Doctor Jack's Stock Medicine

**billyjoe** · 05-27-2006, 11:50 AM

Lye,
Last year I had a similar encounter with a hitch and it was more painful than childbirth.
billyjoe

**Lyehopper** · 05-27-2006, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Websman

I usually get injured at least once a year. This past year, I dropped 6 feet off of a ladder after the step broke on me. I was brusied from head to toe. The year before I broke a finger with a pipe wrench...jejeje

LOL!.... You sound like me dude. I walked into a cross member in my barn at about forhead level last year at full stride and about broke my freakin' neck (I was carring something and I was looking down and forgot to duck, It knocked me to my knees)..... I was also thrown from my four wheel'r last year (700cc). I flew through the air and fell flat on my back. It knocked me out for a while. I came to and laughed as I layed on the ground because I couldn't beleive I was actually alive.

I have twelve weaned steer calves (about seven-weights) in a barn lot and I feed then grain every day. I just fed them before I came to the house for lunch just now. I pour the grain in a long feed trough and they line up in a row to eat.... A crazy thought came to me as I watched them eating. I thought how easy it would be to just run up behind one and jump on his back "Steve McQueen style" and see how long I could stay on.LOL!.... I thought about for about a minute and then I laughed to myself.... I decided I'm just too old for that kinda stuff anymore.... So I didn't.

**IIC** · 05-27-2006, 12:32 PM

You guys should be more careful...Now I could see Webs gettin' hurt once in a while...Never know when Bubba might go wacko when someone slurps his soup in the prison mess hall...But I think Lye oughtta retire.

I've been in many close calls over the years though...One time I bot this book about hiking trails in the San Gabriel Mountains...It was 1990 and my son was 10 so I picked an Easy one...When we got to the trailhead there was a sign that said something like DANGER...Trail washed out...DO NOT ENTER!!!

Well we did anyway...I had on some old tennis shoes and we got to a point where the trail was sorta gone...It was about a 300 foot drop to one side so I told him to be careful. Wouldn't you know it...I slipped and started sliding towards the edge...Fortunately I grabbed a little plant. So I'm laying there asking him to grab my other hand but he wouldn't do it. I was able climb up on my belly and all was OK...When we walked back to the car I asked him why he wouldn't grab my hand?...He said..."Because I wasn't gonna go over the cliff with you".

I've had a few other hiking "Near Disasters" but never actually got hurt.

I just remembered that I cut my hand on a knife in 1983 and had to go to the emergency hospital for some stitches. The only other times I had to go to the emergency room was when I got stung by some Portuguese Man 'O Wars in Galveston and I got bit by a dog both in 1961...I had to get shots both times....Doug

**Websman** · 05-27-2006, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Lyehopper

LOL!.... You sound like me dude. I walked into a cross member in my barn at about forhead level last year at full stride and about broke my freakin' neck (I was carring something and I was looking down and forgot to duck, It knocked me to my knees)..... I was also thrown from my four wheel'r last year (700cc). I flew through the air and fell flat on my back. It knocked me out for a while. I came to and laughed as I layed on the ground because I couldn't beleive I was actually alive.

I have twelve weaned steer calves (about seven-weights) in a barn lot and I feed then grain every day. I just fed them before I came to the house for lunch just now. I pour the grain in a long feed trough and they line up in a row to eat.... A crazy thought came to me as I watched them eating. I thought how easy it would be to just run up behind one and jump on his back "Steve McQueen style" and see how long I could stay on.LOL!.... I thought about for about a minute and then I laughed to myself.... I decided I'm just too old for that kinda stuff anymore.... So I didn't.

Dude, I just got off the roof...being it's a metal roof, I have to check the screws every few years to make sure they're tight. I didn't get hurt this time, but I'm soaked in sweat. I'm not afraid of work.

Maybe we can have a calve riding competion sometime. I might do a little better, since I'm half your size.
Yea...that's it. A Vulcan calf rider competition.

Dang... I think we've hijacked the Doc's thread. Sorry Doc. LOL

**Jack Haddad** · 05-28-2006, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by peanuts

You didn't ask me, but I want to chime in here: I don't know about a bottom recently, it is possible, but what I want to bring to the table is this: Goto stockcharts and put in the 13 day moving average and look at SPX, INDU, and COMPQ... not one of them was able to surpass the 13 day moving average today... We need to blast through them on Monday or I would be worried that another "bottom" might happen...

