Rob's Lobs

[Runner]

My current EBAY long position is close to +16%, so I set a 5% trailing stop under it. I have mixed feelings about doing that, but, as the saying goes, "better safe than sorry."

Rob, very nice plan as a 10-11% profit is very nice.

[Rob]

Rob, very nice plan as a 10-11% profit is very nice.

Yes, Runner, I agree. And as it so happens, that stop is resetting higher and higher as we speak.

[spikefader]

Spike, I've composed two different replies to your note, neither of which I chose to post, because I don't want to start another fight. Bottom line: if you're so convinced IMCL is going down, just let me know at what price you're shorting it.

What a mature and polite reply this is! SssSss.

[New-born baby]

Goog

Rob,
GOOG is right up against its range bound resistance: $416. If GOOG pulls back here, well, that has been the normal thing of late. IF GOOG busts out from here, a couple days sustained above $416 turns that resistance right into support, and you are sitting pretty.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
GOOG is right up against its range bound resistance: $416. If GOOG pulls back here, well, that has been the normal thing of late. IF GOOG busts out from here, a couple days sustained above $416 turns that resistance right into support, and you are sitting pretty.

New-born,
Cramer has said 500 numerous times lately.

--------------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

New-born,
Cramer has said 500 numerous times lately.

--------------billyjoe

Oh.
I don't watch/listen to Cramer. My ignorance.

[Rob]

Insteel Industies, Inc. (IIIN)

Current P/E is around 13.

The triangle is actually pretty symmetrical if you plot it on a log scale chart.

Financials

[Rob]

Will YouTube Become GoogTube?

It is rumored that .... well, just read it for yourself:

Completely Unsubstantiated Google/YouTube Rumor

[skiracer]

Current P/E is around 13.

The triangle is actually pretty symmetrical if you plot it on a log scale chart.

Financials

Definitely symetrical. Should be bullish but I don't think so for today.

[Rob]

Definitely symetrical. Should be bullish but I don't think so for today.

This lob was not intended to suggest anyone buy IIIN today, or even to predict it's a future winner. But I posted it as one to keep on the radar. Wouldn't you love to have bought it at the beginning of 06?

Edit: Just checked. They report Q4 earnings at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 20 (same day of options expiration). For 420 bucks you could play a straddle with one contract on each side of the $20 strike.

Oct. calls & puts

[Rob]

Columbus Day Data Dump?

So, is the Huge One going to come down from the mountain today and bless us all with the Columbus Day Data Dump?

[Rob]

Rob, interesting you suggest all the bad news is priced in...how do you evaluate that effectively and accurately? Obviously you're talking strictly about FA and it's a subjective view but how do you attempt to measure it? Good luck with your long.

IMCL is up 9%+ since this post. Are you yet convinced? This stock has been bottoming for almost two years. That recent foray into the lower 40s was a harbinger of more to come, IMO.

I don't have a magic formula for calculating its valuation, but I've been following this company like a hawk for so long, I have a pretty good "feel" for it. The fact that the stock is up significantly today on the resignation of two board members, David M. Kies, Chmn., and William W. Crouse, despite a cut today in the Q4 Erbitux sales forecast by an analyst, underscores what I've been saying, i.e. that the undervaluation of this company is largely due to the perception that its management has been incompetent.

I should have played it in the POTW this week; it's up almost 6% since the Monday open.

[Rob]

EBAY is getting really close to my 5% trailing stop, which works out to be 29.04. On the suspicion that a lot of 5% trailing stops have been set, and that a lot of market makers want to try and pick up a lot of those shares, I went and changed it to a stop limit order at 28.89. I'm willing to risk the loss of a few extra bucks in case it hits that 5% number and heads north again.

[Rob]

EBAY Sold

I got stopped out of my EBAY position at 28.89. I opened it July 14 at 25.60.

So it worked out to be a 12.85% gain in a little less than 13 weeks. I can live with that.

But what ticks me off is that until that small plane crashed into that building on 72nd St. in Manhattan, it looked like EBAY had already bottomed for the day and my position was still intact. The plane crash, which occurred at 2:45 p.m., caused a spike down at the worst possible time and caused me to get stopped out. Now I'll just have to wait and see if the price will come back down again, on its own this time, before I'll climb on board again.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Too bad. Think of all the stops that must have triggered.

I opine that we'll be hearing from Cosmic about this.

---------billyjoe