Billyjoes Top 10 Cheap Stocks

[RL]

Hey Billy thanks for your answer thought I was the only guy throwing darts. I was just wondering about Joe 6 pack might be a relative.

And speaking of earnings plays, guys, I'd really like to see a thread dedicated to earnings plays. I'd do it but I don't have any more time left.

I invite ANYONE (lurkers included) to step up and volunteer to run an earnings playbook and make a completely new thread titled something like "Earnings Plays; trading the volatility" ........ or sumfin like that, with realtime entry and exit calls, perhaps using stops (or if not perhaps dollar-cost averaging) to attempt to turn a paper profit.

1) It would be interesting and fun to watch and
2) Itwould provide some good educational material.

Who's gonna step up and run it? You, you, YOU?

I wish I had the knowledge to do this for you..... give me another 4 months and I will be there.

Dena

[billyjoe]

Hey Ray,
I think you are Ray 6 pack. Joe 6 pack must be some other guy. I found GROW by running a bunch of screens on stocks under 10.00. You can find a bunch of different sites to do this on Google. Figure out what you consider to be the most important categories to screen for such as earnings ,sales, profit etc. I found about 15 different to use. Then count up the number of times each stock shows up on the list. This week my paper had 33 lines so that's as far as I could go in each category. GROW showed up on the list in sales growth , earnings growth, profit , mutual fund purchases, and some others. Two others are almost tied with it : IFO and RWC . HOM dominated this week's screens by far. The one problem is determining what values to put on each screen such as is profit more valuable than earnings growth? You just have to rank them by what you think is more important. Some people would never buy GROW because it only trades 51,400 shares on average , but I didn't penalize it for that.


billyjoe

[RL]

Billy this will no dought turn out to be a really popular link. My only ouestion at this time Is how did you come up with GROW?

[spikefader]

And speaking of earnings plays, guys, I'd really like to see a thread dedicated to earnings plays. I'd do it but I don't have any more time left.

I invite ANYONE (lurkers included) to step up and volunteer to run an earnings playbook and make a completely new thread titled something like "Earnings Plays; trading the volatility" ........ or sumfin like that, with realtime entry and exit calls, perhaps using stops (or if not perhaps dollar-cost averaging) to attempt to turn a paper profit.

1) It would be interesting and fun to watch and
2) Itwould provide some good educational material.

Who's gonna step up and run it? You, you, YOU?

[spikefader]

Results Cheap Stock Portfolio Method #2 ........ a $3,000 gain. ............ In the words of Spike , GROW is SUPERSTOCK ... 14.865%.
Will be back with a new top 10 cheapies this weekend
billyjoe

Wow billyjoe! Very nice dude. Glad to see that leveraging worked positive for you too (in the face of a buy 'n hold loss)! Congrats dude.

I suspect that our combined results over the months ahead might even convince the most die-hard buy-and-holder change the way they think about buy and hold.

Looking forward to next week's results for Method #2 and the next Superstock Hey, after 10 weeks you should run a Superstock Shootout to get the MegaSuperStock! hehe

[billyjoe]

Top 10 Cheap Stock Portfolio Week 2 Nov.21st

1. HOM 6.69 home restoration after floods wind Florida Texas California

2. IFO 9.67 wireless handsets U.S.A. Mexico

3. GROW 8.50 investment advice , records , mailing , distribution

4. RWC 6.69 manufact. wireless 2 way radios business , govt., public safety

5. CGFW 9.46 security products govt. internet commerce

6. SPIL 4.98 Taiwan semiconductors

7. NBG 8.33 banking financial sevices Greece and 17 other countries

8. BTJ 8.12 marine earthquake detectors mini clutches brakes motors

9. GW 7.59 onshore gas drilling gulf coast and rocky mtns.

10. TLF 5.10 leather retail stores

Next week we'll continue figuring the portfolio using 2 different methods #1 Hold and Fold --- sell if they are stopped out keep in cash let the others run and total it up at week's end
#2 Reinvest with the best after selling the rest. Sell all that are stopped out and put money into best performing remaining open positions. Total up remaining positions at week's end.

billyjoe

[mooddude]

I think that the best rule one can learn is that "if news are good the stock will jump" and that "if news are bad the stock will sink". However, I made my comment to say that there was more negative bias for the stocks that billyjoe mentioned. So I figured the rule really was to short, not long

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I think what both mooddude and myself are thinking is there seems to be more of a chance nowadays that they'll be a drop instead of a pop.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

So why not just short before earnings then?