I am also concerned that we are green on lower volume.

here a link to the chart I use: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CO...d=p65139022196

damn market has me spooked

We had 3 consecutive rally days last week... Come this Tuesday, I'd like to see another 1.2 to 1.5 percent increase in any of the indexes (preferably the Dow) on heavier volume before I can say that a lower bottom is due.

**Jack Haddad** · 05-28-2006, 03:41 AM

Originally posted by Websman

Cool...an Orthopedic surgeon!

Ok Jack...Here's my story. At the young age of 14 (1979) I had an operation performed on my left knee By Dr Robert Goodman in Lexington Kentucky. The injury consisted of an avulsion of the tibial tubercle with rupture of the medial collateral ligament. There was also some disruption of the posterior medial aspect of the capsule.

After I was prepped for surgery, Dr Goodman made an 8" lazy s-incision over the medial aspect of the left knee, which was carried down to the level of the retinaculum. The retinaculum appeared to be intact, but there was a small puncture hole about the size of a finger tip on the posterior medial aspect of the capsule which went right through retinaculum into the joint space. Then the incision was carried on through the retinaculum and was reflected by blunt dissection. At this time, it was obvious that I had an avulsion of the deep part of the medial collateral ligament in its lower third portion. At this time attention was turned to the joint and a 6 cm parapatellar incision was made through the retinaculum, capsular and synovial structures. At this time it was obvious that I had a small 1 cm trinagular avulsion of the anterior tibial tubercle with base being anteriorly. The anterior cruciate was intact other than being disrupted at this point and a repair was then undertaken. At this time then two drill holes were made with a 7/16th drill approximately 1 1/2 cms below the joint line and medial to the patellar tendon. Then through a pole wire technique a 0 silk suture was passed through and then looped through the anterior cruciate ligament twice and then with the leg in approximately 10 degrees of flexion and internally rotated the anterior cruciate and the bony avulsion was then back in position. The synovial structure was repaired with 2-0 plain and capsular structures were reapproximated with 2-0 chromic. Then attention was turned to the medial collateral ligament. A small Boyd staple was then passed through the deep portion of the medial collateral ligament and replaced upon the medial femoral condyle. This concluded repairs and the joint was closed up in the ordinary manner.

So...I had this procedure and was told that my knee would be 100% again. To this date I have not gained full flexibility of this particular joint, plus on occasion, I suffer from serious cramping of my knee at night. Other than that, it works fine.

Dr Jack...this operation was performed quite a few years ago. Would you consider the techiniques I just described as being antiquated or obsolete? Is it possible to ever regain full flexibility in this joint?

Just wondering...

By the way, Welcome to the board. Enough of the medical talk...Let's talk trading!

As you stated, the surgery was performed nearly 25 years ago. With respect to the torn Medial collateral ligaments, I never heard of a Boyd Staple. The repair of choice is to use a monofilament K-wire in a figure 8 and anchor the torn ligament to the bone; I wouldn't anchor it to the femoral chondyle but to the posterior aspect of the femur's ridge... There is more stability there.

Have you had an MRI recently? It will be interesting to view the alignment of the joint. My guess is that you probably have internal tibial rotation of the lower leg and external femoral rotation, causing a transverse stress on your knee joint? I also wonder if there are any arthritic changes present (osteophyte production).

**skiracer** · 05-28-2006, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by peanuts

You didn't ask me, but I want to chime in here: I don't know about a bottom recently, it is possible, but what I want to bring to the table is this: Goto stockcharts and put in the 13 day moving average and look at SPX, INDU, and COMPQ... not one of them was able to surpass the 13 day moving average today... We need to blast through them on Monday or I would be worried that another "bottom" might happen...

I am also concerned that we are green on lower volume.

here a link to the chart I use: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CO...d=p65139022196

damn market has me spooked

Peanuts,
What reasoning brought you to the 13 ma as a line in the sand. Most accepted moving averages as major resistance or support lines are the 50 and the 200. I also like an use the EMA 20 as a support/resistance line in my decision making process. I would like to hear why you chose the 13 day simple moving average.

**peanuts** · 05-28-2006, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by skiracer

Peanuts,
What reasoning brought you to the 13 ma as a line in the sand. Most accepted moving averages as major resistance or support lines are the 50 and the 200. I also like an use the EMA 20 as a support/resistance line in my decision making process. I would like to hear why you chose the 13 day simple moving average.

