Admans outlook

[IIC]

Adman...I will admit...I do read your posts and check out your pix...But where are the losers?...We "ALL" have them.

CBIZ...nice call...But who brought it up in the first place?

Forum: Discussion 02-26-2006, 07:39 PM Replies: 5,091
Portfolio of the Week
Views: 92,958
Posted By IIC
Changed my mind...Start me w/ CBIZ loooooong...IIC

Changed my mind...Start me w/ CBIZ loooooong...IIC

[Adman]

Adman...I will admit...I do read your posts and check out your pix...But where are the losers?...We "ALL" have them.

CBIZ...nice call...But who brought it up in the first place?

Forum: Discussion 02-26-2006, 07:39 PM Replies: 5,091
Portfolio of the Week
Views: 92,958
Posted By IIC
Changed my mind...Start me w/ CBIZ loooooong...IIC

Changed my mind...Start me w/ CBIZ loooooong...IIC

Kudos on CBIZ, but if you notice, I re-interated a buy on that, stating I had been on it for a year, and still felt it had room to move. Honestly, I did not catch yot post on it, my bad.


For those that follow, we blew past $40 at the end of the quarter, and are now up a nice 17.49% in the 24 trading days since I posted this. I am still holding the position, now looking for $47.15 as an exit, for a net/net 30% by mid to late June, if not sooner.http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showt...liton#post43074


Some of my other picks in March that experienced large gains were:

CBIZ is up a bit more tha 8% in the 29th of March (4 trading days), when I put this out as a pick.

IIG is up over 15%, since I put that out as a pick on 3/28 (4 trading days, although, I was not on this one)

AMK up over 10% since I put that out as a pick on 3/28 (4 Trading days)

CHINA up 5% since 3/22

SFG up 3% since 3/23

ALA popped about 7%, since I picked it for a short termer at 4-5% (pre merger, also)

MCSS up 7%+ since 3/23

ESCL up 17.51% since 3/16

PD up 17.1% since 3/16

NVDA up a staggering 25+% since 3/20!!

XWG up 15%+ since 3/15

MED up an astonishing 30%!!!!!!! since 3/16

Adman...I will admit...I do read your posts and check out your pix...But where are the losers?...We "ALL" have them....IIC [/i]

Fair enough. To be above board, I have included all the picks I put up from Adman’s Outlook, which I started in mid-March (I joined up here 2/2.
I did not take the time to sift through all the other post’s I put up prior to starting Adman’s Outlook, simply because I foolishly put them up on a ton of different threads.
Here are the rest of my calls for March, including the down stocks:
(I’m just putting up the total gains and losses in dollars and cents. Too late tonight to calculate percentages, net/net)

ICE $71 to 65, down, but I did recant this call, and posted an apology for it, the day I did it.
TTM 20.04 up to 21.73
SGP 18.50 up to 19.
MTU 14.58 up to 15.47
CNXT 3.06 up to 3.62
OPTC 20 to 23.80 up to 27.11
VMC 82.30 up to 90.30 (the VTP missed this call, whatever the VTP is)
SYK 45. Down to 44.65
UTMD 47.55 down to 31.94
FMX 83.67 up to 93.70
DTAS 13.80 up to 13.89
CKCM 23.49 up to 24.45

So, as you can see, removing ICE from the equation, I had only one significant looser in UTMD. The others that were down were so, only by pennies.


Forget the meats and cheese, send me your finest Scotches'.

[RL]

Adman I'm going to start buying your picks as of today, hope they are not day trades as I trade out of two ira accounts and must hold at least three days

[IIC]

Adman I'm going to start buying your picks as of today, hope they are not day trades as I trade out of two ira accounts and must hold at least three days

Why would you have to hold 3 days...except when you are using unsettled funds?

[RL]

Thats the reason If the stock Is only a day trade and I sell to pick up a quick buck I'm then setting with unsetteld funds and that puts a three day hold on my money. If I can pick up three to five percent I sell In three days most times. If I pick up a good one like DXPE that Jim Smith gave us I'll add to It.

[Adman]

Just to make sure that I was not overlooking any blatant losers, I went back and combed through all of my posts, and here are the rest of my picks.
Over all, out of 42 picks, I have only 4 down, and 2 of the four are down by pennies, one was recanted and one genuine bad pick.
Well over 92% rose, and more than a handful rose over 15%, and many over 10%.

