Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

The "Price Not Keeping Up With Growth" Screen

Rob...what would you consider Outstanding?...Also, sales growth over what period? Also again...What is etc?...thx...Doug(IIC)

Well, Doug, let's just put it this way: the minimum R.O.E. is higher than that which William O'neill says to look for. The sales growth has one parameter for the last twelve months and another for the past five years, both of which would put these companies in an elite group. The etc. is an EPS parameter that would further weed out some companies that get too happy with spending or that suck the coffers dry by granting options left and right. With all of that wonderful stuff, and yet their price per share, compared to what it was a year ago, being below a certain level, I figure this might yield a group of stocks worth checking into. I only started tracking this screen yesterday. I want to see how it does over a period of time. How 'bout that UTHR though, eh?

[Rob]

It seems to be working on a bottom. What seems to be forming is an inverted head and shoulders pattern. I am looking for MFLX to move downward again, like the green line, then move up and break the neckline for a solidly bullish chart. In fact I am going to try to buy the right shoulder.

Interesting theory, New-born. If it proves to be right, then the bottom has been put in ... at the lowest point of the head on the H&S pattern. Of course we all know that, as John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational for longer than we can remain solvent, but I still am of the opinion that there isn't a great deal of further downside risk with MFLX.

[DSteckler]

It seems to be working on a bottom. What seems to be forming is an inverted head and shoulders pattern. I am looking for MFLX to move downward again, like the green line, then move up and break the neckline for a solidly bullish chart. In fact I am going to try to buy the right shoulder.

There's no neckline yet, NBB. If/when it forms, use the 5/30 high as the left shoulder.

[Rob]

The "Price Not Keeping Up With Growth" Screen Results

Here are the results of the 15 companies that emerged from my PNKUWG screen:

Note: the opening prices are from Thursday.

[Rob]

Momentum Screen Results

And here are the results of my momentum screen mentioned earlier:

Note: The opening prices on these are from Wednesday's open.

[IIC]

OK...I don't expect you to give away the farm...But one thing to consider is that what is considered good in one industry group may not be so hot in another...Just food for thought...Thx...Doug(IIC)

[spikefader]

Rob,
CHK appears on msn money's site for 50 top rated fundamental stocks.
VPHM is on list of magic formula investings 's top 50 for earnings yield and return on capital.
---------billyjoe

Sounds like a good list for parabolic filtering!

[spikefader]

There's no neckline yet, NBB. If/when it forms, use the 5/30 high as the left shoulder.

Agree. But that is a very nice shade of green NB

[Rob]

Off Topic

I just learned this morning that TV producer Aaron Spelling died at age 83. I remember meeting him once when I worked for a solid year ('89-'90) on his house he built in Holmby Hills, CA. His wife, Candy, was a more frequent presence at the job site.


From an AP story:

The Spellings' most publicized extravagance was their
56,500-square-foot French chateau in Holmby Hills.
The couple bought the former Bing Crosby estate for
$10 million and leveled it to the ground, along with
two other houses. Construction cost was estimated at
$12 million.

I can tell you that estimate is way low. The scuttlebutt I heard at the time had the cost at more than three times that.

Out of curiosity one day on lunch break I counted all the doors on that house, interior and exterior. There were more than 500. It was a pretty awesome place.

I remember hanging the front doors. It was a pair of custom-made 3'-0" x 7'-0" x 2½" red oak doors that were so heavy it took three guys to carry one. (To this day I think those doors had steel inside 'em or something.) Each one was hung on three pairs of 5"x5" solid brass butts.

The basement had (among other things) a doll museum for Candy's doll collection, a huge wine cellar, and a two-lane bowling alley. Her dressing room on the 2nd floor was more than 2,000 sq. ft. It's a wild place.

[Lyehopper]

I just learned this morning that TV producer Aaron Spelling died at age 83. I remember meeting him once when I worked for a solid year ('89-'90) on his house he built in Holmby Hills, CA. His wife, Candy, was a more frequent presence at the job site.



From an AP story:

The Spellings' most publicized extravagance was their
56,500-square-foot French chateau in Holmby Hills.
The couple bought the former Bing Crosby estate for
$10 million and leveled it to the ground, along with
two other houses. Construction cost was estimated at
$12 million.

I can tell you that estimate is way low. The scuttlebutt I heard at the time had the cost at more than three times that.

Out of curiosity one day on lunch break I counted all the doors on that house, interior and exterior. There were more than 500. It was a pretty awesome place.

I remember hanging the front doors. It was a pair of custom-made 3'-0" x 7'-0" x 2½" red oak doors that were so heavy it took three guys to carry one. (To this day I think those doors had steel inside 'em or something.) Each one was hung on three pairs of 5"x5" solid brass butts.

The basement had (among other things) a doll museum for Candy's doll collection, a huge wine cellar, and a two-lane bowling alley. Her dressing room on the 2nd floor was more than 2,000 sq. ft. It's a wild place.

Mrs. Lye and me were talking about Aaron Spelling this morning as we ate waffles. She said that the ongoing rift between him and his daughter may have put undue stress on him. So I got to thinkin' about how short life is and how useless material things really are to happiness. It made me think of Ambrose.

Down the road from me lives an old man named Ambrose. Ol Ambrose is in his mid 80's still drives his truck around, has a pack of rabbit beagles and two coon dogs. He deer hunts with his sons and grandsons every fall. He tends to his farm and has a small herd of beef cattle. Ambrose and his wife live in a tidy small white wood frame farmhouse with a screened front porch and a pretty flowers planted in the front yard. I saw him watering his vegetable garden just yesterday.... I beeped the horn at him and he waved at me and smiled. In comparing Ambrose to Aaron..... I'd rather live Ambrose's life, PLUS he's still very much ALIVE!

[IIC]

E. Pierce Marshall died yesterday too:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-06-24T080116Z_01_N24326326_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARSHALL.xml&archived=False

[Rob]

The Momo Screen

Here, in alphabetical order, are the stocks that materialized in the momentum screen:

ALB ARP AVA AZN CASY CINF COOP CRN CTRP CTSH DAKT ECHO EPAX FORR FRC GRMN HAIN HOLX IDCC LIFC OPSW PAYX RVSB SBUX SMDI WFR

[Rob]

Price Not Keeping Up With Growth

On running my PNKUWG screen, this time it produced only 13 stocks. Here they are, in alphabetical order:

ANR ATA ECA FRGB HW LEND NVT NXTP PVR TARR TGA UTHR XTO

[Rob]

JLG Is Probably A Good Buy

P/E 14.88
PEG 0.45
ROA 12.05%
ROE 25.83%

[IIC]

In regards to JLG...Here is one thing I watch for...I use the MACD in different time frames...That was my secret to calling MACD crossovers before they crossover...Doug(IIC)