I use the 13 day for short term movements. Do an experiment yourself on it. It's not something I religiously follow, but it has really helped to me determine good price points to watch for on all charts in a short term time frame. Also, I use a 7 day RSI for this same reason, and a 150 day moving average for quarterly reports price timing. I really don't know how this stuff works. I am subconsciously familiar with using these indicators. I have used them for over a year, and I can't remember any literature of why exactly they work. They work for me because I am familiar with the patterns by now. I've been using it every day for 1+ years. The 13 day on all 3 indices raises my eyebrows, because that means that over the past 2 weeks, the indices average is just about where they closed on Friday... thier closing prices are at a key inflection point for a short term move, whether up or down. If down, I think we can take out the recently made "bottom." If higher, it may confirm the recent bottom as the long term bottom. It will be an important point for me to watch.

You are corrrect on the 50 day and 200 day as standard. However, 10 day MA counts in only 2 weeks. A 13 day does more, because it catches the 3 days prior to the moves made in the 10 days used in a 10 day MA. That's another reason for using the 13 day MA. It adds in the factor of, "what was going on before the recent avg."

**Rob** · 05-28-2006, 09:32 AM

Tales of the Painful

I see the momentum of the conversation has somewhat shifted to bragging about injuries. Well check this out. See the picture below? That is a granite structure that rises about 500' above the adjacent lake. It's called "Elephant Rock" in Alpine Co., CA.

In 1972 at the age of fifteen, two friends and I scaled that sucker. On the way back down, about 1/3 of the way, one of the others dislodged a watermelon-sized boulder that struck me on the left collar bone and sent me the 2nd 1/3 of the way down in a matter of seconds. There is no way I should have survived, but a narrow ledge abruptly broke my fall. With several broken bones and bleeding profusely, I raised my head and tried to breathe but couldn't, and I passed out. The others, who were then about 125' above me or more, thought surely I was dead. I don't know how much time had passed, but the next thing I knew they were right next to me. It was still too steep for them to carry me, and I had to climb the rest of the way down myself with minimal assistance.

They carried me to the Ford station wagon we had come in, and I bled all over the upholstry on the way to the hospital, which I have been told was about 75 miles away. I'll spare you the agonizing details of my painful emergency room experience, during which I was awake the whole time. Afterward, I had to sleep in a sitting position for a month because I couldn't breathe when I laid flat on my back. I was messed up pretty bad. Some people say I still am.

p.s. Jack, I agree with whoever the poster was who said "sorry" because it appears we have "hijacked" your thread, but I just wanted to relate this in the context of the other tales of the painful.

**skiracer** · 05-28-2006, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by peanuts

I use the 13 day for short term movements. Do an experiment yourself on it. It's not something I religiously follow, but it has really helped to me determine good price points to watch for on all charts in a short term time frame. Also, I use a 7 day RSI for this same reason, and a 150 day moving average for quarterly reports price timing. I really don't know how this stuff works. I am subconsciously familiar with using these indicators. I have used them for over a year, and I can't remember any literature of why exactly they work. They work for me because I am familiar with the patterns by now. I've been using it every day for 1+ years. The 13 day on all 3 indices raises my eyebrows, because that means that over the past 2 weeks, the indices average is just about where they closed on Friday... thier closing prices are at a key inflection point for a short term move, whether up or down. If down, I think we can take out the recently made "bottom." If higher, it may confirm the recent bottom as the long term bottom. It will be an important point for me to watch.

You are corrrect on the 50 day and 200 day as standard. However, 10 day MA counts in only 2 weeks. A 13 day does more, because it catches the 3 days prior to the moves made in the 10 days used in a 10 day MA. That's another reason for using the 13 day MA. It adds in the factor of, "what was going on before the recent avg."

I was just curious as to your explanation why you use the 13 day. If it works for you to a positive result in positioning yourself for setups then that's all that counts. I can understand an appreciate your reasoning. Personally I like a longer period but in reality 20 days vs 13 days isn't that big of a time difference. I would like to hear anyone else's take on what ema's or ma's they prefer and why.

**IIC** · 05-28-2006, 09:50 AM

I forget where I read this...but seems to me that somebody suggests 13/50 sma crossovers as a good scan for new ideas...I tried it but didn't really come up with much...IIC

**Jack Haddad** · 05-28-2006, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Rob

I see the momentum of the conversation has somewhat shifted to bragging about injuries. Well check this out. See the picture below? That is a granite structure that rises about 500' above the adjacent lake. It's called "Elephant Rock" in Alpine Co., CA.