VTSS 3.12 up to 3.63
ACSEF 4.79 up to 4.81
SUF 6.72 up to 8.62
PLB 4.23 up to 7.00 (HUGE!)
BDY 12.90 up to 14.70
AXL 15.03 up to 16.85
CHNR 10.93 up to 11.23
UNH 56.37 down to 55.73 (.64 cents)
COT 13.13 down to 13.04 (.09 cents)
NTN 1.35 up to 1.45
DANA .66 up to 1.57 (a bona fide bonanza!)
ABB 11.77 up to 12.95
ALD 30.31 up to 30.89
TLAB 13.64 up to 15.88
JDSU 3.63 up to 3.92
WTR 26.75 up to 27.50

I do need to point out here; I did not specifically recommend that any one at this forum purchase any of my picks. I comb through dozens of stocks each week, and try to post some over looked stocks, or sometimes, just fresh ideas.
I always urge everyone to do his or her own research on my picks before buying.
If one of my picks doesn’t feel right to you, or does not fit your trading model, walk away. There are a ton of choices out there.
Happy trading, and congratulations to those that made money from my picks.

[The Stock Boy]

WOW!!!!!

Just a quick scan and add in my head of your picks, I come up with almost a 17% average return in the 5 weeks you posted!!

YOU ARE HUGE!!!!!!!!$$$$$$$$$

You sir, do know the markets! I am awed by this. If you don't mind me asking, how many of them did you invest in?
Dave

[IIC]

Just to make sure that the readers of Adman's thread realize this...I was just giving him a little bit of a hard time...A little Razz...I'm 99.9% sure that he knows that...But maybe some others don't.

Even though I don't personally know Adman...From reading his posts I would say that he and I are fairly similar in what we are looking for...Although, my horizon on most of my buys is probably shorter term than his.

Keep 'em comin' Adman... Best, Doug(IIC)

[Adman]

Just to make sure that the readers of Adman's thread realize this...I was just giving him a little bit of a hard time...A little Razz...I'm 99.9% sure that he knows that...But maybe some others don't.

Even though I don't personally know Adman...From reading his posts I would say that he and I are fairly similar in what we are looking for...Although, my horizon on most of my buys is probably shorter term than his.

Keep 'em comin' Adman... Best, Doug(IIC)

Thanks Doug, and that’s exactly how I took it, as a good-natured ribbing. However, you did get me thinking, other than ICE, were there any losers? (Only kidding)
I received several PM’s after that post, and since most asked the same questions, I’ll answer here, in the public forum.

I need to point out here, that I do not take a position in every stock I write up for this page, and when I do, I always disclose if I take a position, or more importantly, if I was already long in a company when I posted on it. Full and fair disclosure.

I am not trying to influence any existing positions in my portfolio by posting on them, when I do (write them up). If I post on one that I already own, I disclose it, and I only post on it if I think there is still plenty of room for capital appreciation left.
Also, very seldom do I day trade, it goes against my core investment model. There are rare occasions, when I see a stock that I think a 3-5% gain can be made in a day or two. For the most part, I buy and hold until it reaches my target price, at which time, I re-evaluate the position for sell or hold indicators.

I do not look just for stocks that will bring back 10-15% or more. In reality, the overwhelming number of positions I buy, bring me back a 5-7% return. It’s nice to elephant hunt, but you need to shoot some rabbits along the way to eat. To that, I do not have a pre set time horizon, I set my hold time on a stock-by-stock basis, and re-check it regularly. If a pick is not working out, I cut and run. This is where not letting emotion get in the way, really comes into play.

I received a PM earlier, from a member here, that related that over the past several years, he has paid several hundred dollars each, for newsletters written by the supposed Wall Street gurus, analyst and pickers. He went on to name a couple of them, and concluded by saying that reading Adman’s Outlook provided more timely and concise picks than any of the news letters had been able to get to him.
With all that said, and without trying to sound conceited, view this thread like a $300 newsletter, but for free. Have fun with, try to make some money along the way, and as always, invest with your head, and do your own research befor putting your hard earned money down.
Trade on friends!

[Adman]

Here are a couple of interesting ones to keep an eye on.
I will be entering limit orders on both today, and will disclose if I go in.

CLDN, Celadon Group this is a solid mid west trucking company that will be reporting earning in about a week and a half, and I do not see any reason for disappointment here.
Cruising along near it’s 52 week high, I am looking for an entry point of 24 even today, and we should see this gem at 26.50 or better by mid year. I think 29 would be too aggressive of a call right now, but I don’t rule it out.

TSU, TIM PARTICIPACOES (NOT the July puts for AT&T, same symbol, be careful if you place a trade for this, that you get the right investment).
This is a foreign telecom that I ran across last week while doing research on FTE (French Telecom) and SKM (South Korea Telecom)
I have been in the ETF for some time now, but not really enamored with the return, so I dug into the underlying portfolio to come up with these.
I have been in and out of SKM recently, and remain long in FTE.

