Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

QUESTION: would you buy either stock in a "buy and hold" portfolio?

Not unless I studied up on their products and business model and had reason to expect future growth.

[Rob]

Omnivision Technology (OVTI)

OVTI is an awesome company with awesome products, and I lost a ton of money investing in this stock a couple years ago, because I was holding a lot of it when they had to restate earnings for a few prior quarters. Even though the restatement resulted in an increase in reported earnings, the stock dropped like a rock. I thought I'd never consider owning this stock again. The P/E is now < 9, and when I run across stories such as this one, I'm tempted to start following it again.

__________________________________________________ __________

OmniVision Secures Top Tier Design Win for Commercial Security Camera Market

09-26-06 08:30 AM EST
SAN DIEGO, Sept. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- At the opening day of the annual ASIS International security trade show, OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: OVTI), a leading independent supplier of CMOS CameraChip(TM) image sensors for high-volume applications, unveiled the new OV7949 advanced CMOS CameraChip sensor designed specifically for commercial CCTV/video monitoring security systems. OmniVision also announced the OV7949 has already been selected by a major U.S.-based tier one customer of commercial grade security cameras.

The highly integrated, single-chip OV7949 video camera chip sensor, based on OmniVision's proprietary OmniPixel(TM) architecture, is a pin-compatible upgrade to its predecessor, the OV7940. The OV7949 packs a high level of functionality with a brand new design specifically engineered to operate extremely well in low-light conditions, a feature especially critical to indoor and night security monitoring systems. Besides excellent performance in near dark environments, the new OV7949 also shows significant reduction in blooming and smearing effects and operates exceptionally well in extreme temperatures.

The OV7949 single-chip solution simplifies the process of manufacturing and implementing security camera systems. The 1/3-inch OV7949 is ideal for applications requiring a high performance video camera with a small footprint, low voltage and low power consumption. It supports NTSC/PAL composite video output and can directly interface with a TV monitor or other devices with 75 Ohm loading.

The OV7949 will be on display at OmniVision's booth (#325 at ASIS International. The OV7949 is currently available in both 48-pin CLCC and QFP packages.

[New-born baby]

Imcl

I see your IMCL baby has busted up through the $30 marker. Nice ride for you. CON-grats!

[Rob]

I see your IMCL baby has busted up through the $30 marker. Nice ride for you. CON-grats!

Nice so far. I'm thinking of buying puts, because the FDA is expected to render a decision on an Erbitux competitor this week. I'm afraid they might get approved, end even though it will be only as a single agent therapy (all they have data for) the news will characteristically hurt ImClone, because the press continues to ignore this important difference, and all most will see is 'Erbitux competitor threatens ImClone's market share.' And the poor ImClone management lets such press, slanted by half-truth, go unrefuted by the facts. I'm hoping now that Icahn is on the B.O.D. their M.O. will change.

[spikefader]

Imcl




IMCL daily chart today

[New-born baby]

Nice so far. I'm thinking of buying puts, because the FDA is expected to render a decision on an Erbitux competitor this week. I'm afraid they might get approved, end even though it will be only as a single agent therapy (all they have data for) the news will characteristically hurt ImClone, because the press continues to ignore this important difference, and all most will see is 'Erbitux competitor threatens ImClone's market share.' And the poor ImClone management lets such press, slanted by half-truth, go unrefuted by the facts. I'm hoping now that Icahn is on the B.O.D. their M.O. will change.

I hope you got those puts.

[Rob]

I hope you got those puts.

I did some calculations and decided against buying the puts. It's interesting—and a testament to the fact that all of IMCL's bad news is priced in—that it is performing quite well so far this morning (up 3%+ as I type), in spite of the fact that a direct competitor just received FDA approval. The only news left on the horizon now is potentially very good news to come in the 4th quarter.

[Rob]

IMCL - Some “Key Upcoming Milestones”

I purloined this info. from a very knowledgeable poster on one of the IMCL message boards, who qualifies it by stating: "it's not pinpoint accurate but it's some goals."

----------------------------------------

KEY UPCOMING MILESTONES

3Q06
• Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY, Not rated) stand-still agreement on IMCL expires on Sept 19, 2006
• Initiate Phase I study of 3G3 - 3Q06
• Data from open-label study of Erbitux in first-line colorectal cancer with Q2W vs. QW dosing presented at the 31st European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress in Istanbul, Turkey, September 29 – October 3

4Q06
• Data from Phase III CRYSTAL trial of FOLFIRI +/- Erbitux in first-line colorectal cancer in 4Q06
• Data from Phase III BMS-006 EPIC trial of Irinotecan +/- Erbitux in second-line colorectal cancer in 4Q06
• Data from Phase III National Cancer Institute of Canada trial 025 (NCIC 025) of best supportive care +/- Erbitux refractory colorectal cancer in 4Q06
• Data from CDP-791 Phase II trial in NSCLC in late 2006
• Date from Phase III BMS-1000 trial of Platinum and Gemcitabine +/- Erbitux in 4Q06