In 1972 at the age of fifteen, two friends and I scaled that sucker. On the way back down, about 1/3 of the way, one of the others dislodged a watermelon-sized boulder that struck me on the left collar bone and sent me the 2nd 1/3 of the way down in a matter of seconds. There is no way I should have survived, but a narrow ledge abruptly broke my fall. With several broken bones and bleeding profusely, I raised my head and tried to breathe but couldn't, and I passed out. The others, who were then about 125' above me or more, thought surely I was dead. I don't know how much time had passed, but the next thing I knew they were right next to me. It was still too steep for them to carry me, and I had to climb the rest of the way down myself with minimal assistance.

They carried me to the Ford station wagon we had come in, and I bled all over the upholstry on the way to the hospital, which I have been told was about 75 miles away. I'll spare you the agonizing details of my painful emergency room experience, during which I was awake the whole time. Afterward, I had to sleep in a sitting position for a month because I couldn't breathe when I laid flat on my back. I was messed up pretty bad. Some people say I still am.

p.s. Jack, I agree with whoever the poster was who said "sorry" because it appears we have "hijacked" your thread, but I just wanted to relate this in the context of the other tales of the painful.

Rob, no need to apalogize for anything... In fact, I welcome additional medical questions/postings; they compel me to stay charp edged on the medical literature.

**Jack Haddad** · 05-28-2006, 04:30 PM

The housing market

According to James Welsh, The Financial Commentator, in the nest 2 years, 25% of all mortgages will be increased with some as much as 50%! I'm beginning to see that here in the Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County. 15,670 default notices were issued in the past 3 months to homeowners-- very freightning. Also, the default rate in Santa Cruz, CA has risen to a scandelous 62.8% from the same period last year, according to county records.

It's a shame how banks lured everyone into a borrowing spree with teaser rates and other promotions. Almost everyone borrowed agianst their primary home to either purchase a second investment home, pay credit card bills or renovate their homes. In sum, the consumer is over-extended with debt. I keep telling everyone that thus far we had one bubble-- which is the collapse of the nasdaq in 2000. We still have 2 more-- the housing bubble and the consumer debt bubble!

Contrary to the above statistics, hedge funds have been buying into oversold distressed homebuilders. According to Research Director at Rochdale Securities and SAC Capital, hedge funds are taking stakes in homebuilding stocks. Tontine Partners took a 9.98% stake in Beazer Homes USA , just six weeks after the Atlanta builder announced an aggressive 200 to 250 million share repurchase program for 2006. Others with outsize cash hoards, up to 10% to 14% of their market caps, are following suit. Centex, Toll Brothers, Brookfield Homes, and Pulte Homes have all announced plans to buy back shares.

I still think the entire sector is severely undervalued at 7 times 2006 estimated earnings. That said, trading opportunites with TOL, and HOV are presenting an excellent set-ups.

Comments? Opinions?

**rivercitydan** · 05-28-2006, 05:37 PM

Tol, Hov And Other Homebuilders

Builders have a glut of homes created by overbuilding and now higher rates. I see that a Kansas City builder is offering a new prepaid lease on a BMW if you will buy one of his homes.
The homebuilders have gotten cheaper that is for sure. If you are in tol, or beazer you have seen half or more of your money disappear. My experience indicates that there is more downside on both of these issues. Of course they will bounce these issues periodically to suck you in. The truth is that when they kill them they kill them irregardless of earnings. Hedge funds alone have enough money to bounce these issues, and sell the bounce to you. I will wait and be patient for prolonged sideways movement and true signs of bottoming. There is no hurry in my opinion. The market environment is grossly negative, contrary to what you hear. By mid to late summer you will see how
bad it can get.

RCD

**DSteckler** · 05-28-2006, 05:51 PM

The relative group strength of the Builders - Residential/Commercial group has been improving the last few weeks, rising from 4 to 11 (I'm using a three-week lookback on RS). This coincides with several days of lows around 80.25 - 80.75.

In the group, TOL is the 5th best performing stock and HOV is the 12th best performing stock (out of 24 companies). Earnings estimates for the next two quarters are much better in TOL than HOV.

LEN, which has a higher RS rank within the group than HOV, also has better estimates. ROE for LEN is about the same as HOV but cash flow per share is better ($9.22 vs. $8.05) and LEN's P/E is lower. OTOH, HOV's float is 1/4 that of LEN's so a push into the sector will give a bigger bang in HOV than LEN.

The homebuilder's index ($HGX) completed a five wave impulse move down (4/7 - 5/24) and may be starting a corrective wave up.