FOLLOW UP:
I would like to reiterate FIA and add HMC with it. Both Honda and Fiat are looking very strong right now.

[IIC]

CLDN...Helluva a call Adman

[Adman]

CLDN...Helluva a call Adman

Thank you!

[Adman]

Let’s spend a little time, before earnings season hits high gear, on the financials:

I’ve been on Goldman for about 10 months now, and have experienced almost a 95% gain in that time. I was also in Safeco, for about a year, pulling in close to 75% before selling. Ameritrade: I held, and went through the TD Waterhouse union, and recently sold off all of my position, again at a tidy profit.
As I mentioned, I still have Goldman, and do not plan on increasing my stake over there, but do believe there is plenty of tread left on their tires. There are plenty of big deals left to hit the street, and you need to believe that GS will have their golden little fingers in more than a few of those pies. All things being equal, I feel that there could be another 17-20% left before you see a leveling near the end of third quarter.
At a buck sixty a share, GS may seem high, but so did GOOG at $240. “Nuff said on GS.

I went combing through the financials, looking for some players that did not capture the big moves I experienced with GS, SAFC and AMTD, and why.

Here are a couple that really jumped at me, and upon further inspection, revealed some good qualities that could show some decent returns over the next 3-4 months or so.

First is E-Trade (ET). Sure, you’re saying, “but Adman, they’ve doubled in the past 12 months.” You are correct, and we have been in a stealth bull market for two plus years, and up until recently, are not so stealth anymore.
I have seen and heard of unprecedented home gamers climbing back into the market, and they are using portals like E-Trade to get there. Don’t get me wrong here, I am not talking about regular traders; I am talking about the average Joe. The guy that has 10 grand in his account, and makes 4 trades a month at 15 bucks a pop. Multiply that by the 10’s of thousands, many of which only got on the train in January or February of this year. All that adds up to what could be a record quarter for E-Trade.
They will be announcing earnings on a conference call on April 17th at 5 PM EST, and I fully expect to hear Connie Dotson and Mitch Caplan belt out some great results. Stay tuned to this one.

The next one is TradeStation, (TRAD), recently added to most of the financial indexes, it is also poised to capitalize from the great first quarter we just came off. TradeStation has now made its way onto more regional wirehouse brokers desks in recent years, gaining respect in the industry. I have to believe that the number of active home traders using TradeStations’ platform, have increased significantly over the past 3-4 months, just a hunch.

The finale one is Morgan Stanley (MS). MSDW did not enjoy the lustrous past 12 that it should have. They missed out on a few deals, and had some management blunders stall them out a couple of times. They were only able to move from 57 to 63 in a twelve month period, when they should have gone from 57 to 77 or better.
Now that’s all about to change. Yesterday they announced that Bob Kindler has come over from JP Morgan to head up MS’s IB group. Bob is a rainmaker, a deal maker or whatever you want to call him, this guy makes things happen. Bob spent 6 years at JPM making deals and bringing companies to the street. Prior to that, he spent 20 years at Craveth Swain & Moore (a very prestigious NYC law firm, for those not familiar with them) as a senior partner, where he headed up their M&A team.
I could rattle ad-nauseam the deals Bob has been involved in over the past 25 years, but I won’t. Just remember, those calibers of deals will now be coming out of MS.

As always, do your own research before you invest.

[IIC]

Re: CLDN...That was one that I broadcast all over the place pre-m after I saw your post and did a bit of DD...I wasn't around much today and I may not be able to catch anything tomorrow...Maybe the last hour.

Anyway...When I click on your signature I get this (Can't see your lin)

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /photos862/1/89/47/84/79/4/479844789103_0_ALB.jpg on this server.


Apache/1.3.33 Server at upsa-im106.ofoto.com Port 80

[Adman]

The market experienced somewhat of an afternoon selloff, which may be a good thing for my financial picks. I still stand by them, and, now, if you are serious about digging into any of them, they have been "put on sale".
One additional stock that I did not post, as the post was long enough:

CBC, Capital Bancorp. These guys are the best of what they do: Help develope community banks, build them up, fatten them and help sell them to the major banks. Today, down almost 3% to $45, makes them all the more attractive.
Do your own research, and have a great weekend!

BTW-The Bob Kindler story, which I posted last evening, was the early morning lead story on all the financial networks today (FNN, CNBC, Bloomie, CNN Fin et alia...)