Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

How Stock Options Rob Shareholders

A good article I read this morning: How Stock Options Rob Shareholders by Michael Brush. Good stuff.

[spikefader]

IMCL is up 9%+ since this post. Are you yet convinced? This stock has been bottoming for almost two years. That recent foray into the lower 40s was a harbinger of more to come, IMO.

I don't have a magic formula for calculating its valuation, but I've been following this company like a hawk for so long, I have a pretty good "feel" for it. The fact that the stock is up significantly today on the resignation of two board members, David M. Kies, Chmn., and William W. Crouse, despite a cut today in the Q4 Erbitux sales forecast by an analyst, underscores what I've been saying, i.e. that the undervaluation of this company is largely due to the perception that its management has been incompetent.

I should have played it in the POTW this week; it's up almost 6% since the Monday open.

Nope, sorry Rob, I'm not convinced yet. The TA is what it is. And with respect, I don't call that a 2-year bottom formation. It is more accurately a bearish triangle formation. Channel-wise, it's suffering from crashes and busts, turn downs, and a recent profit-taking tag. When the charts look bullish I'll tell ya.

And the first thing it has to do is get over $34.00. If that happens I'd have to rechart it, so I'll put a stop on my bias there.

For now, a +9% move and your fine FA isn't enough to make me hop on the bus. I'd rather watch to see how the new busdriver goes. Right now, the bus is heading for the gorge with brake trouble. But hey, we all know that TA patterns get broken all the time. IMCL could well just do that. And if/when it does I'll be hollerin' buy it. Right now, I'm hollerin' sell it. By the way, where are you long from, and are you using a stop?

http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/10/13/imcl/

[Rob]

SunPower (SPWR)

SunPower Announces High Power, Higher Efficiency Solar Panel
Monday October 16, 8:00 am ET
315 Watt Panel Based On New 22 Percent Efficient Gen 2 Solar Cell Technology

SAN JOSE, Calif., Oct. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SunPower Corporation (Nasdaq: SPWR - News), a Silicon Valley-based manufacturer of the world's highest efficiency, commercially available solar cells and solar panels, today announced its newest solar panel, offering significantly higher power output and conversion efficiency than its current products. The new SPR-315 solar panel utilizes the company's newly developed 22-percent-efficient Gen 2 solar cells and carries a rated power output of 315 watts.

"SunPower continues to lead the solar industry with its innovative technology and smart design," said Peter Aschenbrenner, vice president of marketing and sales. "Our new SPR-315 solar panel breaks the 300 watt power barrier while offering even higher efficiency than SunPower's previous industry-leading products.

SunPower will showcase its SPR-315 high power solar panel at this week's Solar Power 2006 Conference and Expo in San Jose, Calif. The new design incorporates 96 of SunPower's Gen 2 solar cells that offer improved panel efficiency through a combination of enhanced cell architecture and improved packing density. Compared with conventional solar panels, the new SPR-315 allows customers to generate up to 50 percent more power per square foot of roof area with half as many panels.

Aschenbrenner added, "The new SPR-315 solar panel enables our customers to generate more power with fewer panels - maximizing energy production while reducing installation cost. A typical 4 kilowatt (AC rating) solar system requires 30 conventional 160 watt panels and covers 410 square feet of roof space. Our new SPR 315 panels produce an equivalent amount of power using only 15 solar panels on 265 square feet."

SunPower's solar panels have no moving parts, creating pollution-free electricity with no noise and low maintenance. In addition, due to SunPower's all back contact solar cell design, its high-tech, high-performance solar panels perform better than most other solar panels during cloudy or hot weather.

The new SPR-315 solar panel is planned for commercial availability in the Spring of 2007.

[Rob]

JLG Bought by OSK

June 25: Rob informs you that JLG, at $19.29 is "probably a good buy."

Oct. 16: JLG is bought by Oshkosh Truck (OSK) for $28/share.

That's a 43.66% gain in 113 days, which equals an annualized return of 222.29%.

Lawd!

[Rob]

OVTI - Wow

OVTI is an awesome company . . . when I run across stories such as this one, I'm tempted to start following it again.

OVTI is rockin' and rollin' again today (a little pullback in the last few minutes) but it's up about 12% since that post on 9/29. "Did you buy any, Rob?" No, I didn't.

[spikefader]

Like it....like it....

Very nice! Thanks for the headsup, Rob.

[Rob]

Spwr

The only caveat emptor I would include is that they report earnings later this week (Thursday?) And we all know how risky/rewardy that can be, especially with a company that went public less than a year ago.

[Rob]

XRTX - I See Potential

I only bought one contract of each. One Oct $20 call (TQRJD) @ 0.85 and one Oct $17.50 put (TQRVW) @ 1.00 on XRTX.

I'm starting to like the looks of this. Depending on how things go the rest of the week, I just may choose to exercise that call option.

Link to latest chart

[grebnet]

Ivac

Have you ever looked at IVAC ? I like the looks of it and have a partial fill order at 17.87... just looking for other thoughts.

[Rob]

Have you ever looked at IVAC ? ... just looking for other thoughts.

Right off the bat I see a few things I like about it. Ever since the beginning of last year their year-over-year quarterly revenue growth has been pretty spectacular, they have no long-term debt and enough cash to cover their current liabilities. One thing about companies with no debt is that they won't be filing for bankruptcy anytime soon.

[grebnet]

Ivac

My thoughts too. My screen looks at yr over yr , and qtr over qtr growth, with low debt ,and + earnings.

[Rob]

Economic Thought for the Day

“While economic textbooks claim that people
and corporations are competing for markets
and resources, I claim that in reality they
are competing for money—using markets and
resources to do so. Greed and fear of scarcity
are being continuously created and amplified
as a direct result of the kind of money we are
using. For example, we can produce more than
enough food to feed everybody, and there is
definitely enough work for everybody in the
world, but there is clearly not enough money
to pay for it all. In fact, the job of central
banks is to create and maintain that currency
scarcity. Money is created when banks lend it
into existence. When a bank provides you with a
$100,000 mortgage, it creates only the
principal, which you spend and which then
circulates in the economy. The bank expects
you to pay back $200,000 over the next 20
years, but it doesn't create the second
$100,000—the interest. Instead, the bank
sends you out into the tough world to battle
against everybody else to bring back the
second $100,000.”—Bernard Lietaer, Former
Central Banker

[Rob]

GOOG Reports Earnings Today

GOOG reports earnings today after the close. The expectation, according to Yahoo, is $2.42/share, a mere 9¢ above the Q2 number. Rob is guessing closer to $2.55, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[Rob]

Basically It's All Good

GOOG reports earnings today after the close. The expectation, according to Yahoo, is $2.42/share, a mere 9¢ above the Q2 number. Rob is guessing closer to $2.55, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Okay, so they only made $2.36/share. Still, their revenue was up 70% over Q3 last year. The revenue totaled a paltry $2.69 thousand million, compared to $1.58 thousand million last year.

This bodes well for the stock, eh, BillyJoe?

Since that particular image capture, it's selling back down to around $436. Just some impatient people ringing the register. Do I look scared? Whoops, now it's back up in the $450s again.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
You da man !!

---------billyjoe