like a good time to buy.
It may take awhile for this one to reach the target as it has lost its mo. It may take another earnings report to get this one running again.Comment
-
Cib...
I did end up selling my last batch of CIB around 22.20 for another profit (3rd one). I was "excited" to see it get all the way to 22.90 a few days ago, but this downturn again makes me think that it's again a buy at just under 21.
Longer-term, I think CIB has no problems hitting 25 level.Comment
-
CIB posts $205M profit for first 8 months of 2005
At today's exchange rate of 0.0004361 USD/COP, CIB has made $205M so far this year, which would give them a profit of ~$300M this year total, if they continued to earn at the same rate for the rest of the year. That's a $50M increase over 2004's profit. Looks like they're doing just fine to me:
BANCOLOMBIA Reports Unconsolidated Net Income of Ps $469,446 Million During the First Eight Months of 2005 (that's 205M USD)
Tuesday September 13, 7:06 pm ET
MEDELLIN, Colombia, Sept. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- BANCOLOMBIA reported accumulated unconsolidated net income of Ps $469,446 million as of August 31, 2005. For the first eight months of 2005, the total net interest, including investment securities amounted to Ps $1,038,413 million. Additionally, total net fees and income from services amounted to Ps $349,893 million.
Total assets amounted to Ps 21.7 trillion in August 2005, total deposits totaled Ps 13.2 trillion and BANCOLOMBIA's total shareholders' equity amounted to Ps 2.9 trillion.
BANCOLOMBIA's (unconsolidated) level of past due loans as a percentage of total loans was 3.82% as of August 31, 2005, and the level of allowance for past due loans was 113.80%.
Market Share According to ASOBANCARIA (Colombia's national banking association), BANCOLOMBIA's market share of the Colombian Financial System in August 2005 was as follows: 18.0% of total deposits, 21.9% of total net loans, 17.9% of total savings accounts, 18.5% of total checking accounts and 17.6% of total time deposits.Comment
-
CIB news and charts...
The problem is that CIB has closed BELOW the 50-day moving avg for the first time since June on 3rd highest volume since MARCH 2005.
I am concerned about how low it wants it to go before turning around. 19.30's might be a good support.
I still love the company, but HATE the chart!Comment
-
Here are the last 3 reports they put out on net income in Pesos.
Months Amt Difference from prior month
8 469,446 $55,456
7 413,990 $144,723
6 269,267 $44,877 -- Guess on this one 267,267 / 6 Avg net
As you can see month 7 really sticks out. I wonder what would cause such a difference from the prior 6 month average. Month 8 is close to the 6 month average.
The only analyst estimate I found from Yahoo was $865.00M US for this year. It sure looks like that estimate is much too high. Using jiesen's exchange rate and numbers it looks like they will miss that by ~565.00M US. Am I missing something with my numbers here?
This is the first stock I have owned where exchange rate had such an impact on the financial results.Comment
-
Maybe Yahoo! was projecting the USD to be down 50% from here by the end of the year? Why not? Buffett is prediciting the same thing...Originally posted by sowersnc
Or maybe they thought after going from $44M to $144M in July they'd continue the trend by earning $244M in August? Anyway, I still think $300M this year would be a good increase from $250M last year. As long as they command a fifth of Colombia's financial services market, they should have no problem growing earnings going forward. The only thing I think is a concern is the increase from 1.6% to 3.8% of the "bad loans" figure from June 30th. I'm no banker, but I think that the 113% allowance means it's grown to as much as they figured it would, am I right bankers? So, barring a death spiral of bankruptcies in Colombia, this bank shouldn't be pulling an OFG before giving us our 15% first.Comment
-
Hi guys,
New to this forum, got involved w/ CIB, and thats how I discovered MrMarket. Great forum for those swing traders. Im working on my 3rd trip in CIB, anyone want to add there 2cents worth on CIB now @$20.27? I'm in at $21.15 Is it time to cut and run or is it firmming up and going to bounce off the 50DMA?Comment
-
Here are some thoughts, not looking good at this point, there may others out there that look better.
Comment
-
Welcome KalaMan!Originally posted by KalaMan
Pull up a chair.
CIB is another great example of a double top on the daily leading to a normal healthy correction in a stock that's had a solid run the last 2 years. And it looks good on the long side while it holds 19.16, which was the minor reg regression channel long last week that had a very sharp intraday V bottom last Tuesday. Nice money flow on the daily, but if that support fails it may search for support at the next channel which is 16.50 and rising at a rate of about a point a month. So unless you can stand that 22% drop you may want to consider a 19.15 stop or better still, below the triangle it's forming on the 10-day chart. Good luck with it!Comment
-
Thanks for the feedback...love this forum!
Thanks for the 2cents guys. I took the oportunity to cut some of my position, and look for something w/ more "Mojo". Having said that CIB is firming up, and vol. is building.....Stay tunedComment
Comment