Lyehopper's Roundup....

[peanuts]

Continuation H&S on SID. I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to short it.

Dave,

Could you explain that some more? I know what a H&S pattern is, but I'm not sure how it applies to the chart of SID. Thanks for the help. Anyway, I am not currently shorting it, but I will be looking for a entry on the short side if all the stars align...

[DSteckler]

Continuation H&S patterns look just like an inverse H&S (shoulders higher than the head). The difference between an IH&S and a CH&S is:

1. The volume pattern.
2. An IH&S appears after a significant downtrend. A CH&S appears as a pause in an uptrend.

[peanuts]

SID this year

here's a chart re-cap of what SID did this year. A nice bull run after a gap up near $23.37. The run was snapped in the beginning of May at $32 when it broke the support trendline and made a lower low. $32 became resistance since that time.

Now this is what I think it will do next:

Since it was not able to pick up any volume as it first tested resistance at 32 from the end of June to the second week in July, it fell back to test support at $30, found it, rebounded back to $32 and still couldn't find any volume to really support it again at $32. After the announcement today of the partnership, the price STILL could not find any strong volume to launch from $32 to new highs. It needs to test support again, and if that fails, I will be opening a short position. My target will be the gap at $23.37.

I also don't think the Steel Industry will get much attention after this earnings season. I have not seen anything yet that would get me really excited about it. It really pushed the market along earlier this year.

Of course, tomorrow everyone and their brother will think this partnership is the greatest thing since meat on a stick, and the stock could go bananas and make all time highs... but this is the market that we're talking about.

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper,

When considering steel industry shorts, you should consider SID as a possibility.

I don't think basic steel will be ripe to short till the fall Peanuts.

I'll will look at SID and see how it stacks up.... Thanks

[Lyehopper]

CVGI still a favorite of mine.

I bought CVGI today and the highest I paid was $19.10 (I'll use $19.10 on my thread trade log)....

Looks like CVGI is about to move upward.... I HOPE!

[spikefader]

Wassup Lye! This thread is too quiet! Do you have any good shorts yer lookin' at? And what's your bias for the broader market at the moment? Dow at support and ready to do a little 'b' up on the daily now ya think??

[spikefader]

Lye, PARL sets up brilliantly for a short at current levels intraday $8.95 to target +44% with 5% stop over recent price resistance. Reward/risk is almost 10, which is great. Supporting TA is the weekly fuzzy C failures I've posted before, favorable count on the daily, and a descending triangle pattern the last 3 days.

+43% in 6 days from that entry, which only experienced 1% in the red before a good strong trend down and today's dump.

[Rob]

+43% in 6 days from that entry, which only experienced 1% in the red before a good strong trend down and today's dump.

That was a good call, Spike. No question about it. So are you covering?

[Lyehopper]

+43% in 6 days from that entry, which only experienced 1% in the red before a good strong trend down and today's dump.

Great call Spike!.... I've really got to study your FSWP (Fuzzy Spike Wave Pattern) count dude.

Do me a favor please?.... How about posting a chart on ALLI and show me what I should have been looking for there dude. Thanks!

Wassup Lye! This thread is too quiet!

Hey Spike, as for my lack of posting lately?.... I'm a little burned out with this market and mad at myself for making a few stupid mistakes. If you are on the positive side (and you've been actively trading since the spring) you are very GOOD imo.... I am down for the year.... More than I normally allow myself to be. So I'm regrouping a bit and sitting back mostly in ca$h for now (Louetta and Webs are smart to be in ca$h)....

I've been busy with (second) hay cutting and other farm related "stuff"..... But what's consuming most of my time is this.... My company is in the midst of an expansion (new facilities). Some of my key people are taking vacations so I've been covering for them (been working some long hours).

You see, over the past few years I've stepped back a bit from the daily operations of my Corp.... Being back "in the thick of things" has made me want to implement some "new ideas." So I've decided to focus more on my own Corporation right now.... My backlog has flattened out somewhat and I want to spot any possible slowing trends and make a concerted effort to head off possible slowing growth with creative (stepped-up) sales efforts. I also want to improving our mfg processes and productivity and increase capacity without increasing capitol expenditures in machinery and equipment (I have a few nervous employees right now.lol).... I know this for sure.... With present conditions I can't seem to make money in the stock market by investing in other folks Companies.... But I sure know how to make a profit with my own Corporation. So, you might not see as much posting from Lyehoppper right now, but.... I'll be lurking.... and I'll be "back"!!!!

[spikefader]

Great call Spike!.... I've really got to study your FSWP (Fuzzy Spike Wave Pattern) count dude.