2007
• Data from Phase II OPUS trial of FOLFOX +/- Erbitux in first-line colorectal cancer
• Data from Phase III SWOG-0204 trial of Gemcitabine +/- Erbitux in first-line pancreatic cancer in 1Q07
• Initiate Phase II study with 11F8 in 1Q07
• Initiate Phase II studies with 1121B in 1Q07
• Data from Phase III EXTREME trial of Platimum/5-FU +/- Erbitux in first-line head and neck cancer in 2Q07
• Initiate Phase II studies with A12 in 2Q07
• Initiate Phase III pivotal study with 1121B in 3Q07
• Data from Phase III BMS-099 trial of Taxol and Carboplatin +/- Erbitux in first-line NSCLC in 4Q07
• Data from Phase III FLEX trial of Cisplatin and Vinorelbine +/- Erbitux in first-line NSCLC
• Initiate Phase III pivotal study with 11F8 in 4Q07
• Initiate Phase II studies with 18F1 in 4Q07
• Initiate Phase II studies with 3G3 - 4Q07 in 1Q08
• Data from Phase III SELECT trial of Docetaxel or Pemetrexed +/- Erbitux in first-line NSCLC in 2007

2008
• Data from Phase III IMCL-0451 single agent trial of Erbitux in EGFR undetectable NSCLC in 1Q08
• Data from Phase III CAIRO II trial of XELOX and Avastin +/- Erbitux in first-line colorectal cancer in 2008
• Data from Phase III NCCTG trial of FOLFOX +/- Erbitux in adjuvant colorectal cancer by the end of 2008

[Rob]

Carl Icahn Is a Man of Action

Icahn is calling for the removal of 6 IMCL board members and the appointment of another. (If you care to check it out, here's the SEC filing.) I hope he succeeds.

[New-born baby]

Interesting

Very interesting price action. This stock has some real believers. Almost moved higher on bad news. That shows it has some real patriots behind it.

Chart-wise, we're looking at a triple bottom--almost a quad bottom. It's pretty easy to put a stop under this one, because if the bottom collapses, she's going to fall. But I think this is the bottom and its up from here. If someone wanted more shares, he could actually sell some puts and maybe pick some shares cheap.

[spikefader]

IMCL needs help!

"Not bird, not plane, not even frog, it's just little old me, (sounds of crashing)........ Underdog."
SssSssSss

Actually, NB, it really is interesting action....interestingly bearish imho. If I had more time I'd throw the 20-day hourly chart up, as well as updates on the others I've done. I do like your reference to the stop and I wonder how many longs actually have their stops sitting under here. I was actually surprized to read you think it's going up from here....but I like surprizes hehe I hope for Rob's sake you are right....but even you must see the descending triangle forming on the daily, price falling from gap resistances, closing today below the '03 gap support of $28.68, channels and bands bearish..................shoot, even P&F is bearish to $14.00! I suspect the "nice guy" in you is posting

Rob, interesting you suggest all the bad news is priced in...how do you evaluate that effectively and accurately? Obviously you're talking strictly about FA and it's a subjective view but how do you attempt to measure it? Good luck with your long.

[Rob]

Spike, I've composed two different replies to your note, neither of which I chose to post, because I don't want to start another fight. Bottom line: if you're so convinced IMCL is going down, just let me know at what price you're shorting it.

[Rob]

GOOG: Cup w/ Handle

[New-born baby]

Google

[URL=http://imageshack.us][IMG]

Rob,
Yeah, from July thru today does seem to form a cup with handle on the daily. That's a bullish signal. Goog also has heavy support at the $375 thru the $400 levels. What troubles me about it all is the conflicting bullish signal with the bearish signals. For example, Goog has had a bearish 50/200 day ma cross in early August, and what usually happens (from my observation), is that a stock will rally above that cross, and then sink below the 200 day. If GooG falls below $394.66, that's pretty bearish for the stock. Then other troubling issue is the symmetrical triangle GooG is forming right now. It hasn't broken out either way; but when it does it signals a HUGE, MM sized move of $150 per share! Conservative traders will wait for the breakout to make sure they are right about the direction. Lastly GOOG is either a great buy here (it has heavy support at $398.94), or a great short here. In other words, GOOG is right on the knife edge of a perfect entry long or short, depending which was the triangle breaks. (I should mention that what usually happens is that a stock will break support to the south, and then retest the support level before preceding south. That heavy support line is $398.94).

Sorry for the handysnap; its just too easy. And a question: when does GooG report?

[billyjoe]

Rob,
William O'Neil would say the right side of the cup is too low. If it drops that explains it, if not, you're right. I love TA.

--------------billyjoe