No, the trick is to short the pop on earnings. But ya got to be disciplined becuz sometimes you can get a pop and runner. But I tell ya, last few years, selling the pop has earned some very nice dollars. And it can sometimes make no sense, except for the concept of buy the rumor sell the news. Good news doesn't always=bull move. Sometimes the smart big money has riden up on the expectation it'll be good news, only to sell the news when it is confirmed, and all the dumb money is buying the shares they are dumping. Gives them liquidity to sell into. They have money AND perhaps inside information. Don't seem right does it? Poor Joe Six Pack who doesn't really understand it all and buys the good news is left to squirm in red, with a distinct risk of being a bag-holder for a while.

[billyjoe]

mooddude,
That would have worked well with AOB and COGO , but HOM went up to 6.60 after earnings , then down to 5.62 within a couple hours , then back up hitting 6.69 today , but if you were fast enough....

billyjoe

[mooddude]

What I learned this week :

4. Of the 7 closed positions 4 came back but probably not enough to offset losses that AOB -22.5% and COGO -8.2% could have caused

billyjoe

So why not just short before earnings then?

[billyjoe]

What I learned this week :

1. Don't hold stocks through earnings HOM AOB COGO all stopped out and reports weren't that bad

2. Sell your bad stocks and reinvest in the good performers

3. One great pick can make up for a bunch of bad ones if you cut losses

4. Of the 7 closed positions 4 came back but probably not enough to offset losses that AOB -22.5% and COGO -8.2% could have caused

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Results Cheap Stock Portfolio Method #2 Take money from stopped positions, put it into open positions next day market open , raise stops from 7% Monday, to 3% Thurs. and 2% of opening price Fri.

Monday AOB, COGO, HOM, IFO stopped at 7% loss money goes to best performers remaining at next market open. These are GROW, ERS, ENG, MIG

Tuesday CBIZ stopped at 7% loss money divided between GROW and ENG $46,500 to each at open Wednesday

Wednesday None stopped

Thursday Stops raised to 3% loss of opening price. LPSN stopped value $93,499. MIG sold at opening due to poor performance. Proceeds split evenly among GROW ERS ENG $31,167 goes to each from LPSN $63,550 goes to each from MIG

Friday Stops raised to 2% loss of opening price ERS stops with value of $288,837 ENG stops with value of $343,054 GROW not stopped ends with weekly gain of 14.865% gain value is $371,467

We end the week with $1,003,358 even with 7 of 10 losers . We gained an extra $20,400 by reinvesting with the good stocks . I'll even give the $358 to the broker and we still have a $3,000 gain . Think if 4 or 5 of the stocks hadn't stopped out.
In the words of Spike , GROW is our SUPERSTOCK gains 14.865%.
Will be back with a new top 10 cheapies this weekend

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Results of this week's Cheap Stock Portfolio Method #1 Sell stocks when they hit stops. Keep all money in cash and add to value of positions remaining open.

We started with $100,000 in each of 10 stocks

1. AOB stopped 7% loss $93,000

2. LPSN stopped after stops raised to 3% $96,941

3. COGO stopped 7% loss $93,000

4. HOM stopped 7% loss $93,000

5. IFO stopped 7% loss $93,000

6. GROW open 7.40 close fri. 8.50 14.865%gain $114,865

7. ERS stopped at 2% of Fri. open 1.73% gain $101,730

8. ENG stopped at 2% of Fri. open 5.931% gain $105,931

9. CBIZ stopped 7% loss $93,000

10. MIG sold at 1.48% loss $98,520

Total remaining funds $982,987 loss 1.7% but check out what would happen if we put our cash back into the better performers. Coming up shortly.


billyjoe