CIB ==> The Perseids Winner!

[Runner]

I got a buy signal on CIB Friday. Stop under LOD target 24.20. I do need confirmation of long signal.

[mooddude]

Stock just got hurt badly.

[jiesen]

Here are the last 3 reports they put out on net income in Pesos.


Months Amt Difference from prior month
8 469,446 $55,456
7 413,990 $144,723
6 269,267 $44,877 -- Guess on this one 267,267 / 6 Avg net


As you can see month 7 really sticks out. I wonder what would cause such a difference from the prior 6 month average. Month 8 is close to the 6 month average.


The only analyst estimate I found from Yahoo was $865.00M US for this year. It sure looks like that estimate is much too high. Using jiesen's exchange rate and numbers it looks like they will miss that by ~565.00M US. Am I missing something with my numbers here?

This is the first stock I have owned where exchange rate had such an impact on the financial results.

Looks to me like they are continuing to earn at a similar (or better) rate:

Months Amt Difference from prior month (Millions of Ps)
9 554,500 $85,054
8 469,446 $55,456
7 413,990 $144,723
6 269,267 $44,877 -- Guess on this one 267,267 / 6 Avg net

CIB is a money machine!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051011/mxtu004.html?.v=1

Bancolombia Reports Unconsolidated Net Income of Ps $554,500 Million During the First Nine Months of 2005
Tuesday October 11, 6:32 pm ET

MEDELLIN, Colombia, Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Bancolombia reported accumulated unconsolidated net income of Ps $554,500 million as of September 30, 2005. For the first nine months of 2005, the total net interest, including investment securities amounted to Ps $1,254,461 million. Additionally, total net fees and income from services amounted to Ps $393,389 million.

Total assets amounted to Ps $22.02 trillion in September 2005, total deposits totaled Ps $13.45 trillion and Bancolombia's total shareholders' equity amounted to Ps $3.05 trillion. Bancolombia's (unconsolidated) level of past due loans as a percentage of total loans was 3.84% as of September 30, 2005, and the level of allowance for past due loans was 117.61%.

Market Share

According to ASOBANCARIA (Colombia's national banking association), Bancolombia's market share of the Colombian Financial System in September 2005 was as follows: 17.4% of total deposits, 21.9% of total net loans, 17.4% of total savings accounts, 17.9% of total checking accounts and 16.7% of total time deposits.

[jiesen]

At today's exchange rate of 0.0004361 USD/COP, CIB has made $205M so far this year, which would give them a profit of ~$300M this year total, if they continued to earn at the same rate for the rest of the year. That's a $50M increase over 2004's profit. Looks like they're doing just fine to me:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050913/nytu206.html?.v=13

BANCOLOMBIA Reports Unconsolidated Net Income of Ps $469,446 Million During the First Eight Months of 2005 (that's 205M USD)
Tuesday September 13, 7:06 pm ET

MEDELLIN, Colombia, Sept. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- BANCOLOMBIA reported accumulated unconsolidated net income of Ps $469,446 million as of August 31, 2005. For the first eight months of 2005, the total net interest, including investment securities amounted to Ps $1,038,413 million. Additionally, total net fees and income from services amounted to Ps $349,893 million.

Total assets amounted to Ps 21.7 trillion in August 2005, total deposits totaled Ps 13.2 trillion and BANCOLOMBIA's total shareholders' equity amounted to Ps 2.9 trillion.

BANCOLOMBIA's (unconsolidated) level of past due loans as a percentage of total loans was 3.82% as of August 31, 2005, and the level of allowance for past due loans was 113.80%.

Market Share According to ASOBANCARIA (Colombia's national banking association), BANCOLOMBIA's market share of the Colombian Financial System in August 2005 was as follows: 18.0% of total deposits, 21.9% of total net loans, 17.9% of total savings accounts, 18.5% of total checking accounts and 17.6% of total time deposits.

(Reposting for easy comparison of last month's numbers to this month's.)

[rrezac]

Uribe Re-election OK'd

Uribe has been approved to run for re-election. This will insure Colombia's economy will be prosperous and CIB will continue upward.....

[jiesen]

CIB is gathering steam

Looks like we might see our next HUGE winner here shortly:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CIB&t=5d

[mooddude]

Looks like a breakout from a double-bottom base on huge volume today.

[rrezac]

Earnings on Thursday...

will be enough to push this baby to the 15% mark and then some.

[IIC]

Not for Nuttin'...But it sounds like a money laundering operation to me...IIC

[jiesen]

will be enough to push this baby to the 15% mark and then some.

Just the anticipation alone could do it. We're already at +10%, and with just another $1 to go, we could be selling tomorrow.