Do me a favor please?.... How about posting a chart on ALLI and show me what I should have been looking for there dude. Thanks!

Hey Spike, as for my lack of posting lately?.... I'm a little burned out with this market and mad at myself for making a few stupid mistakes. If you are on the positive side (and you've been actively trading since the spring) you are very GOOD imo.... I am down for the year.... More than I normally allow myself to be. So I'm regrouping a bit and sitting back mostly in ca$h for now (Louetta and Webs are smart to be in ca$h)....

I've been busy with (second) hay cutting and other farm related "stuff"..... But what's consuming most of my time is this.... My company is in the midst of an expansion (new facilities). Some of my key people are taking vacations so I've been covering for them (been working some long hours).

You see, over the past few years I've stepped back a bit from the daily operations of my Corp.... Being back "in the thick of things" has made me want to implement some "new ideas." So I've decided to focus more on my own Corporation right now.... My backlog has flattened out somewhat and I want to spot any possible slowing trends and make a concerted effort to head off possible slowing growth with creative (stepped-up) sales efforts. I also want to improving our mfg processes and productivity and increase capacity without increasing capitol expenditures in machinery and equipment (I have a few nervous employees right now.lol).... I know this for sure.... With present conditions I can't seem to make money in the stock market by investing in other folks Companies.... But I sure know how to make a profit with my own Corporation. So, you might not see as much posting from Lyehoppper right now, but.... I'll be lurking.... and I'll be "back"!!!!

Hey Lye, well I will miss your regular posts while you're in lurk-mode! but good luck in your new focuses and enjoy the break from posting. As for mistakes, the market never stops teaching us all about risk and self discipline, does it? I know I never stop learning. I guess all we can do is just keep trying to bite the bullet and take those little hits while avoiding the knockout punches.

For ALLI, sure thing. I actually posted the bullish inverted SHS setup chart on July 25th, right at the R shoulder and it ran bullish for about 9%? before failing. It was a valid pattern that just failed...logical stop was breakeven after that profit, or at worst under the head. Chart is here: http://img113.imageshack.us/img113/5...ijuly25be5.gif

In hindsight, I draw your attention to this group of charts:

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/5337/allichartszs3.gif

The top 3 are parabolic with money flow index. The monthly and weekly were firmly bearish, and the last daily flip to bear gave a day's warning before the dump. The bottom 3 charts show bollinger bands with settings of 100 and 2.5, which are unusually high but it's one of my most important ways to check that I'm on the right bias for a chart. See the daily band action in May? Closing values below a bollinger band is a very bearish thing. The weekly and monthly charts don't have enough bars yet to show the bands, but I do note that the monthly charts shows it's been in a 3 impulsive down since February.

The fuzzy on the daily is worthwhile noting too. Yet another fine example of a fuzzy C resistance selling hard. And actually, on that inverted SHS weekly chart I linked, it has the count too...with it doing the correctives.....and it gave a short C and sold hard on the weekly too.



Best to ya dude!

[IIC]

Lye...I hear ya...I've been green every year since 1983 when I got serious about investing...I am down 18% this year after being up 30% a few months ago...I made some very stupid moves...But I will not give up...Sometimes I have taken a few months off but I still followed the action...I know what I did wrong and I have no one to blame but myself...However, I am still optimistic that I will be green this year...No problem...I know I will do it...Best, Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

Lye...I hear ya...I've been green every year since 1983 when I got serious about investing...I am down 18% this year after being up 30% a few months ago...I made some very stupid moves...But I will not give up...Sometimes I have taken a few months off but I still followed the action...I know what I did wrong and I have no one to blame but myself...However, I am still optimistic that I will be green this year...No problem...I know I will do it...Best, Doug(IIC)

DEF, I'm optimistic I'll be green by year end too....

Hey fellas!.... Forbes ranked Virginia #1 as the most business friendly state, I already knew that though.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/9/06beststates_The-Best-States-For-Business_land.html

[Websman]

DEF, I'm optimistic I'll be green by year end too....

Hey fellas!.... Forbes ranked Virginia #1 as the most business friendly state, I already knew that though.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/9/0...ness_land.html

Virginia may be the best state for business, but Florida is the best state for partying.

[B.J]

Fla's also a good state for paying taxes (hard to beat NONE)

[Lyehopper]

Fla's also a good state for paying taxes (hard to beat NONE)

Can't argue with that BJ.... What is the sales tax rate in Flordia? (VA is 5%).... With all the tourism and retail sales generated in Flordia they don't need to charge income tax. Plus they lure in more consumer/residents by the no state tax law.... SMART!