[jiesen]

another glowing review of CIB:

Re: Colombia Veteran
by: theeseer (52/M/Los Angeles, CA)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 11/01/05 01:16 pm
Msg: 2336 of 2342

Thanks for the nice words. If anyone has a question about the country of Colombia I'll do my best to answer it. CIB gobbled up the largest consumer level bank "Conavi" and when I met their management I could see the emerging powerhouse. Colombia is not what most people think. Its stock market has made huge gains in the last 2 years inflation is at one of the lowest rates in the region. The country has 45 million people and the housing sector is very strong.

In Medellin they just opened a huge convention center, the largest in the region and this month for example they will host a huge minerals expo. Their economy is quite diversified with gold, platinum, emeralds, textiles and they are the largest fresh flower exporter to the USA. If you ever visit you will fall in love with the friendly pro American people and enjoy some great exotic fruits and food.

Credit risk is best managed by locals who know the culture and strictly investigated and enforced. Fannie Mae has begun buying loans there and I'm looking for capital for real estate development which has a strong upside there. Uribe's re election puts a pro USA, Pro business, anti drug young dynamic guy at the helm. He has a 70% approval rate and provides an umbrella of security that has the people concentrating on business.

I'm seeing a 5 year run of steady growth in the country and CIB will grow with it. They just opened an ethanol plant and they have the largest coal reserves in the region!! That and the Oil interests (OXY etc)near Venezuela have just begun to be exploited. Eventually a piepline will go from Venezuela to the Pacific Ocean through Colombia. Uribe is expert at balancing anti-communism and local politics that impact his economy. CIB gets a piece of everything.

from:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=14146270&tid=cib&sid=14146270&mid=2336

[jiesen]

Earnings look good to me:

Looks like we'll be selling today...

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051102/mxw002.html?.v=22

Consolidated Financial Results for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2005
Wednesday November 2, 8:02 am ET

MEDELLIN, Colombia, Nov. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Today, Bancolombia S.A. (NYSE: CIB - News) announced the financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2005. HIGHLIGHTS:

* This is the first time Bancolombia has released consolidated results
since the merger that took place on July 30, 2005. This report contains
pro forma figures for the third quarter of 2004, for the second quarter
of 2005, and for the periods ended September 30, 2004, and
June 30, 2005, as if the spin off of Corfinsura and the merger with
Conavi and Corfinsura (after the spin-off) had taken place on those
dates, for the purpose of comparison with the results of the third
quarter of 2005, and the period ended September 30, 2005. All references
to numbers for periods prior to the merger contained herein were derived
from such pro forma consolidated financial statements.

* Net income increased 10.6% over the quarter and 16.4% over the year,
amounting to Ps 269.2 billion, compared to pro forma net income of
Ps 243.5 billion for the previous quarter and Ps 231.4 billion during
the third quarter of 2004.

* As of September 30, 2005, Bancolombia's net loans totaled
Ps 17,246 billion, increasing 2.3% compared to Ps 16,860 billion in the
previous quarter pro forma. On a year-to-year basis, this represents an
increase of 10.6% from Ps 15,595 billion pro forma at
September 30, 2004. On the other hand, investment debt securities
amounted to Ps 7,343 billion. Compared to pro forma figures, they were
stable over the quarter and increased 5.9% over the year.

* During the third quarter of 2005, net interest income amounted to
Ps 600.5 billion, increasing 14.2% compared to the previous quarter pro
forma and 20.2% on a year-to-year basis. Similarly, the net interest
margin went from 8.63% during the third quarter 2004 to 9.59% for the
same period of 2005.

* Net fees and income from services were up 18.2% over the quarter,
reaching a total of Ps 208.0 billion, which represents an increase of
33.2% compared to pro forma figures for the third quarter of 2004.

* Bancolombia's ratio of past due loans to total loans at
September 30, 2005 was 3.22% and the ratio of allowances for past due
loans was 130%.

* Bancolombia experienced non-recurrent provisions, operating expenses and
merger expenses, due mainly to accounting adjustments of the acquired
companies to Bancolombia's policies.
The complete document can be downloaded from Bancolombia's Web page http://www.bancolombia.com under Investor Relations.

[Gatorman]

Meek Reaction

jiesen:
I was expecting a bigger bounce on the good news than we have seen so far. Was also thinking we'd hit 25.20 target early in the session but guess we'll have to see if it gains momentum. As I write this, we're at 24.58.

[jiesen]

jiesen:
I was expecting a bigger bounce on the good news than we have seen so far. Was also thinking we'd hit 25.20 target early in the session but guess we'll have to see if it gains momentum. As I write this, we're at 24.58.

Yeah, me too. I was expecting about 25, so I had an order in for 24.93. I just lowered it to 24.87. It did hit 24.7 briefly. It will come around though, so I'm going to be patient from here.

[Gatorman]

It's a Matter of When, Not If

jiesen,
If it's today or tomorrow, we'll be watching. Right now, it is a race to see if CIB hits before RIO(I'm in at 39.05 looking for 44.91). In either case, both will hit soon. Then, it's time to look forward to another MM data dump.